Sept-Oct Tweets on Tradewar, Fed, Repos, US economy, Argentina crisis, etc.

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Sept-Oct Tweets on Tradewar, Fed, Repos, US economy, Argentina crisis, etc.

October 9, 2019 by jackrasmus

Check out my Sept-Oct. Tweets on tradewar, the Fed, Repo market, US economic slowdown, income inequality, Argentina crisis, wages, jobs data accuracy, economic reports of interest, etc. (Follow me for immediate info posting at @drjackrasmus)
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Oct. 8
#tradewar

Why won’t Trump release Japan-US trade deal full text? Why is it being kept classified? Why did Trump deal leave untouched Japan’s $56B annual auto exports to the US? Or open up Japan’s auto market to US exports to Japan? Is deal Trump’s ‘back door’ to join the TPP?

Oct. 8
#tradewar

Trump signs ‘softball’ trade deal with Japan. Makes concessions for Japan to buy more US farm goods. Brags US agribusiness got $28B so far in direct subsidies & more coming in 2020–paid for by US consumers. Chase bank survey: $1K ave. household hit from tariffs so far.

Oct 6
#Fed

Trump v. Powell fight over lowering fed funds rate looks increasingly irrelevant, as repo mkt overtakes fed funds as key mkt. Ave. daily volume Treasuries traded in fed funds mtk=$68b. Ave. across repo mkts? $1 trillion. Lowering fed funds rate not about US economy, but US $

Oct 6
#tradewar

18 mos. of Trump trade wars and US trade deficit hits another record of $55b last month, a rate of $660b for 2019. Will reduce 3Q19 GDP, along with contracting manufacturing, construction, and business investment. Rising prices from tariffs soon to hit consumption next.

Oct 4
#repomarket

‘QE’ by another name already underway as Fed expands & extends its Repo market buying program to Nov. 12. In addition to Fed’s >$150b already injected, new longer term (6-14 day) purchases of $160b+more short term buying as well. Total $400-$500b in less than 2 mos.
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Oct 3
#USeconomy

My January 2019 prediction of US recession by 4Q19-1Q20 coming closer: US manuf. this week hits 10 yr. low; Services PMI falls to 52 (forecast at 55). Now watch for lagging jobs numbers for Sept & then Oct to catch up as well. Consumption will then follow by year end.
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Sep 24
#USeconomy

With construction, manufacturing, bus. investment slowing, flat, or contracting, only sector holding up US econ is consumers. Chase Bank research estimates $1k hit to households starting Sept. due to tariffs. Consumer confidence expectations Sept contracting, 106 to 95

Sep 23
#Fed

The Repo mkt instability means Fed is back where it was decade ago: QE again, now thru a permanent Repo facility soon. Now even before full financial crisis. Hundreds of billions $ injected so far. How much more to come? Meaning? Mkts addicted to every more money injections
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Sep 19
#repos

The Fed’s piling $ into Repo mkt 4 days in a row now. What’s up? Is Repo mkt next locus of financial instability? energy junk bonds; BBB corporates; leveraged loans; CDOs? Listen to my radio show friday for discussion at
Alternative Visions

Sep 19
#Argentina

stats tell the tale: inflation up 57%. Peso down 30%. Official unemployment 10.5% & accelerating. Benchmark interest rate 14.5%…not least, stock market up 100% this year. IMF wants more austerity: consumer tax hikes, layoffs, higher utility prices, sell govt assets.

Sep 19
#incomeinequality

biggest driver of inequality is not falling wages; it’s stock buybacks & dividend payouts. Will exceed $1.3T this year for F500 corps alone. Microsoft announces another $40B buybacks + 11% more dividends from its $52B profits this year. Prior buyback was $35.7B
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Sep 17
#Fed

Why will Fed cut interest rates another 0.25% tomorrow, when banks are sitting on $1.45 trillion in excess (i.e. loanable) reserves already? With inflation officially at 1.6% (actually>2% Fed target)? And unemployment officially at 3.7%? Why? Cuz $US too high and rising.

Sep 17
#tradewar

Trump’s paying US farmers almost $30B so far in aid as China cuts US farm purchases. Who’s getting the $30B? Recent study shows top 1% (agribus/big farmers) got ave. $180,000; bottom 80% got $5k in aid. 12,800 US farmers went under in 2018, first yr. Trump’s trade war.

Sep 16
#Pharma

Perdue pharma cuts a legal deal today to shield itself from further legal suits, as Sackler family members quietly divert their billions$ to safe havens. 50,000 opioid deaths in the US annually; prescription opioids pushed by companies like Perdue responsible for 36,000.

Sep 15
#Oil

Will Saudi Oil sites drone strike reduce global supply & raise US gas prices? US produces 12m bpd, uses < 12, & exports 3m bpd. Has 544mb strategic reserve + ? more private reserves. Saudis have 188m reserve. US can cut exports or use reserves but won't. Gas prices will rise
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Sep 14
#USrecesssion

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of Doubleline & predictor past US recessions, says 75% chance US recession by end 2020. Adds no deal on trade with China before. Growing list of big investors predicting same. Current mkts & US economy='dead cat bounce'. My same forecast.

Sep 13
#IMF

now engaged in 'tightening the screws' further on Argentina, by withholding sending next tranche of $56 billion bailout until it sees Argentina imposing even more austerity on households to pay it back. Argentina economic crisis contagion to Uruguay underway, and then Brazil
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Sep 12
#tradewar

Trump signals willing to accept a 'partial' deal with China. Meaning? US will take China concessions already on the table (51% US ownership in China, China buys $1 trillion more US farm goods, etc.) and settle for later deal on nextgen technology (5G, AI, cybersecurity)

Sep 11
#income

Govt says median income up only 0.9% in 2018, statistically insignificant from prior year. So who got the reported 3.1% wage gains last year? Tech engineers, professionals, supervisors, advance degreed, etc. All skewed to the top. Studies show 60% got no wage hike at all.
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Sep 10
#Bolton

Trump fires neocon NS advisor Bolton today. Why not. Bolton architect of failure to get deal with N. Korea, failure to bring about regime change in Venezuela, push for war with Iran, and stalled trade deal with China. Trump wants resolution on all areas by 2020 election

Sep 9
#Finance

capitalists stick together. Billionaire Singer's Elliot Mgmt attacking AT&T. Wants break up. Owns lot of stock. Will make millions. Trump (a commercial property speculator) applauds move. Why? AT&T owns CNN, which Trump hates. Trump got billions for Singer. Now payback.
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Sep 9
#tradewar

US Treas. Sec'y, Mnuchin, today said Oct. mtg with China to focus on China currency manipulation. But China's been entering mkts to prevent Yuan devaluing, not opposite. Does Mnuchin want China to let it devalue? And offset Trump tariffs? Manipulation claim is nonsense

Sep 7
#tariffwar

Who's winning US-China tariff war? China is. Despite Trump's $375B tariffs, US imports from China last month rose 6.4%; conversely, China imports from US fell 3.3%. US goods deficit with China rising. Record deficits too with Japan and EU now. 18 mo. war & no progress.

Sep 6
#FannieMae

Trump proposes privatizing Fannie/Freddie. What's behind it? Big profits for hedge funds & other speculators in new IPO of F/F + access to future profits now going to Govt. Result: home buyers 30yr. mortgages will rise significantly. Thus, more income inequality shift

Sep 6
#jobs

Want to know why the real unemployment rate in the US today is 10% at minimum, not the 3.7% peddled by the mainstream media? Check out my latest blog post, 'What's the Real Unemployment Rate in the US'
.
Sep 4
#USeconomy

US joins Germany, UK, Japan, etc. in global manufacturing recession. BIG drop in US PMI last month from 51.2 to 49.1 (<50=recession)+ Univ Michigan consumer index falls most since 2012 + After 18 mos & $500B tariffs on China, US trade deficit with it still expanding

Sep 3
#India

US-China trade war, UK hard Brexit, German-EU recession, global manuf. contraction, Italian banks, Argentina default, global oil price deflation…but watch out India as point of crisis: Banks defaulting, scandals, record non-performing bad debt, consumption falling, etc.

Sep 2
#wages

Multiple independent surveys (Bankrate, Payscale, McKinsey, etc.) show wages are not rising by 3.1% as US Govt claims. Want to know why? Check out my latest blog post for Labor Day
.
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Aug 31
#Fed

Does anyone still believe Fed policy is about keeping inflation at 2% & reducing unemployment? Fed to cut rates again Sept., when inflation is 1.6% and falling, and UE rate=3.8%. Fed's real target is stock & currency prices. Ditto Europe, UK, Japan, & central banks worldwide
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Aug 30
#currencywar

Trump complains today Euro currency falling. Makes EU exports more competitive with US by lowering Euro + will offset future US tariffs on EU. US must cut rates to lower $ but $ rising. World now entering "currency devaluations by competitive interest rate cutting"

Aug 29
#tradewar

today China says won't retaliate to Trump's latest tariffs hike before mtg. Will Trump also back off? Neocons now running US trade policy want China capitulation on nextgen tech (AI, 5G, cybersec) before deal. Behind trade war is technology war. Tech issue=crux to deal

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Aug 29
#Argentina

looks like 'Greek Debt Crisis writ large' as investors see default coming on $56B IMF loan. IMF now negotiating a restructuring & extending of its debt. Will demand in turn more austerity and for longer period. Greek debt crisis and economic depression 2010-18 deja vu!

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