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Listen to my latest 20 min. radio interview of November 23, 2022 on economic issues of the day, including latest Fed minutes for November and future trajectory of rate hikes; shortages of various oil fuels this winter (diesel, home heating, natural gas, etc.) and pass through of costs into prices by monopolistic US corporations; price caps sanctions on oil by US/EU and their inevitable collapse; and collapse of crypto company, FTX, and its possible contagion effects. FTX’s connection to Ukraine and its FTT digital currency collapse.

TO LISTEN GO TO:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/122WSdgY8OqvzzQG2AvuhHM3W7SrVTjAv/view

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For my analysis of the key results of the recent US midterm Congressional elections on November 8, listen to my November 18 Alternative Visions radio show–i.e. why there was no ‘red wave’ (as I predicted publicly on Nov. 5 there wouldn’t be); why the election 2022 was virtually a repeat of 2020 outcomes; and what the two parties are likely to do (and not do) in the next two years. (Also, the show includes some brief comments on the Fed’s admitting now that recession is inevitable + comments on the bankruptcy announcement of the crypto currency company, FTX, and its apparent money laundering activities in Ukraine).

TO LISTEN GO TO:

https://alternativevisions.podbean.com/e/alternative-visions-takeaways-from-us-midterm-election/

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

Republicans spinning their taking control of the US House. Democrats spinning their wasn’t a red wave. So what’s the significance of the recent midterm Congressional elections? My answer: as the French say, plus ce change, rien ce change’ (Everything changes but nothing changes). In today’s show Dr. Rasmus provides his analysis of the midterm elections, making the central point that there’s been little change in the midterms from 2020 alignments because both parties offered little different to the voters in 2022 than they did in 2020. Rasmus reviews the proposals and strategies of both parties in some detail, revealing neither offered voters much of any substance. The more important outcome was the DeSantis strong win in Florida, which opens a political pissing match in the Republican party between Trump and DeSantis. Today’s show also comments on the Federal Reserve governor, Esther George, statement today that the Fed might not be able to bring down inflation without recession, admitting more rate hikes coming and 100% certain recession (already here) after the holidays. The show ends with a comment on the implosion of the crypto currency firm, FTX; the possible financial contagion effects; and its Ukraine money laundering connections. (see Dr. Rasmus blog, jackrasmus.com, this weekend for a written article on the recent midterm election).

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The following are a few of my reflections and predictions on the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections coming up I shared with my Twitter followers.

My prediction #1: Dems lose 2-4 net Senate seats: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire. Repubs gain 8-12 US House seats at minimum. After election, Repubs policy turns to ‘austerity’, cutting social spending (slowing Ukraine wear spending but raising China war prepraration spending). PA Senate race 50-50. If Repubs win, Dems lose 3-5 seats.

Dem strategy = focus on women’s repro & voting rights & Jan. 6. Ignore inflation & blame high prices on world events (which Biden helped create). They hope to turn out base this way. But inflation & crime will keep independents from turning out or will vote Republican

I predict youth voter turnout also to be very low (along with independent voters). Think it may have something to do with Biden’s ‘too little, too late’ student debt relief? (still not implemented, stuck in bureaucratic wrangling & getting reduced every day)

Key for Democrats will be turnout, especially from suburbanites and independent voters. Polls show main issues for them is inflation and crime. Not good for Democrats. Pollsters say 44 Dem House seats are ‘tossups’; 20 Republican seats. Not good odds for Dems

Biden’s approval rating is down to 44%. When Obama’s hit 45% in 2010, Democrats lost the US House by 40 seats. Ditto Bill Clinton in 1994

Fact: only twice in past 100 yrs has the US House not shifted parties in midterm elections. In 2022 there’s the narrowest 5 seat Dem majority of all the past mid-election years. 2nd Fact: this time 81% voters in polls say issue is inflation and economy

Just released Reuters poll shows Biden approval rating now at just 40%. That 5%-6% less than both Obama (2010) and Clinton (1994) when Dems lost more than 40 House seats in each case.

Biden hypes his reducing US budget by > $1 trillion, but ignores how he did it: by early cutoff of Covid aid to households in his March 2021 Covid Relief Act. His proposal to raise $3T in corp-wealthy taxes over decade cut to $309B-mostly on corps with $1B revenue

Biden & Dems trying to ‘talk up’ his recent ‘Chips & Science Act’ ($280B slush fund to bribe semiconductor corps to relocate to US) and ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ ($518B that reduced inflation in name only and had virtually no effect on prices)

Biden publicly ‘threatens’ US oil corps for price gouging. Says he may ‘consider’ windfall profits tax. Just election talk. He hasn’t even discussed a meeting with his aides to begin considering it. No action after election. Repub Congress won’t even consider it

My prediction #2: Biden will go along with Repub. Congress 2023-24 cutting social program spending. Spins it saying he reduced their cuts. Inflation + recession in 2023. Biden doesn’t run again in 2024, saying he has a ‘health’ issue. Trump announces 2024 this week.

Biden’s release of oil from US Petroleum Reserve has proved totally ineffective. Why? US oil corps’ using refinery capacity as way to create bottleneck & keep supply short and prices high for gasoline; now diesel, home heating oil & natural gas + Oil corps exporting

Biden & Dems say inflation is global (supply side caused) & they aren’t responsible & can’t do anything about it. Not true. Biden sanctions primarily responsible for oil, energy, commodities inflation + he did nothing about corp price gouging + no tax on oil corps

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Listen to my two latest 15 min. radio interviews commenting on last week’s jobs numbers, the Fed’s latest rate hike & its global consequences, US GDP 3rd Qtr,, how the oil companies keep energy inflation rising, and the new forces coming online (productivity collapse & rising unit labor costs) ensuring inflation will remain high. Why Fed will keep raising rates, and why  other central banks will follow as their currencies collapse. A comment as well on US pentagon spending that is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2027 (and total war spending already over $1 trillion now and going to $2T by 2030).

Go to:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RkuU-KmAfj1YlIteqeLpOxb0IZQzxzUt/view

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1A2IImfywQreb_vs76JaZEhRY9lYNcE54/view

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In my October 31 Alternative Visions Radio Show I reflect on the current state of the war in Ukraine–military strategy, economic sanctions & geopolitical. Also initial comments on the just released preliminary US GDP numbers for July-Sept. 2022.

To Listen Go to: https://alternativevisions.podbean.com/e/alternative-visions-reflections-on-the-war-in-ukraine-us-gdp-global-economic-update/

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Dr. Rasmus provides an analysis of US economic trends as US GDP preliminary report shows US economy barely growing in third quarter 2022. What’s happening in Housing, Techs, Consumer spending, Business investment, net exports. Also, the destabilizing effects of current Fed rate hikes (another 75 basis pts coming next week) via the appreciation of the US dollar and corresponding collapse of foreign currencies, including the Euro, pound, yen and China Yuan. The longer term risk, beginning to emerge of dollar rise on global financial system. In the second half hour of the show Dr. Rasmus provides his reflections on the war in Ukraine: military, economic and political. Recent events and comments on US/NATO side and Russia that reveal further drift toward legitimizing and using tactical nuclear weapons. US-Russian meeting for the first time in 6 months by Austin-Shoigu and US moving advanced nukes into Europe and US 101st Airborne division on Romania-Ukraine border near Odessa. Rasmus critiques Russia’s initial ‘Special Military Operation’ strategy and why it failed; Ukraine’s summer mobilization and offensive’s results. Putin’s military miscalculations in March and August 2022, why now Russia is mobilizing for war, and why this winter its offensive will dramatically change the conflict. Show concludes with analysis why sanctions on Russia have not succeeded and how US/NATO are drifting toward a direct confrontation with Russia as it mobilizes. (Next week’s show: US Midterm Elections analysis & predictions)

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Listen to my October 21, 2022 Alternative Visions radio show for a different perspective on the growing global economic and political crises.

TO LISTEN GO TO:

https://alternativevisions.podbean.com/e/alternative-visions-personalities-behind-the-crises/

Show Announcement

Today’s show takes a different emphasis than in the past by focusing on key personalities and their roles in the growing economic and political crises in the US and world. Dr. Rasmus discusses former UK prime minister, Liz Truss, who was just ousted by the UK’s bond vigilantes and finance capitalists. What did Liz do to get thrown under the bus? Rasmus shows her proposals, for which she was deposed, were not much different than Ronald Reagan’s in 1981-83. Rasmus explains why the UK’s current crisis is actually ‘Made in the USA’. Steve Bannon’s ‘slap on the hand’ court decision and its implications are next discussed. Thereafter Elon Musk’s flirting with a more neutral position in the Ukraine war and the shitstorm against him it’s released. Nouriel Roubini’s declaration we are already in World War 3, followed by Mohammed El-Erian’s raising of the bogeyman that maybe the Fed shouldn’t be so ‘independent’. Rasmus discusses the Fed fake issue of central bank independence, covered in detail in his 2017 book, ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes: Monetary Policy and the Coming Depression’. (Check out Dr. Rasmus blog, jackrasmus.com, this Sunday for his blogpost and proposals to democratize the Fed). The show comments further on the meeting between US and Russian defense ministers, Austin and Shoigu, Zelensky’s latest rants, Mario Draghi’s declaration of Europe now in recession, and concludes with soon to be Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy’s, public statements on likely Republican economic and war policies after the Nov. midterm elections. (Next week’s show will address the midterm election issues).

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A couple of my radio interviews (10-18 min.) of this past week:

Oct. 19 Critical Hour Radio show:

Condition of global supply chains and factors (containers, insurance, price-gouging, commodities speculation, $ appreciation) driving supply side inflation; US $ at heart of global economic instability and driving global inflation; role of Fed in the process.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/15PnHLhgIzCFuefD1aNwzqJHFipOOVojZ/view

Oct. 21 Critical Hour Radio show

Latest on US deficit and why it’ll rise again in 2023 as recession whacks tax revenues and war spending rises further 2023. Why fiscal austerity (social programs) is on agenda again in ’23. Parallels with Obama and Clinton years. Europe’s economic crisis and the role of US sanctions, Fed rate hikes & US $ in exacerbating Europe’s crisis.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uCae7iiIntOvCY5qETmJEOsbm-rQ6UVu/view

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The latest CPI inflation report is dissected and analyzed, showing US inflation is ‘hot’ and chronic. The report ensures another Fed 75 pts rate hike early November and likely another thereafter. Nonetheless Fed rate hikes will have only partial effect on US inflation, although the Fed’s unprecedented pace and size of interest rate hikes is already having unintended consequences: While it’s impact on US inflation is limited (most US inflation due to supply problems not excess demand), Fed rate hikes are driving global collapse of currencies, recession outside US, as well as pushing capitalist financial system into crisis (watch UK pension funds, EU Credit Suisse bank, and US bond markets’ liquidity crisis).

Listen to my October 14 Alternative Visions Radio Show.

GO TO:

https://alternativevisions.podbean.com/e/alternative-visions-inflation-the-fed-us-and-global-consequences/

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

Dr. Rasmus discusses the CPI report released this past week and identifies the four sections responsible for the chronic inflation: food, energy, shelter and transport. Why the four will continue to keep inflation high over the winter. Why most of CPI is still supply side driven and not demand. Why Fed escalating rate hikes can address only Demand side causes of the inflation and therefore prices will remain in the 4-5% range despite the deeper recession coming 2023. Rasmus discusses why inflation in Europe is worse than the USA and how Fed rate hikes exacerbate inflation there and elsewhere in the rest of the world. The show concludes with discussion of some of the consequences of the Fed rate hikes (in USA and globally), including why rate hikes (Fed and UK) are contributing to growing financial instability in Britain—which is a case example of what may occur later elsewhere in Europe. Comparisons of the 2008 Lehman Brothers crash with the current emerging financial crisis in Britain.

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Remember last fall 2021 when Fed said inflation ‘temporary’ and waited six months to do anything about it? Now, fall 2022, Fed pushing rates up fast, unconcerned about precipitating deeper US and global recession, global currency crisis, and possible financial crash (watch Credit Suisse bank as frontline candidate). Listen to my October 5, Alternative Visions radio show for the discussion, as well as my commentary on OPEC’s thumbing its nose at Biden and US/NATO silly ‘price cap’ on Russian oil and for latest developments in Ukraine war with Biden and Zelensky both talking up possibility of nuclear war.

TO LISTEN GO TO: https://alternativevisions.podbean.com/e/alternative-visions-global-capitalist-instability-rising/

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

Dr. Rasmus views consequences of Fed rate hikes continuing on US financial markets, global currencies crisis, and capitalist financial instability. How Fed rate hikes accelerate the dollar and in turn export US inflation to emerging and other advanced offshore economies. Why Fed’s plan is to keep raising rates and there is no ‘pivot’ that US stock markets want to see. Unlike in 2013, the Fed rate hikes will continue despite the negative effects on offshore capitalist economies. Rasmus then discusses the implications of the Saudi-OPEC crude oil production cuts, why the EU’s ‘price cap’ on oil will fail, and what’s possibly behind the recent sabotage of the two Nordstream pipelines. Financial fragility in the case of Euro bank, Credit Suisse, is discussed as is the weak spots in the global real and financial economy. Show concludes with some comments on latest military developments in Ukraine war plus the growing US/Ukraine media campaign (Biden, Zelensky, etc.) messaging the US should use its first strike nuclear doctrine on Russia before it does.

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Ever wonder how the phrase ‘US exports its inflation and unemployment to other economies’ because the $US dollar is the global currency and lynchpin of the US economic empire?  Listen to my Oct 5 interview with Critical Hour radio show (15 min.) where I explain the process of US exporting its inflation & recession in simple terms.

GO TO: https://drive.google.com/file/d/18HrirjGvMf00mcSx8bhHbFA4DY8GmHBx/view

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