After months of escalating tit-for-tat tariff increases, and bringing the global economy to the precipice of a global currency war, the US and China agreed to a partial deal on their trade dispute this past week.

Trump heralds the deal as Phase 1 of an historic agreement, subsequent phases to follow. But is this the end of the US-China trade conflict? Will phase 2, to begin after the signing of Phase 1 five weeks from now, wrap up the remaining issues? Or will Phase 1 just announced be all that the parties will agree to over restructuring their trade relations (and money capital flows)? Other questions of import include: who got the better end of the Phase 1 deal—China or Trump?

Why did Trump settle for the partial deal that China was calling for, and not the ‘big deal’ that Trump was declaring publicly he wanted or else there’d be no deal? Why did Trump concede to a lesser partial deal now instead of pressing for his ‘big deal’? Not least, what is the likelihood the remaining, unresolved issues will be concluded before the US 2020 elections?

A Brief Historical Recap

The US-China trade dispute erupted publicly in March 2018. Its origins, however, go back to August 2017, when the Office of US Trade Representative (USTR) issued a preliminary report charging that China’s ‘2025 Plan’ projected passing the US in next generation technology development (5G wireless, Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity). China’s plan represented a fundamental challenge to US global economic—and military—hegemony next decade, according to the USTR. That initial USTR report was followed by a second report released in March 2018 that concluded and confirmed what the first had raised: i.e. China represented a threat in nextgen technology development that the US could not ignore. The trade war with China only then commenced, with Trump imposing an initial $50 billion in tariffs on China imports.

An initial tentative agreement was reached between the main negotiators, the US team led at the time by US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, in May 2018. That tentative deal was quickly scuttled, however, as US neocons, China hardliners, Pentagon, and the US Military Industrial Complex and friends in Congressional defense appropriations committees organized their forces and got Trump to nix the deal. The scuttled deal included China agreeing to buy $1 trillion more in US farm goods over five years and agreeing to allow US banks and financial institutions to have 51% ownership control of their operations in China. China reiterated the concessions over the summer of 2018, to no avail. The main issue was not the US trade deficit. Nor IP guarantees. Nor tech sharing of US companies in China. Nor even majority ownership of US operations in China. The main issue was the development of nextgen technologies—AI, 5G, and cyber. US Neocons aligned with the Pentagon-Military Industrial Complex, now led by Robert Lighthizer, the head of the USTR, Peter Navarro, special trade adviser to Trump, and subsequently later in 2019, John Bolton, demanded China slow, and even share its nextgen technology development with the US, or else no deal!

Negotiations stalled thereafter as Trump turned his focus to the NAFTA 2.0 negotiations and the 2020 midterm elections approached. Negotiations were restarted in January 2019 after the midterm elections, and another five months of negotiations between the parties took place until another tentative deal was reached in May 2019. That tentative deal once again was blown up at the last minute by the Lighthizer-Navarro neocon faction now in control of negotiations, with Mnuchin in tow as a co-chair. As the China delegation prepared to come to the US to sign off in May 2019, the US raised new demands: China had to share its nextgen technology development with the US, cease subsidizing its state owned enterprises, and provide assurances it would not devalue its currency to offset US tariffs (which now totaled $200 billion). Furthermore, US tariffs would remain in effect even if an agreement were reached, according to the US. All these demands were publicly communicated in the week prior to the May 2019 meeting in Washington D.C. when the deal was scheduled to be signed off. Understandably, the China delegation came and returned home in a day. The Neocons had scuttled a deal once again. Nextgen technology was the crux. Either China capitulated on nextgen tech or there was no deal, according to the Neocon-Pentagon position.

Trump thereafter met China president, Xi, in Osaka Japan at the G20 meeting and both agreed once again to restart negotiations. Both also agreed to keep a hold on the level of existing tariffs and not raise them further in the meantime. But Trump broke the pledge in late July 2019 when, on advice of his neocon trade negotiators, he raised tariffs on the remaining $250 billion of China imports. The understanding with Xi not to raise more tariffs was thus shattered. China raised tariffs of its own on US goods in response.

Trump threatened to raise existing tariffs by another 5%, to 25% and 30%, and levy more on all remaining China imports in December 2019. The trade war was intensifying. China stopped intervening briefly in global money markets to prevent its currency, the Yuan, from devaluing and allowed it to fall 5%-7%–a move that essentially negated Trump’s additional 5% tariff hike. Stock and bond markets swooned on the prospect of a trade war now morphing into a currency war. The trade war, based mostly on tariff hikes, was about to expand the economic conflict beyond mere tariff measures. Tariffs were already slowing the global economy; a currency war would quickly spread beyond US and China and inject even more instability into the slowing global economy. Both China and Trump peered over the cliff of a pending broader economic war between the two economies—and then backed off.

Trump’s September 2019 Retreat

Fast forward, the outcome by September 2019 was yet another resumption of negotiations between the two parties, followed by the announcement last week of a ‘Phase 1’ deal on trade.

So why did Trump ‘stand down’ and agree to a deal now, after escalating his threats and actions over the summer? The reasons clearly have to do with the US economy softening in the 3rd quarter combined with a growing discontent in the farm sector over Trump’s handling of a trade dispute that was beginning to bite hard on US farm sector sales that were heavily dependent on exports to China.

As the trade dispute between the countries had intensified over 2018-19, Trump had placated farm interests by providing an extra $28 billion in direct farm subsidies. But it wasn’t enough. According to some sources, no fewer than 12,000 farms went bankrupt in 2018 alone. The $28 billion was going mostly to agribusiness and not getting down to independent farmers who needed it most. Farm sector trade associations were demanding Trump settle the trade dispute and their voices grew louder after the August escalation between the US and China.

So too were other notable business groups, like the US Chamber of Commerce and Business Roundtable, raising their complaints about the now rapid deterioration of the negotiations. The trade war was beginning to clearly impact general business investment and manufacturing in the Midwest US, and not only in the US but worldwide. US business investment on new plant and equipment turned negative in the 2nd quarter and promised to continue to slump, while business inventory investment was also being pared. The trade war was beginning to impact beyond the farm sector. By August the US manufacturing sector began to contract, joining what had now become a global manufacturing recession. Moreover, at the end of August it was also beginning to appear that the manufacturing contraction in the US was potentially spilling over to the larger services sector. While manufacturing PMIs were contracting in the US, the even larger Services sector PMI had begun to decelerate sharply in terms of growth rate. Of equal concern, the new round of Trump tariffs on consumer goods now threatened to slow US consumer spending—the only sector of the economy still holding up in terms of growth. Chase bank research was estimating that, with the new Trump tariffs on China consumer good imports set for September and December, consumer spending would be reduced on average by no less than $1,000 per household.

It was this growing economic slowdown in the US—combined with the growing political discontent in the farm sector and from other major non-farm business organizations—that pushed Trump to concede into last week’s Phase 1 deal. Trump’s 2020 election interests had become more paramount than the concerns of the neocons and militarists who were demanding China capitulate on the nextgen tech issue or no deal. A rapid about face by Trump occurred by late August-early September and China was once again invited to resume talks in Washington in early October.

The content of the Phase 1 deal reached October 11, 2019 last week reveals that Trump abandoned his ‘big deal or no deal’ position and retreated from the neocon ‘non negotiable’ demand, that was holding up a deal since May 2018, that China capitulate on the nextgen tech issue or no deal.

Placating his farm sector political base to get China to resume purchases, and taking China’s 51% ownership concession desperately wanted by US big banks (i.e. the primary demand of the Mnuchin faction on the US negotiating team), became Trump’s new priority demand in Phase 1. The nextgen technology issue so critical to the neocons was clearly demoted and removed from the bargaining table by the US. In Phase 1 China got its ‘partial’ deal—and absent any concessions on the nextgen tech issue. That was left for a Phase 2 or even Phase 3, as Trump put it in his press conference the same day. Trump got what the China delegation had already offered way back in 2018: i.e. 51% ownership and resumption of big purchases of US farm products.

In short, Trump caved in and in effect “took the money and ran”. His 2020 re-election interests took precedence over the neocon-military concerns over China’s nextgen tech development.

What’s In the Phase 1 Deal?

Important to note, the Phase 1 deal itself is not yet a signed agreement. It’s a verbal understanding between Trump and China’s vice-premier and chief negotiator, Liu He. In his press conference announcing the deal on October 11, Trump admitted the parties were yet to sign off even on Phase 1 but hoped that it could be done within 5 weeks; that is by the time Trump and Xi meet again at the APEC conference in Chile in November.

Trump boasted repeatedly the Phase 1 deal included up to $40-$50 billion in new US farm purchases by China. Over what period was not clear, however. Trump vacillated from saying current levels of China farm purchases were $8 billion, or maybe $16 billion, or was $17 billion at prior peaks. He really didn’t know. Or maybe it was $20 billion, as one side comment was made in the press conference. It sounded like $40 billion was the target agreed to in principle and over the course of the next two years. But that was the ceiling apparently. Trump declared there’s “never been a deal of this magnitude for the American farmer”. Of course that wasn’t true. But the Trump hyperbole and spin was in.

Another major agreement area in Phase 1, according to Trump, was China’s confirmation it would allow US companies to own 51% of their operations in China. As Trump put it, “banks will be very very happy”. More US multinational corporations could now shift even more production to China.
What was agreed to in ‘IP, or intellectual property’ protections was left vague in Phase 1. Trump admitted only some IP issues were included in Phase 1 but didn’t say what. IP was mostly left to Phase 2, per Trump.

Equally vague was the understanding in Phase 1 on how China might agree not to devalue the Yuan, its currency. That was key to the US since devaluation would offset Trump tariffs. Trade representative, Lighthizer, provided some vague commentary during the Trump press conference about how China and the US would meet to work out some rules in that regard. But the devaluation issue itself was irrelevant. China had consistently over the preceding 15 months of trade war intervened in money markets to keep its currency from devaluing, and did so even as the rising US dollar was the primary cause of the pressure on the Yuan to devalue, as it other currencies worldwide as well. If anything was driving the devaluation it was the rising US dollar, not a policy action by China to enact a devaluation.

On the important tariff front, in Phase 1 Trump agreed only to suspend his threatened 5% tariff hike (raising rates from 25% to 30%) due the following week of October.

What’s NOT In Phase 1

What’s not in Phase 1 reveals clearly that Trump clearly capitulated on the nextgen tech issue in exchange for resumption of farm purchases and the 51% US bank ownership in China offer.

Tech issues were in general put off. As Trump declared, would be “largely done in Phase 2”, or maybe even a Phase 3. And Phase 2 would not begin until and if Phase 1 verbal understandings were ‘signed off’ in writing five weeks from now by Trump and Xi in Chile.

Further revealing no agreement on the strategic nextgen tech issue, Trump indicated the US would continue its policy attacking China’s 5G tech company, Huawei, as well as selectively ‘blacklist’ other Chinese AI companies in the US. That was, he added, “a separate process”. So the nextgen tech issue is now a separate track, in effect decoupled from the trade negotiations. It is very unlikely it will be reintroduced in Phase 2, should that subsequent round even occur, which is not likely in any substantive way before the 2020 US elections.

Also left out of Phase 1 was any US reduction of existing tariffs on China imports. That continuation of tariff levels included the $160 billion of China consumer goods exports to the US scheduled for December 15, 2019.

The US also apparently failed to attain its demand that China reduce its subsidies to its state owned enterprises—a strange proposal given that the US just subsidized its business sector with trillions of dollars with Trump’s 2018 tax cuts.

Some Predictions

For more than a year now this writer has been predicting that there would be no deal with China so long as the US negotiating team was dominated by the neocons and they continued to insist China capitulate on nextgen tech, or else no deal.

The related prediction, however, was that Trump would abandon the neocon-military interests’ prioritization of tech issues, and Trump would settle for concessions China already offered concerning US 51% majority ownership and farm purchases. The shift would occur, it was predicted, when the US economy significantly weakened—i.e. threatening Trump’s support in the farm sector and among US big business, and therefore his election in 2020.

The Phase 1 deal reflects just those predictions: Trump has decided to forego resolution of the tech issue and decided to take the money (farm purchases) and run. He has the full support of US big banks and manufacturing in so doing for their priority demand has always been the 51% ownership concession by China.
It is highly unlike there will be a ‘Phase 2’ in anything but a token discussion level.

And if there is, it is extremely unlikely it will include any meaningful concessions by China on next gen tech—i.e. AI, 5G, cybersecurity. China has now clearly prevailed in blunting Trump and the neocon offensive in that regard. For their part, Trump and US military-industrial-Pentagon interests will continue to pursue blocking China on the tech issue in ways decoupled from trade negotiations. Various other measures will now be the focus, such as attacking and blacklisting China tech companies in the US and even elsewhere among US allies. Perhaps even delisting them from US stock exchanges, as a recent Washington ‘trial balloon’ proposed. Trump did not go there on the eve of the recent negotiations. It would certainly have ‘blown up’ the trade deal once again if he had. But that—blacklisting and delisting—remain as likely US tactics in the months to come. For the technology war—i.e. the real war behind the tariffs and trade war—has only just begun between the two countries. And a broader economic war involving non-tariff measures is almost certain to erupt after the 2020 elections.

A ‘Phase 2’ follow up negotiations is tentatively set for after the Phase 1 sign off in November in Chile. Not much will come of it, however, so long as Trump insists on maintaining the current level of 25% tariffs on China imports to the US. Trump likes the current level of tariffs and the revenue it brings in, which allows him a somewhat independent source of financing for his domestic programs independent of the US Congress passing legislation and authorization bills which he now won’t get. On the other hand, Trump may temporarily suspend the planned tariff hikes on $160 billion of consumer goods due December 15, 2019 should the US economy continue to weaken in the 4th quarter, which is more likely than not. But it will be a temporary suspension, not a dropping of the tariffs.

The 15 month long US-China so-called trade war is over. There will be further discussions but no significant changes before the US 2020 election. What Trump got in Phase 1 is all he’s going to get. He’s probably promised the neocons, who have lost out on this Phase 1 deal, even more aggressive action against China companies doing business in the US. That’s there ‘concession prize’. Worst case, Phase 1 might not even be finalized, should the neocon-Pentagon-Military Industrial Complex faction regroup and try to scuttle the deal, once again for a third time. There’s always that possibility. Especially should Trump’s legitimacy fade further due to impeachment proceedings. It’s not impossible the Phase 1 verbal deal might also collapse but not likely at this point.

A Failed Trump Trade Policy

Trump’s trade war with China is clearly a net failure. Trump could have gotten the same deal back in 2018, more than a year ago. Instead, the dispute was allowed to escalate, with the effect of causing business uncertainty and slowing investment in the US and worldwide due to the 15 month trade war. The trade war has clearly played a part in the global manufacturing recession now underway, which threatens now to spread to services and consumption and precipitate a general recession in the US economy and possibly even worldwide.
Trump has pushed the global economy to the brink of a worldwide currency war in the process as well. He has drained $28 billion thus far from business and consumer spending in order to collect tariff revenues that he’s diverted in turn to the farm sector in subsidies that otherwise might not have been necessary. Small business, household consumers, and failing small farmers have paid the price and will continue to do so in higher prices from continuing tariffs.

Despite 15 months of trade war with China—and a series of ‘softball’ trade deals with South Korea, Japan, and Mexico-Canada—the US trade deficit as of August 2019 has reached record deficit levels of $55 billion that month and an annual rate of nearly $700 billion a year. The trade wars have been totally ineffective in reducing the US trade deficit—if that was ever the goal.

Who Benefits?

In net terms, the Trump trade wars have produced little for US capitalist business interests compared to what they already had going into the conflict in March 2018. Conversely, China has clearly prevailed in protecting its nextgen technology plans—i.e. the main target behind the US trade war identified back in August 2017 and launched March 2018 by the USTR and Trump. US agribusiness got their farm purchases renewed—and $28 billion in subsidies to boot. US big banks and multinational companies got their 51%. Trump got an independent executive branch source of revenue flow in the form of tariffs. The US consumer and small goods manufacturers and businesses get to pay for much of it all in the form of rising prices. And more US multinational companies will likely move more productions—and jobs—to China now that they have 51% ownership control.

In a broader picture of ensuring US global economic hegemony in the years ahead, if the Trump trade wars were to be about restructuring global capitalist trade relations favoring the US for another decade, then the outcome is also clearly a dismal failure. The Trump trade war with China has produced few net results in that sense. China prevailed this round in the technology war and will now seriously challenge the US in the 2020s in nextgen technology and the new industries it would create—as well as the new military technologies it portends. Meanwhile, Trump’s ‘other trade wars’ with US allies has similarly produced few net strategic results. They have been thus far ‘token softball’ deals that have merely tweaked existing trade relationships.

Trump’s trade wars have proven to be a lot of bombast, hyperbole, and smoke with no fire. Trump set up straw men opponents, to knock down and allow him to declare he has out-negotiated his president predecessors by rearranging global trade and money flow relations. But this is in fact not so, as history and the next decade will undoubtedly show.

Dr. Jack Rasmus
October 12, 2019

Dr. Rasmus is author of the forthcoming book, ‘The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Policy from Reagan to Trump’, Clarity Press, October 2019. He blogs at jackrasmus.com, his website is http://kyklosproductions.com, and he tweets at @drjackrasmus. Listen to his weekly radio show at http://alternativevisions.podbean.com .



Listen to my Oct. 9 (thursday) Critical Hour radio interview, reflecting on what’s behind the 4 months of Hong Kong protests + my assessment and prediction of a 60-40 probability of a US-China ‘light’ trade deal (which as of Oct. 11 has occurred).


For my analysis of media reports today on pending US-China ‘mini’ deal on trade check out my radio show analysis today on Alternative Visions show. (Also, discussion of recent reports just issued by the Bank of International Settlements and Financial Stability Board suggesting that shadow banks in the Repo market may be part of the problem for that market’s recent spike in interest rates).




Business and mainstream media today talking up a likely ‘mini’ deal on US-China trade. What’s behind it and what’s likely to be covered. China’s call for a ‘fair’ deal means a mini deal, minus any agreement on the nextgen tech issue. Trump’s ‘big deal’ will mean no tech issue resolution. So why is Trump now willing to take what’s on the table (same as last May 2019) and forego his ‘big deal’? Rasmus discusses the various economic reasons Trump may settle for less today, and continue attacking tech issue by other means. Is the ‘mini’ deal pending with China another ‘softball’ deal per So. Korea, Japan, USMCA, EU trade agts? Trump’s trade war a dismal failure, as US trade deficit hits record $55b in August. The second half of show revisits the Repo Market instability topic once again, provides updates on Fed’s $400 billion money injection, discusses whether it’s ‘QE’ again, and reviews just released BIS and FSB studies showing role of shadow banks in the Repo market may be part of the problem. The show closes with comments on 7m US auto loan defaults, and the chronic problem of a rising US dollar. (Next week: Neoliberalism as ‘Idea’ of academics and intellectuals vs. Neoliberalism in ‘Practice’)

US Neocons continue to drive US-No. Korea negotiations, as it now appears discussions with that country are essentially ‘dead in the water’. Listen to my interview with Critical Hour radio on how Trump and the US negotiates with adversaries: first by imposing sanctions, followed by threats that opponents must concede to US demands, and only thereafter will the US will consider possibly withdrawing some sanctions. How this approach to foreign policy in general is reflected in US-China trade negotiations, where the US has imposed tariffs, then demands China capitulate on the technology issue, and then says only then the US may reduce tariffs…maybe. The US pattern of demanding capitulation (instead of quid pro quo negotiations) first, and then the US will consider adjustments to its bargaining position, is today being repeated with No. Korea, China, Venezuela, Iran, and elsewhere. Why Trump’s approach and policy is not simply his own but is in full agreement by Democrat party leaders and the Pentagon as well.

    To Listen GO TO



Check out my Sept-Oct. Tweets on tradewar, the Fed, Repo market, US economic slowdown, income inequality, Argentina crisis, wages, jobs data accuracy, economic reports of interest, etc. (Follow me for immediate info posting at @drjackrasmus)
Oct. 8

Why won’t Trump release Japan-US trade deal full text? Why is it being kept classified? Why did Trump deal leave untouched Japan’s $56B annual auto exports to the US? Or open up Japan’s auto market to US exports to Japan? Is deal Trump’s ‘back door’ to join the TPP?

Oct. 8

Trump signs ‘softball’ trade deal with Japan. Makes concessions for Japan to buy more US farm goods. Brags US agribusiness got $28B so far in direct subsidies & more coming in 2020–paid for by US consumers. Chase bank survey: $1K ave. household hit from tariffs so far.

Oct 6

Trump v. Powell fight over lowering fed funds rate looks increasingly irrelevant, as repo mkt overtakes fed funds as key mkt. Ave. daily volume Treasuries traded in fed funds mtk=$68b. Ave. across repo mkts? $1 trillion. Lowering fed funds rate not about US economy, but US $

Oct 6

18 mos. of Trump trade wars and US trade deficit hits another record of $55b last month, a rate of $660b for 2019. Will reduce 3Q19 GDP, along with contracting manufacturing, construction, and business investment. Rising prices from tariffs soon to hit consumption next.

Oct 4

‘QE’ by another name already underway as Fed expands & extends its Repo market buying program to Nov. 12. In addition to Fed’s >$150b already injected, new longer term (6-14 day) purchases of $160b+more short term buying as well. Total $400-$500b in less than 2 mos.
Oct 3

My January 2019 prediction of US recession by 4Q19-1Q20 coming closer: US manuf. this week hits 10 yr. low; Services PMI falls to 52 (forecast at 55). Now watch for lagging jobs numbers for Sept & then Oct to catch up as well. Consumption will then follow by year end.
Sep 24

With construction, manufacturing, bus. investment slowing, flat, or contracting, only sector holding up US econ is consumers. Chase Bank research estimates $1k hit to households starting Sept. due to tariffs. Consumer confidence expectations Sept contracting, 106 to 95

Sep 23

The Repo mkt instability means Fed is back where it was decade ago: QE again, now thru a permanent Repo facility soon. Now even before full financial crisis. Hundreds of billions $ injected so far. How much more to come? Meaning? Mkts addicted to every more money injections
Sep 19

The Fed’s piling $ into Repo mkt 4 days in a row now. What’s up? Is Repo mkt next locus of financial instability? energy junk bonds; BBB corporates; leveraged loans; CDOs? Listen to my radio show friday for discussion at
Alternative Visions

Sep 19

stats tell the tale: inflation up 57%. Peso down 30%. Official unemployment 10.5% & accelerating. Benchmark interest rate 14.5%…not least, stock market up 100% this year. IMF wants more austerity: consumer tax hikes, layoffs, higher utility prices, sell govt assets.

Sep 19

biggest driver of inequality is not falling wages; it’s stock buybacks & dividend payouts. Will exceed $1.3T this year for F500 corps alone. Microsoft announces another $40B buybacks + 11% more dividends from its $52B profits this year. Prior buyback was $35.7B
Sep 17

Why will Fed cut interest rates another 0.25% tomorrow, when banks are sitting on $1.45 trillion in excess (i.e. loanable) reserves already? With inflation officially at 1.6% (actually>2% Fed target)? And unemployment officially at 3.7%? Why? Cuz $US too high and rising.

Sep 17

Trump’s paying US farmers almost $30B so far in aid as China cuts US farm purchases. Who’s getting the $30B? Recent study shows top 1% (agribus/big farmers) got ave. $180,000; bottom 80% got $5k in aid. 12,800 US farmers went under in 2018, first yr. Trump’s trade war.

Sep 16

Perdue pharma cuts a legal deal today to shield itself from further legal suits, as Sackler family members quietly divert their billions$ to safe havens. 50,000 opioid deaths in the US annually; prescription opioids pushed by companies like Perdue responsible for 36,000.

Sep 15

Will Saudi Oil sites drone strike reduce global supply & raise US gas prices? US produces 12m bpd, uses < 12, & exports 3m bpd. Has 544mb strategic reserve + ? more private reserves. Saudis have 188m reserve. US can cut exports or use reserves but won't. Gas prices will rise
Sep 14

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of Doubleline & predictor past US recessions, says 75% chance US recession by end 2020. Adds no deal on trade with China before. Growing list of big investors predicting same. Current mkts & US economy='dead cat bounce'. My same forecast.

Sep 13

now engaged in 'tightening the screws' further on Argentina, by withholding sending next tranche of $56 billion bailout until it sees Argentina imposing even more austerity on households to pay it back. Argentina economic crisis contagion to Uruguay underway, and then Brazil
Sep 12

Trump signals willing to accept a 'partial' deal with China. Meaning? US will take China concessions already on the table (51% US ownership in China, China buys $1 trillion more US farm goods, etc.) and settle for later deal on nextgen technology (5G, AI, cybersecurity)

Sep 11

Govt says median income up only 0.9% in 2018, statistically insignificant from prior year. So who got the reported 3.1% wage gains last year? Tech engineers, professionals, supervisors, advance degreed, etc. All skewed to the top. Studies show 60% got no wage hike at all.
Sep 10

Trump fires neocon NS advisor Bolton today. Why not. Bolton architect of failure to get deal with N. Korea, failure to bring about regime change in Venezuela, push for war with Iran, and stalled trade deal with China. Trump wants resolution on all areas by 2020 election

Sep 9

capitalists stick together. Billionaire Singer's Elliot Mgmt attacking AT&T. Wants break up. Owns lot of stock. Will make millions. Trump (a commercial property speculator) applauds move. Why? AT&T owns CNN, which Trump hates. Trump got billions for Singer. Now payback.
Sep 9

US Treas. Sec'y, Mnuchin, today said Oct. mtg with China to focus on China currency manipulation. But China's been entering mkts to prevent Yuan devaluing, not opposite. Does Mnuchin want China to let it devalue? And offset Trump tariffs? Manipulation claim is nonsense

Sep 7

Who's winning US-China tariff war? China is. Despite Trump's $375B tariffs, US imports from China last month rose 6.4%; conversely, China imports from US fell 3.3%. US goods deficit with China rising. Record deficits too with Japan and EU now. 18 mo. war & no progress.

Sep 6

Trump proposes privatizing Fannie/Freddie. What's behind it? Big profits for hedge funds & other speculators in new IPO of F/F + access to future profits now going to Govt. Result: home buyers 30yr. mortgages will rise significantly. Thus, more income inequality shift

Sep 6

Want to know why the real unemployment rate in the US today is 10% at minimum, not the 3.7% peddled by the mainstream media? Check out my latest blog post, 'What's the Real Unemployment Rate in the US'
Sep 4

US joins Germany, UK, Japan, etc. in global manufacturing recession. BIG drop in US PMI last month from 51.2 to 49.1 (<50=recession)+ Univ Michigan consumer index falls most since 2012 + After 18 mos & $500B tariffs on China, US trade deficit with it still expanding

Sep 3

US-China trade war, UK hard Brexit, German-EU recession, global manuf. contraction, Italian banks, Argentina default, global oil price deflation…but watch out India as point of crisis: Banks defaulting, scandals, record non-performing bad debt, consumption falling, etc.

Sep 2

Multiple independent surveys (Bankrate, Payscale, McKinsey, etc.) show wages are not rising by 3.1% as US Govt claims. Want to know why? Check out my latest blog post for Labor Day
Aug 31

Does anyone still believe Fed policy is about keeping inflation at 2% & reducing unemployment? Fed to cut rates again Sept., when inflation is 1.6% and falling, and UE rate=3.8%. Fed's real target is stock & currency prices. Ditto Europe, UK, Japan, & central banks worldwide
Aug 30

Trump complains today Euro currency falling. Makes EU exports more competitive with US by lowering Euro + will offset future US tariffs on EU. US must cut rates to lower $ but $ rising. World now entering "currency devaluations by competitive interest rate cutting"

Aug 29

today China says won't retaliate to Trump's latest tariffs hike before mtg. Will Trump also back off? Neocons now running US trade policy want China capitulation on nextgen tech (AI, 5G, cybersec) before deal. Behind trade war is technology war. Tech issue=crux to deal

Aug 29

looks like 'Greek Debt Crisis writ large' as investors see default coming on $56B IMF loan. IMF now negotiating a restructuring & extending of its debt. Will demand in turn more austerity and for longer period. Greek debt crisis and economic depression 2010-18 deja vu!

Listen to my 15min. short version assessment of California’s just proposed public bank initiative, and the pros and cons of public banks in general, in the following Critical Hour radio interview. To Listen

GO TO: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TVGP28Bkad2uYCsLdl7v5sbNlibjtejS/view

Listen to my analysis of the pros and cons of public banking as California announces proposal to start a public bank + update on US economy’s PMI indicators for both manufacturing and service sectors dropping fast.




This past week California proposed the creation of a public bank. What are the pros and cons of a public bank? Why a public bank would benefit Californians. Why public banks aren’t panacea solutions to a US chronic slow growth economy approaching recession once again. The limits of monetary policy, whether QE, MMT, or public banking. Why advocates of monetary solutions always over-estimate the role of money supply, interest rates, and bank lending. What really drives capitalist investment and economy. Why money is necessary but not sufficient. Public banking (and MMT) as QE turned on its head. Rasmus introduces show with discussion of latest US purchasing managers index for services and manufacturing now slowing and contracting, and why job numbers are becoming weaker and will soon follow by year end or sooner, as US economy slowly joins the global economic slowdown. Why Trump may strike a deal with China—i.e. take the money and run and leave the tech issue for another day. (Next week: Ukrainegate, Trump, and the Decline of American Democracy)