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With Trump and Congress promising to deliver another $1T in tax cuts before year end 2018, with the US Budget Deficit and Debt projected already to exceed $1T a year, annually, for the next decade ($32T US debt by 2028), and with the interest on the debt forecast by the Congressional Budget Office to reach $900 billion a year by 2028–the true dimensions of Trump’s 2018 tax cuts for multinational corporations, businesses, investors, and the wealthiest 1% households requires detailed understanding.

In 2019 Trump-McConnell will next try to pay for it by cutting social security, medicare, education and other programs, while the Fed will keep raising interest rates (precipitating the next recession) to try to pay for the $1T deficit in the interim.

The mainstream media keeps repeating the Trump 2018 Tax cuts amount to only $1.5 trillion. But that’s not the actual tax cuts. That’s the official projected impact on the budget deficit.

But even that official projection is grossly underestimated, since it assumes a GDP annual growth rate of 3.5% plus for every one of the next ten years with no recession in between.

Moreover, the $4T-$5T tax cuts for the rich and their businesses includes offsetting tax hikes on the middle class of $2 trillion over the next decade–eliminating exemptions, deductions, plus other hikes on middle class households. The $2T in middle class hikes begin in earnest in 2019 and accelerate after 2024–while the business/investor tax cuts grow larger over the decade.


So the actual dimension of the Trump 2018 tax cuts for investors and businesses is $4T-$5T, not $1.5T (i.e. $4-$5T minus the $2T tax hikes on middle class plus the phony growth assumptions of 3.5% GDP with no recession).

Mainstream media may be engaging in ‘fake news’ but Trump media and politicians are engaging in ‘bald-faced lying’. A plague on both their misrepresenting reality houses!

Watch and listen to my video interview (1 hr.) with ‘Smart Talk’ station host, Ed Dodson, of the Henry George Society, this past summer, not available on podcasted video.

    TO WATCH & LISTEN TO THE INTERVIEW

Go To: http://www.kyklosproductions.com/videos.html

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Trump is touring his political base, delivering speeches heavy with increasingly nasty verbal insults and personal attacks on Democrats, on Californians, and targeting imagined enemies both internal (immigrants) and foreign (Canadians,Europeans, Chinese, etc. etc.)–a harbinger of things to come perhaps after the midterm elections regardless of the outcome.

Listen to my 19 minute interview today, October 23, on the Critical Hour radio show, commenting on Trump’s speech today, during which he declared that he is a true ‘nationalist’ and a true patriot–while those who differed with him were globalists and not patriots.

GO TO: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UKm_XjGLsw6qUqG0xcVdlqzjwK791xmd/view

Listen to my explanation of how Trump’s meaning of ‘Nationalist’ parallels that of another ‘nationalist’ whose public speeches and rallies also railed against imagined ‘enemies’ within and without; also vilified and threatened opponents with incarceration and worse; also declared he would make his country ‘great again’ by purging it of its enemies. And to do this he would, if necessary, sweep away institutions of democratic government, while employing the racist card and piling lie upon lie to agitate and mobilize his supporters to hate and violence against his opponents.

You know who I mean, folks. It’s time to use the ‘H’ word.

Immigrants and people of color are Trump’s ‘enemy within’, just as the jew was considered the immigrant that had invaded the German nation, who was not part of the ‘volk’, and should therefore be expelled. While the enemy ‘without’ were those countries who dared to assume military superiority, so that unparalleled military buildup was the answer to restore the country’s ‘greatness’ externally as well. His speeches, like Trump’s, were also laden with attacks on his parliamentary opposition who he claimed were responsible for undermining the country in the past. They too were against the restoration of the nation’s greatness, i.e. were anti-nationalists.

The enemy ‘without’ had taken advantage of the country in the wake of the 1st world war and, together with weak German politicians, had destroyed the country’s former greatness. Germany was for Germans, not for the foreign influence within, i.e. the jews; just as America is for (white) Americans and therefore the immigrant (of color) should be expelled as well, if necessary their families broken up and incarcerated at the border. To restore Germany to greatness, the immigrant(jew) must be expelled, the weak politicians who sold out the country thrown in jail or worse, and a new vast military buildup should be undertaken so it could regain its ‘respect’ in the eyes of other countries. Those opposed to his kind of Nationalism were unpatriots, and even traitors.

Trump is not a fascist (yet), but is clearly moving down the road to that with his meaning of nationalism, his appeal to racist rhetoric and suggestions of violence against immigrants and political opponents, his clear advocacy of tyranny as he sees himself above the law and is prepared to pardon himself if indicted or impeached, his fawning of everything military, his rush to a massive new military buildup, his cultivating and courting of a political base that believes he can do no wrong, his incendiary speeches, his clear affinity toward authoritarian ‘strongmen’ throughout the world, his disdain for those who exercise their civil liberties to protest and demonstrate (i.e. the ‘mob’ as he now calls them), his calls to throw politicians in jail, his uncensored egoism and vanity, and his constant resort to habitual lying to advance his historically un-American meaning of Nationalism and patriotism.

Trump is a wannabe fascist, a would be tyrant, and a wrecker of the American nation.

Listen to my Alternative Visions radio show of October 19, with special guests, Nick Brana (formerly liaison from Sanders campaign to Democratic Party) and Alan Benjamin, labor and Latino activist, on the growing interest in 3rd party alternatives to the two wings of the Corporate Party of America (aka Republicans and Democrats).

To listen to the show GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-3rd-independent-progressive-party-now-agenda-america-10-19-18/

Or GO TO:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Dr. Rasmus invites guests, Nick Brana and Alan Benjamin, to discuss the growing demand for a 3rd, independent political party, now supported by 67% of Americans according to a recent Gallup Poll. Nick Brana is the former national coordinator for the Bernie Sanders 2016 campaign’s liaison to the Democratic Party, formerly the electoral manager for the post-2016 ‘Our Revolution’ movement behind Sanders, and a prior director of Democrat campaigns for governor (McAuliff) and Kerry. Alan Benjamin is a former delegate to the San Francisco central labor council, AFLCIO, a union member and long time activist in Latino politics in California. Both guests are now active in the ‘movement for a People’s Party, a coalition of labor, community and progressive activists with 50,000 signed supporters. Dr. Rasmus asks Brana how the Democrats stopped Bernie Sanders, what’s going on inside the Democratic Party today on the eve of the 2018 midterm elections, and why he has broken with the Democrats in favor of a new party. Rasmus explains how the two parties—Democrat and Republican—have morphed into parties controlled increasingly by the radical right (Trump’s Republican) and corporate lobbyists (Democrats), why Democrats can’t stop Trump, how they’ve become inept and ineffective, and why the ‘blue wave’ in the midterms being predicted by the media may not materialize. Alan Benjamin describes discussions and shifts underway today at the grass roots level in both Unions and Latino movements. Together the three discuss: Is the US at a critical political juncture? Can an organizational alternative be formed in time to stop the shift to the right and proto-fascist politics in the US? Can progressives get beyond single issue politics? Why can’t Democrats stop Trump?

(For more information, listeners should check out: http://ForaPeoplesParty.org or Laborcommunitycampaign@gmail.com and http://socialistorganizer.com for more information and activities).

Listen to my friday October 12, 2018 Alternative Visions radio show on this past week’s US and global stock decline–the worst since last February’s. Is this second sharp decline a harbinger of more serious contractions to come? Or another ‘dead cat bounce’ similar to last February’s? (see this blog for the February 2018 prediction it would be a ‘dead cat bounce’, with a recovery followed by a second major correction. The US and global economies have become even more fragile since February (stocks, global bond rout, emerging markets’ currency crises and IMF bailouts, China stocks and asset management markets in decline, and non-performing bank loans in India, junk bond leverage problems, non-financial corp defaults beginning to emerge in US, Europe and Asia, etc.

Listen to my latest assessment of the global condition.

GO TO

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-us-global-stock-markets-plunge-whats-next/

OR GO TO:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

Today’s Alternative Visions show focuses on the past week’s turmoil and decline in US and global stocks (Japan, EME, China, Europe), as Fed rate hikes and the ‘wall of money’ tsunami provided to investors by the Fed and Congress since 2008 now begins to recede. Dr. Rasmus explains why US stock and financial markets accelerated to record levels between 2009-2018 (i.e. Fed $5T plus QE free money, 6 years of near zero interest rates, $1T year in corporate bond issuance, another $1T a year in corporate stock buybacks and dividend payouts, a tripling of corporate profits, $15T in tax cuts for businesses and investors from Bush to Trump—have all converged driving up stock prices. Now investors realize, except for Trump tax cut subsidy to profits (20% this year), all the other ‘drivers’ of stock prices will decline in 2019 and after. Rasmus explains further how structural changes in stock markets (ETFs, passive investing, dark pools, algo trading, etc.) have exacerbated the US stock run-up, but will now accelerate the stock declines as well. Other related discussion in the show focuses on the IMF bailouts of Argentina, Pakistan and IMF’s coming funding crisis, Italy’s new government’s break from EU austerity rules, and latest developments in Trump’s US-China trade war.

Listen to my Alternative Visions radio show this friday, October 12, at 2pm eastern time on the Progressive Radio Network. The lead topic will the steep plunge in US stocks (DOW down 831 pts yesterday; NASDAQ and S&P 500 more). Over night even bigger declines in Japan, Hong Kong, and China’s stocks worst day since its 2015 crash.

Trump growing worried and attacking the Fed again. Pakistan joining Argentina and asking the IMF for a big bailout. (Other EMEs soon to follow). Italy’s government drawing a line in the sand with the EU, as Italian bonds deteriorate more rapidly. Sears announces bankruptcy (other retail to follow) and GE in trouble. Watch for defaults on the rise as financial assets continue to decline. CHina refusing to bow to Trump threats of more trade war. IMF warning Trump as US tariffs start to bite into US and global growth, as Fed rates rise and US inflation accelerates while US autos and construction now hitting a wall.

Here’s some of my quick tweets of yesterday on the stock-financial instability emerging:

#Fed lock in your fixed income investments by year end. One more Fed rate hike coming, at best maybe two. Fed will over-react and fall behind the curve, as it always has raising rates too fast, too high, and reversing too late, too slow. That’s its history.

##DOW Profits up 20% over 2017. Trump $4T tax cuts 2018 add profits windfall 20%. So no real growth 2018. Markets know: 2019 profits will fall, Fed rates rising, oil costs up, Trump artificial tax windfall over, EMEs in crisis, China slowing, etc. I repeat: US recession late 2019

#Stockmarket DOW drops 831 pts today. NASDAQ-S&P proportionally even more. As I’ve been predicting, Fed rate hikes to 2.75% (now 2.25%) will precipitate financial asset mkts big decline. Looks like 2.5% may even be enough. Recovery will occur, then decline sharper coming weeks.

By Jack Rasmus
Copyright 2018

Liberals and the left were shocked by the Kavanaugh confirmation this past weekend. They may experience an even greater shock to their political consciousness should the Democrats fail to take the House in the upcoming midterm elections.

The traditional media has been promoting the message that a ‘blue wave’ will occur on November 6. Polls as evidence are being published. The Democratic Party is pushing the same theme, to turn out the vote. But these are the same sources that in 2016, on the eve of that election, predicted Trump would get only 15% of the popular vote and experience the worse defeat ever in a presidential election! Should we believe their forecasting ability has somehow radically improved this time around?

Anecdotal examples, in New York City and elsewhere in deep Democrat constituencies, are not sufficient evidence of such a ‘wave’. Especially given the apparent successes underway of Republic-Right Wing efforts to suppress voter turnout elsewhere, where House seats must be ‘turned’ for Democrats to achieve a majority in the House once again. (See, for example, Greg Palast’s most recent revelation of voting roll purging going on in Georgia, which is no doubt replicated in many other locales).

Should the Democrats clearly win enough seats to take over control of the US House of Representatives on November 6, liberals and progressives may be further disappointed. Democrat party leaders will most likely talk about impeachment, make some safe committee moves toward it, but do little to actually bring it about in the coming year. What they want is to keep that pot boiling and leverage it for 2020 elections. Such prevarication and timidity, so typical of Democrat leadership in recent decades, will almost certainly have the opposite intended effect on liberal-left voter consciousness. Voters will likely retreat from voting Democrat even more in 2020 should Democrat Party leaders merely ‘talk the talk’ but not walk.

Conversely, should the Dems fail to take the House a month from now, an even deeper awareness will settle in that the Democratic Party is incapable of winning again in 2020. Even fewer still may therefore turn out to vote next time, assisted by an even more aggressive Republican-Trump effort to deny the right to vote than already underway.

In short, a Democrat party failure to recover the US House of Representatives next month will have a debilitating effect on consciousness for the Democrat base that will no doubt reverberate down the road again. So too will a timid, token effort to proceed toward impeachment should the Democrats win next month.

But a takeover of the House by Democrats will result in an even greater, parallel consciousness bombshell—only this time on the right. Bannon, Breitbart, and their billionaire money bags (Mercers et. al.) are already preparing to organize massive grass roots demonstrations and protests to scare the Democrats into inaction so far as impeachment proceedings are concerned. And it won’t take much to achieve that retreat by Democrat party leaders.

The recent Kavanaugh affair is right now being leveraged by Trump and the far right to launch a further attack on civil liberties and 1st amendment rights of assembly and protest. Trump tweets are providing the verbal ‘green light’ to go ahead. Kavanaugh has become an organizational ‘cause celebre’ to mobilize the right to turn out their vote. The plans are then to take that mobilization one step further, however, after the midterm elections.

Plans are in the works for Bannon and friends for a mobilization of the right to continue post November 6, should the Dems take the House. They’re just warming up with the Kavanaugh affair. Demonstrations celebrating Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court win are just a dress rehearsal—first to turn out the vote but then to defend Trump in the streets if the Democrats actually take the House.

The public protests and demonstrations on the right will aim to intimidate House Democrats, should they win, but will also serve as counter demonstrations to attack protestors demonstrating for impeachment.

Either way—should the Republicans retain the House or the Democrats take it—a sea change in US political consciousness will occur once again this November, as it did in November 2016. And should the Democrats take the House, political instability will almost certainly intensify in the US, as the developing political crisis will ‘move to the streets’.

The 2016 election and events of the past two years wrenched the consciousness of many Americans about how the US system works. The myths have fallen by the wayside, one by one in the intervening two years. The belief that somehow the sane leaders appointed to Trump’s initial cabinet would somehow control him or the Republicans in the Senate keep him in check have both dissipated.

Trump has purged them from his administration, or they have dropped out of running for Congress again as the well-financed, pro-Trump, right wing local machine has promoted right wing candidates to run against them. Trump has been successfully reconstituting the Republican party increasingly in his far right image. The myth that Trump will ‘tear up NAFTA’ and bring manufacturing jobs back is now debunked. Or that he will end the wars in the Middle East. The list is long.

Democrats in the meantime have continued to show their strategic ineffectiveness and tactical ineptness in dealing with Trump. Their party leaders have shown more concern, and success, in keeping Bernie Sanders and his supporters at bay, as witnessed by the recent Democrat Party measures that keep their ‘superdelegates’ barrier to party reform in place while giving the chair of the Democratic Party the power to veto any candidate to run on its ticket who may win a primary in the future. Nor have they adopted an effective program to win back the working class, the loss of which in key Midwestern states in 2016 cost them the 2016 election. The latter not surprising, given that the central committee of the party is composed of more than 100 corporate lobbyists and CEOs. Promoting ‘identity politics’ has become the mantra—not programs to restore good jobs, ensure wages, protect retirement, defend union rights, push Medicare for All, and similar class-based demands.

Whether right or ‘left’ prevails in the upcoming November midterms, a few things are certain:

First, political consciousness, both right and left, will likely undergo another major shift, and perhaps on a scale close to that which occurred in 2016.

Second, the midterm elections will be used by the Bannons, Breitbarts, Mercers and others on the far right as an opportunity to mobilize the grass roots into a more centralized right wing movement. Initially for purposes of voter turnout, that organization, centralization, and mobilization will expand into the post-midterm US political landscape.

Third, more intimidation, more threats, and even now confrontations between left and right in the streets is a real possibility in the years to come in Trump’s remaining two years in office. (And the Republicans and the right will now own the police and the courts and will thus have a decided advantage in protests and demonstrations).

Increasingly, US intellectuals, artists, and even experienced old-guard politicians, who were once eye-witnesses in their early years, have begun to see parallels about what’s happening now in the US with past origins of fascist movements. Up to now, however, one especially important element of fascist politics has been missing in the US, although its ugly head has been peering above the horizon since 2016. That element is a grass roots movement of fascist-like supporters, activists and sympathizers, whose main task is to confront, intimidate, and violently discourage demonstrations and protests against their leader (Trump) personally, and in support of democratic rights under attack and the exercise of civil liberties in general.

The emergence of just such a right wing grass roots movement, better organized and well financed, and willing to engage in violent confrontations against other protestors and demonstrators in the streets, may soon be upon us. Should the Democrats win in November and launch impeachment proceedings the phenomenon will quickly appear. But even if Democrats prevaricate (the more likely scenario), the right is preparing to mobilize nonetheless. Their response to the Kavanaugh affair shows how much they’re ‘itching’ to do so. And should the Democrats win the House, their development will become even more evident.

Jack Rasmus
October 8, 2018

Jack is author of the forthcoming book, ‘The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Policy from Reagan to Trump’, Clarity Press, as well as ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes’, Clarity Press, August 2017. He blogs at jackrasmus.com and tweets at @drjackrasmus. His website is: http://kyklosproductions.com

Listen to my October 5, 2018 Alternative Visions radio show for my discussion of the growing global instability, driven by Fed rate hikes and bond selloff underway. The likely weakest points of future contagion. Also, my analysis of Trump’s phony deal with Canada and Mexico, the China ‘microchip’ affair, and US NATO threats to send missiles into Russia to ‘take out’ their bases.

To Listen GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-global-economic-instability-rising-trumps-nafta-2-o/

Or GO TO:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

With the US Fed rate hikes accelerating, and US and global bond selloff accelerating this past week, Dr. Rasmus looks at signs of growing financial instability in the US and abroad. Bond interest rates accelerating and more Fed rate hikes coming. The impact intensifying again on emerging market economies. Stock markets and recessions deepening. Italian bonds and banks (+ Euro, Greek, Turkey, India banks). Signs of corporate default problems rising (India’s IL&FS, GE, Deutsche bank, etc.). US hedge funds closing shop. Junk bond ‘zombie’ companies’ problems rolling over debt as rates rise. Pension funds. Corporate ETFs, Argentina and IMF, US deficits and debt (including $900 billion in interest on US debt prediction by CBO). Global financial asset prices beginning to turn and decline. Rasmus next discusses the phony trade agreements with Mexico and Canada. The coming intensifying trade war with China. The mysterious China ‘microchip’ affair (the new ‘yellow cake’?) as pretext for conflict with China. And while preoccupied with Kavanaugh affair, US NATO ambassador threatens to send US missiles to ‘take out’ Russian missile bases, while US threatens to attack Russian air bases in Syria. (For more on topics, go to jackrasmus.com blog).