Jack Rasmus

Periodically I post my tweets for recent months. These provide a brief commentary on key economic developments day to day that supplement my more in depth print and audio entries on this blog.

Topics for November-December include my takes on recent government data releases, stock market developments, global oil prices, China-US trade negotiations, NAFTA 2.0, the Fed rate hikes, US deficits & debt, bitcoin, yield curves, prospects for US recession, etc. etc. For readers interested in getting my quick views on daily developments directly, my twitter access is @drjackrasmus. Here’s some quick insights:

Dr. Jack Rasmus
‏
DECEMBER

#USeconomy The real US economy: in addition to all housing data down, autos retreating & key Mfg. indexes slowing fast, both consumer & business confidence indices turning down. Business investment only 6.8% for 2018, going lower 2019. Watch for shocker jobs report for december.
Dec 27

#DOW & US stocks near 1000pt bear mkt bounce today. What’s behind it? Institutional investors & algo trading, who make up 85% of all trades today. Retail investors still exiting (ETFs, passive). Real US economy weakening: housing, autos down& regional Mfg. Indices slowing rapidly
Dec 25

#Fed What’s behind Trump’s attacks on Fed? Trump & advisors know the real economy is slowing rapidly in December ’18 and 1st Qtr GDP also weakest & oil & commodity prices deflating. Trump is positioning himself to take credit for a Fed decision to halt rate hikes already planned.
Dec 18

#USrecession US http://bus.press & economists now coming around to my predictions of year ago: 1) Fed won’t raise fed funds rate above 2.75% (Dec is last hike) & 2) recession US by late 2019. My further prediction: US-China trade deal in 2019; if not March then by May ’19
Dec 13

#USMCA Trump 2016 promise to return auto jobs to US a sham. In 2017, US auto production fell by 1m, as US autos in Mexico rose by 500K. In 2018 US output falling still more as US plants close. USMCA = no new tariffs on Mexico & higher import quotas to US for Canada made autos.
Dec 11

#oilprices Will global oil prices continue to deflate in 2019? Yes. Why: OPEC-Russia deal to cut 1.2 million bpd will be offset by forecast US shale rise from 10.88 to 12.06 bpd; oil demand falls as Europe, Japan, EME recessions deepen in 2019; and OPEC & Russia cheat on deal.
Dec 4

#yieldcurve Low end yield curves (2-5, 3-5) now invert. 2-10yr bonds will by January–as my previous predictions said. (See my tweets). Fed will announce pause in rate hikes next March. December rate hike may be last. March for certain. Recession late 2019, as I also predicted.
Dec 3

#Fed Powell last week said rates now ‘just below’ neutral rate (where rates neither slow nor grow economy). But ‘neutral rate’ is fiction. No way to know what it is a priori, given other causes determining GDP. Neutral will be whatever rate at which Fed stops raising. Bad logic.
Dec 3

NOVEMBER

#tradewar For my analysis of this past weekend’s agreement at the G20 on the US-China trade war, read my just published “A US-China Trade War ‘Armistice’? Trump Blinks and Retreats”. Go to my blog,
Nov 28

#Fed Powell today signals slowdown of rate hikes. Says Fed funds rate almost equal to ‘neutral rate’. Stocks jump 500 pts, dollar drops, 2-10 yr Treasuries decline. Move confirms my prediction since Jan. 2018 that Fed won’t raise rates much after Dec’18. 2 Fed hikes left at most.
Nov 27

#bitcoin Bitcoin prices have now fallen by three-fourths from 2017 highs. Watch my Dec 2017 Youtube debate with Max Keiser/RTTV, & my analysis why bitcoin is just another speculative financial asset play and will go bust in 2018 (which it now has). Go to
Nov 21

#USDebt. US $1 trillion annual deficits next 10 yrs & $900b interest on debt by 2027. Only 3 solutions: Fed funds via high rates; rescind Trump’s $4T tax cuts for investors & corps; make grandma & kids pay by cutting social security, medicare & education. Guess which they’ll do.
Nov 20

#stocks US tech and retail stocks now leading markets lower and will continue. Other financial markets in trouble to watch medium term early 2019: corporate junk bonds, junk ETFs, BBB investment grade bonds, leveraged loans. Goldman Sachs now predicting significant US slowing.
Nov 18

#oilprice For my analysis of the emerging global oil price deflation, down now nearly 30% since July at $56 bpd, and going lower in 2019 as global economy slows and recessions spread, ready my 11-18-18 blog piece, ‘Global Oil Deflation 2018 and Beyond’ at
Nov 17

#USDebt US (national) debt $21 trillion. US GDP about same. But debt growing 7% per yr & rising; US GDP growing 3% and declining. CBO projects interest on debt at $900b by 2027 at end of Trump tax cuts-higher still if more military spending for AI weapons, cybersec, & new nuclear
Nov 14

#oilprice Pundits say excess supply. But excess supply because demand falling, as global econ slows. Japan-Germany now recession again. UK next. Italy stagnant. EMEs recessions spreading to Asia. China consumer & housing. US deficit Oct>$100b. US spending cuts 2019. US recession.
Nov 14

#oilprice Oil price deflation accelerating. Oil is financial asset. Other financial asset deflation also appearing worldwide (forex, bond, property, etc.). Given massive debt accumulation recent years, financial asset deflation amid excess short term debt=credit crunch & crisis
Nov 13

#ChinaTradeWar Faction fight within US trade team intensifies before G-20. Dominant Navarro-Lighthizer faction warns (10-26) Mnuchin-led bankers group not to meet with China’s Liu. Mnuchin meeting with Liu anyway. Top issue for US? Nextgen China tech or US access to China mkts?
Nov 12

#USStocks 3rd day down, 600pts.,clear trend, going lower. Why? Techs? Goldman? No. Expectations rising rates and $. Post-Feb. ’18 dead cat bounce driven by Trump tax cuts 20% profits boost + prices up under cover of phony trade war. Now Fed offsetting that. Watch GE big troubles
Nov 8

#election2018 For my analysis of the midterm 2018 elections, check out my latest blog post today, ‘None Dare Call It Victory’, at http://jackrasmus.com (part 2 and 3 to follow).
Nov 7

#MidtermElections2018 Trump fires Sessions, praises Pelosi, circles his wagons for Mueller report. But don’t expect the Dems to seriously go after him: 2 yrs of just talk of impeach & tax records but no ‘walk’. Stocks love it, now up 500 pts. Tax cuts now safe for next 6 yrs.
Nov 5

#Wages If mainstream media & politicians are reporting rising wages, why does Federal Reserve of St. Louis data show negative median weekly real earnings growth for the last four quarters? (btw, earnings is wages times hours worked, so it should be even higher than wages only)
Nov 2

OCTOBER

#Tradewar Trump announces plan to meet with China’s Xi and draws up new trade ‘plan’. Stock markets recover on news. What’s behind it? Just manipulation of markets before election. China-US trade dispute will be protracted. No quick or easy resolution of Tech transfer issue.
Oct 29

#Fed If PCE inflation rate since March has averaged the Fed’s target of 2%, why is the Fed continuing to raise interest rates? Because the 2% target is phony and always has been. Fed is raising rates to pay for the $1T plus annual budget deficits coming annually for 2018-2028
Oct 29

#Trumptaxcuts In Jan. Trump cut business-investors-wealthy households taxes $4-$5T(offset by $2T tax hikes for middle class and phony growth assumptions to get $1.5T). He promised massive business investment. So why was equipment investment only 0.8% in 3Q GDP? And housing -4.0%?
Oct 27

#USrecession Will the next recession and financial crisis repeat the 2008 subprime-derivatives crash? Or the 2000 tech bust? Or the Asian currency and sovereign debt crises of 1997-1999? Or the junk bond driven 1986-87 stock market implosion? How about a little of ‘all the above’