As more business press commentators are now talking about the slowing US and global economies, and some even raising the ‘R’ word (recession), my prediction since early 2018 that there will be a US recession (and Europe and Japan) by late 2019 is gaining adherents in the mainstream. Listen to my Alternative Visions radio show of December 7, 2018 and my discussion about the yield curve as predictor of recession, and my prediction of a US recession by late 2019.
GO TO:
http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-yield-curves-recession-late-2019/
SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT
Dr. Rasmus explains the importance of the Yield Curve (currently flattening or inverting) and its role as a predictor of recession in 2019. What causes short term rates to rise while long term rates slow or fall. The Fed’s role in short term rate changes and the global-US economy slowing role in long term rates converging with short term. Why the Fed continues raising (short term) rates but cannot do so more than 1-2 times without provoking a crisis in emerging market economies and causing further slowing of Europe and Japan economies. How Dr. Rasmus’s predictions re. rates, yield curves, and 2019 recession in US since last January now happening. Why US banks’ business research arms now calling recession 2019 as well (Morgan Stanley). Why critics of yield curve are wrong. Forces converging to produce recession 2019. In the first half of the show, updates on china trade war, global oil price developments, and GM layoffs are discussed—and what’s behind the arrest of Huawei’s Co-CEO, Meng Wangzhou, by Canada at US request?
Dr. Jack Rasmus @drjackrasmus
Jack Rasmus 
TRUTHDIG ARTICLE:
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/fox-in-the-hen-house-why-interest-rates-are-rising/
Ellen (Brown), your offering was excellent food for thought.
If you knew me, you would not believe I have any tendency to hyperbole, but I believe the Fed and our Congress are criminal enterprises.
Did anyone take note of the fact that since 2009, we haven’t experienced a “business cycle”?
The reason is that the Fed wasn’t manipulating rates; it kept short-term rates at zero and allowed the market to set rates.
Most if not all of our downturns were caused by the Fed, most notably the 2000 “dot-com” bust, after Mr. G. increased rates to 6% in a 2% inflationary economy.
The following is extracted from a piece I wrote (Equitable Tax Reconfiguration: Oct. 8, 2017 – https://www.facebook.com/mzitterman1
“Since our economics would be greatly stimulated, a different method of controlling the pace of the economy would be initiated. A separate withholding would be established and would be controlled by the Federal Reserve Board.
The Fed, on a monthly basis, would publish a factor (a % of gross pay) which would cause a reduction or increase in net pay, thus affecting the strength of our economics, immediately.
Interest rates would be market-based, i.e., the Fed would not control rates via Discount and Federal Funds rates.”
The effect would be that the incentive by the Fed to manipulate rates would evaporate and the shift of wealth (re interest rates) from the middle class to the top 2% would cease.
NOTE: The funds withheld would go into an IRA-type account; in a slowdown, the funds would be released to stimulate the economy.
BONUS: It appears the major intent of the Fed by raising interest rates is to benefit the banking industry (greater income) and the top 2% (shift of wealth from the middle class; when the economy weakens, the raising slows or reverses).
WARNING: It will be impossible for the Fed to sell $50 billion per month of the treasuries on its balance sheet without causing much higher rates and then a recession, which could be worse than 2008/2009 fiasco.
Enjoy,
michael zitterman
mikiesmoky@aol.com
04/21/2018