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Posts Tagged ‘Predicting the Presidential Election Outcome’

This morning the polls opened for the election. Before exit polls start their estimation, I offer the following prediction this morning, Nov. 6, for the eventual election results as follows:

Obama: 281-290 electoral votes
Romney: 248-257 electoral votes

Should Obama win, don’t expect anything different for the US economy, besides more ‘stop-go’ recovery at best and a growing liklihood of a double dip in 2013, given industrial production and real income (and thus consumption) again beginning to weaken, and government spending virtually certain to join the relapse again in the first quarter of next year.
While at it, I will predict yet another ‘jobs relapse’ in the first quarter of next year, and more ‘bumping along the bottom’ for construction spending (except for apartment building).

Watch for my year-end assessment of last year’s (Jan. 2012) predictions for the US and global economy (much of which has turned out to be accurate), and predictions for the coming 2013-14 period. The article will appear in Z magazine’s Jan. issue, and will be posted on my website, http://www.kyklosproductions.com, as well as discussed on my radio show, Alternative Visions, on the progressive radio network in coming weeks (PRN.FM).

With the election about over, the ‘real economic program’ of the two wings of the single party system in the US will be revealed. It’s called the ‘Fiscal Cliff’, and it will contradict most of what the two presidential candidates have been feeding the public to date. More on this as well in coming weeks.

Dr. Jack Rasmus

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