Two days ago I wrote an extended article, ‘Some Economic Consequences of the Iran War’ now posted on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com. It addressed ten areas of economic impact on the US and global economies. Now that Israel has just expanded the war by attacking Iran’s gas fields–and Iran has responded by counter-attacking UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia fields–the economic crisis from now further escalating crude and gas oil prices is now accelerating faster. Its impact on global stock markets, central bank interest rate hikes, currencies (including the $US) and global food supply is intensifying. Here are some of the indicators now beginning to worsen as the Iran war concludes its fourth week today, March 21:
Brent benchmark crude oil hit $112 at the start of the day, March 21, the highest since 2022. Natgas prices in Europe surged 35% in one day.
The oil shock is now hitting US and global stock markets harder. The S&P 500 is down for the 4th week in a row, as are Europe and other markets. Only the S&P energy index is up. Without that, the S&P would be collapsing.
After rising due to investors seeking a safety haven, the US dollar is now falling once again, down 0.9% this past week (after having fallen 10.2% in 2025. The declining dollar will contribute separately from oil prices to rising grain and commodity prices in general. A falling dollar will accelerate the global shift away from the US dollar as global reserve currency.
The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, stopped cutting rates this week and will now move to raising its policy (short term) rate if the war continues. Long term interest rates have begun to rise in the interim. The 10 yr. US Treasury bond rate is up for the third week in a row to 4.4%. The 2 yr note up to 3.9%. And US mortgage rates are rising sharply once again toward the 7% range. Other central banks–Bank of England, European Central Bank, etc.–are raising rates as well. The Bank of England’s bond rate is now 5%. Europe economies, now stagnating or experiencing mild recession, will enter general recession as result of record energy prices and rising interest rates.
The IAEA announces the current global energy crisis is now worse than that of 1973, impacting today now only oil and gas, but chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics and urea fertilizer prices world wide. Fuel rationing has already begun in several Asian countries. China has stopped exporting any energy products. Jet fuel cost is rising and airline prices are doubling and airlines cutting out more scheduled flights. Gasoline prices in the US are up $1 a gallon on average. Fertilizer prices have risen 40% and Asian fertilizer factories are shutting down. The UN says two more weeks of war and global food supplies become critical for grains, meat, dairy products and spring plantings.
Meanwhile, it appears US plans for an invasion of Iran (boots on the ground) are growing more likely, as US ships with 5 to 7,000 Marines approach the Iranian gulf coast. And Israel simultaneously releases indirect threats it my use a tactical nuclear weapon on Iran should Iran’s missiles continue to damage Israel airfields, Haifa oil refinery, and critical Israeli infrastructure as that country’s ‘Iron Dome’ missile defense system continues to fail.
These intensifying and escalating likely actions will accelerate the oil price shock and its economic impacts in the next several weeks. Business sources predict global crude oil prices will exceed $180 a barrel. At that price, global and US recession is inevitable.
For my recent March 20, 2026 TV interview on these and related political topics, watch at:
Dr. Jack Rasmus
March 21, 2026
Dr. Jack Rasmus @drjackrasmus
Jack Rasmus 