Jack Rasmus

Listen to my analysis of the three major developments of the past week and how they’re related: $1.3 trillion budget spending increase, Fed interest rate hike, and China trade measures

GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-us-economys-triple-witching-hour-budget-bill-fed-rate-hikes-china-trade-war-03-23-18/

OR GO TO:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Dr. Rasmus looks at three major economic events of the past week: the Trump $1.3 trillion budget bill, the Fed’s latest rate hike (with 6 more coming 2018-19), and the Trade War he launched last week which (as I predicted on this show last week) was really an opening salvo in trade negotiations with China (not Europe, Mexico-Canada, Latin America, rest of Asia). On the trade war, Trump is already exempting the rest and targeting China. But even the China ‘war’ is hardly that. Trump’s opening ‘attack’ amounts to 12% tariffs on $50 billion of more than $700 billion China goods only exports to the US. Rasmus explains how this is all in the long tradition of US restructuring of trade relations with its capitalist competitors. (Nixon did it in 1971-73 and Reagan in 1986). Rasmus deconstructs the budget bill $1.3 trillion, as just the first in a series of war spending hikes totaling more than $1T a year. Along with $3T net tax cuts, it will mean $1T annual budget deficits for the next decade. The opening attack on social security, medicare, food stamps, education and other cuts to pay for it has already begun. Rasmus concludes with his analysis of the Power Fed’s latest rate hikes, and predicts when and at what level further hikes will precipitate another liquidity crisis and recession, as in 2008. (Read his blog, jackrasmus.com, for further written analyses of Fed, Budget, and Trade policies under Trump. Or join his twitter feed @drjackrasmus).

Listen to my recent radio interview on the radio show, ‘It’s the Empire, Stupid’, where I explain the role of the Federal Reserve bank ini the financial crash of 2008-09 and the historic weak recovery. What was behind the 2008-09 crisis, and the US and global economies’ current trajectories. Why the Fed is once again on track to precipitate the next crisis with interest rate hikes underway. (72min. interview)

GO TO: https://www.spreaker.com/user/9119584/empire-episode24-jackrasmus

The US ‘trade war’ is not with NAFTA, TPP, or TTIP(Europe), it will soon be clear the target is China. Meanwhile, US total debt tops $70 trillion, up $20T since 2008, and the US economy will slow by end of year 2018 as consumer spending stalls and business inventories accumulate

Listen to my analyses on my last friday, March 16, Alternative Visions radio show.

GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-us-economic-slowdown-ahead-2018-us-debt-hits-70-trillion-trump-targets-china-trade-03-16-18/

OR GO TO:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

Dr. Rasmus identifies weakening retail sales and business inventories as sources of US GDP sharply slowing later this year. Trump’s tariffs as only opening skirmish in US trade war—with China not the rest of the world. Half of US $810 billion trade deficit in goods is with China. Watch next week Trump actions targeting China trade. Why China will not respond cooperatively. Rasmus puts Trump’s ‘Déjà vu’ trade war in historical perspective, showing how US corporations and politicians have always periodically attacked their foreign capitalist competitors to improve US share of world trade profits, by manipulating US currency and forcing trade treaties. Nixon in 1971-73 (Smithsonian Agreement) and Reagan in 1985-86 (Plaza and Louvre Accords), targeting Europe and Japan, respectively. Trump will target China. The show also addresses the escalating US total debt, from $50 trillion in i2007 to $70 trillion today and what it means, the 10 year anniversary of the Bear-Stearns Investment bank crash of March 2008, the accelerating banking deregulation by Congress underway, and the appointment of economic lightweight Larry Kudlow to Trump’s Economic Council and his support for absurd ‘supply side’ economic ideology.

Listen to my 12 minute interview on Loud & Clear Radio yesterday on the recent US Senate passed legislation to accelerate the deregulation of two dozen very large banks (incorrectly called ‘community’ banks by the mainstream media). While Congress rushes to deregulate the banks, US debt has risen from $50 trillion in 2007 before the last crisis to more than $70 trillion today? Debt-driven financial bubbles are growing, in stocks and other financial securities, and the US economy grows more financially fragile below the surface of apparent economic growth.

To listen to my analysis of the Senate legislation (and pending even more severe House proposals), and my recommendation of a national public banking system with the Federal Reserve restructured as a national public bank and public investment corporation, GO TO:

https://www.spreaker.com/user/radiosputnik/senate-overwhelmingly-passes-bill-to-wea

Read the latest, 4th in the series, summarizing my theory of System-Wide fragility in the global and US economy. US total debt has risen from $50 trillion in 2007 to $70 trillion today, 2018. Read how four decades of restructuring in financial and labor markets have rendered traditional monetary and fiscal policies not only ineffective in stabilizing the economic cycles but have become forces of de-stabilization of the system.

TO read, go to my website, at: http://www.kyklosproductions.com/articles.html

Listen to my Alternative Visions radio show of friday, March 9, for my analysis of Trump’s Steel-Aluminum Tariff Announcement, how its real target is China (which imports less than 1% of US steel imports), how tariffs and the new, aggressive Trade policy is the logical consequence of Trump monetary (rate hikes) and fiscal (tax cuts, defense spending, deficits & debt) policies. Why Trump’s move is in a long tradition of US elites making trade partners pay, as in Reagan 1985, Nixon 1971, and before.

To Listen GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-trump-trade-war-brewing-03-09-18/

Or go to:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Dr. Rasmus takes up the key economic news of the past week that Trump is launching a trade war by raising tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Contrary to press and media, it’s not a general ‘trade war’ but another example of US capitalists—the national ‘America First’ wing allied with Trump in the current case—signaling they intend to renegotiate trade agreements with US trading partners. After announcing, Trump immediately exempted NAFTA partners, Canada and Mexico, the US main steel importers. Trump further announced more exemptions coming for Europe and elsewhere. SO the main target is…China, even though China is responsible for less than 1% of steel imports to US. Rasmus explains how historically the US has always turned aggressive on trade when the global trade pie, or its share of it, was threatened: Reagan did it in 1985, Nixon in 1971, and Hoover in 1930. Further explained is how the Fed rate hike policy underway will raise the US dollar and make US exports less competitive, so the trade renegotiations are anticipating this by making US trade partners pay for the rate-dollar hikes coming. How US trade policy is a response to US monetary policy which, in turn, is a response to Trump tax cuts, defense spending, and $trillion annual deficits and $10 trillion US debt. It’s all US Capital on the offensive in a new Trump aggressive ‘Neoliberalism 2.0’ taking form.

For those more theoretically inclined in economics, read my latest, 3rd installment in a series from my concluding chapter of my 2016 book, ‘Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’ In the chapter I explain my theory of how debt and income interact to create financial crises causing the economy to grow more ‘fragile’ (i.e. prone to financial instability). That process of deepening fragility has been continuing since the last crisis in 2008. At least $20 trillion more private and government debt has been added to the US economy since 2008; another $40 trillion in emerging markets; and trillions more in China and Europe. More than $10 trillion in non-performing bank loans exist now worldwide. Stock and bond and derivatives markets are in bubble mode. Income for financing government debt (tax and foreign T-bond sales), household debt (wages stagnating), and business debt (interest rates rising) are approaching limits and about to decline. With decline will come inability to refinance extreme debt levels, and lead in turn to defaults. Asset prices will then collapse, leading to real economy contraction.

In this third in the series, the discussion focuses on the relationship between financial and real asset investing and how price plays a role as a transmission mechanism. The ‘two price theory’ is explained, and contemporary Keynesian and Classical economist views that money causes inflation are debunked.

To Read go to my website, http://kyklosproductions.com/articles.html

Alternative Visions Radio Show, Friday, March 2, 2018

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

Today’s show focuses on the pending US Supreme Court decision, Janus vs. AFSCME, which represents an escalation of the billionaire-corporate-right wing attack on unions. Dr. Rasmus welcomes guest, Joseph Bryant, Vice President of Service Employees International Union (SEIU) local 1021 in San Francisco, California. The billionaires behind the case—from the State Policy Network to ALEC to the Koch Brothers, Bradley Foundation, Donors Trust Fund and others are noted. How the Janus case seeks to gut union representation by bankrupting the union. Rasmus provides an overview of anti-union tactics and strategies of the past 40 years, that have already devastated union membership in the private sector, now down to only 6.5% organized. Now the attack moves to destroy them in the public sector as well, in the Janus and other pending cases. VP Bryan explains responses being planned by his union when the Janus decision comes down, likely against the unions. Rasmus and Bryan discuss possible further direct action responses by public unions, perhaps in unity with other social movements now arising—like #MeToo, Black Lives Matter, Fight for $15, DACA and immigrant rights, and Florida students against the NRA. Why the public unions’ response must be more than just legal or even electoral. What might be done. (For more information on Janus and union response, go to SEIU 1021’s website at SEIU1021.org)

TO LISTEN TO THE SHOW PODCAST GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-attack-unions-intensifies-janus-supreme-court-decision-03-02-18/

Listen to my 12 minute interview last week on the ‘Loud and Clear’ radio show on how Trump’s Budget + Tax Cuts will lead to rising bond rates that will precipitate a stock market contraction and in turn a credit crunch and recession in 2019.

Go to: https://www.spreaker.com/user/radiosputnik/trump-s-proposal-cuts-social-programs-fo

Listen to my Feb. 23 Alternative Visions radio show discussion of growing warnings by capitalists and their best economic research sources about the growing debt levels and potential for the next recession next year. My explanation that debt levels alone are not the problem, but the relationships between debt, income, price, and terms and conditions for debt servicing are together the key causal variables (as explained in detail in my 2016 book, ‘Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’, Clarity Press).

To listen to the show, GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-02-23-18/

Or go to:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

“While the mainstream economists and business sources trumpet US and global growth underway, warnings about accelerating debt and recession from capitalist and more independent research sources are emerging as well. Dr. Rasmus reviews statements by Ray Dalio, CEO of the world’s biggest hedge fund, warning a 70% chance of recession, and by the OEDC researchers that government debt alone has risen $20 trillion more since 2008 just for OECD advanced economies (Another $20 for China and other emerging market economies). Rasmus adds rising net totals for household debt and even more for business debt mean debt levels today are worse than in 2008. What matters, however, is the ratio of income(and therefore prices for assets, goods, and labor wages) to debt, Rasmus explains—as detailed in his 2016 book, ‘Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’. The show follows up on prior show topics of Trump tax cuts, war spending, the coming $1 trillion a year in US deficits (and debt), growing assets controlled by shadow banks (private equity, hedge funds, etc.), the now escalating interest rates by the Federal Reserve US central bank, and the intensifying attacks on public employee unions in pending US Supreme Court decisions next week. Rasmus forewarns his prediction in recent articles (see his blog, jackrasmus.com) that Fed rate hikes this year will precipitate a recession in early 2019.”