Jack Rasmus

This past Tuesday, October 6, Trump pulled the plug once again—a second time—on negotiations on a fiscal stimulus between House speaker, Pelosi, and his Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin.

This past week Pelosi and Mnuchin had reportedly been quietly negotiating toward a compromise fiscal stimulus package and were making progress while Trump was in the hospital with his Covid infection. But as soon as Trump returned to the White House, one of his first moves was to scuttle the negotiations. On Tuesday, October 6, he dramatically declared the negotiations were over. Furthermore, he added, there would be no stimulus until sometime after the November elections.

This was not the first time House speaker, Pelosi, and Mnuchin were growing closer to a deal and Trump abruptly intervened unexpectedly and scuttled it.

In an almost identical event earlier this past August Trump intervened and declared the negotiations over. Negotiating with Mnuchin in July and early August, Pelosi had reduced her original fiscal stimulus package costing $3.4 trillion—i.e. the Democrats ‘Heroes Act’ passed way back in late May—to a proposal costing $2 Trillion. That was a drop of $1.4 trillion. The Republican position at the time was the Republican Senate’s so-called ‘Heals Act’, with a cost of $1.5 trillion. Thus the parties were only about $500 billion apart and a deal looked possible in early August.

But once Pelosi-Shumer cut their offer to $2 trillion, Trump had his lead negotiator, chief of staff Mark Meadows, who had taken over as lead negotiator from Mnuchin, abruptly break off negotiations and walk out. That was done without making a counter-offer to Pelosi. In bargaining parlance, Trump had thus ‘sandbagged’ Pelosi with a cheap bargaining trick: namely, get your opponent to make a major move, then instead of countering, break off negotiations altogether. Should negotiations ever resume, your opponent then has to make a second move and concession while you consider only one.

In less than 24 hours after breaking off negotiations in early August, Trump quickly announced his four Executive Orders (EOs). That overnight response strongly suggests Trump had pre-planned to scuttle the August negotiations and had his four Executive Orders already in his pocket, ready to go. Scuttling the negotiations was planned well in advance with the intent of Trump personally taking over the bargaining agenda and thereby to deny Pelosi-Shumer any credit for any eventual stimulus.

Trump’s Executive Orders were largely smoke and mirrors and provided virtually no fiscal stimulus. Clearly Trump wanted to be identified with the public as the guy who delivered a deal and no one else—especially Pelosi and the Democrats. There would be no shared responsibility for stimulus benefits.

Here’s why Trump’s August EOs were more smoke and mirrors, however:

The first Executive Order recommendation that governors could, if they wished, extend the moratorium on rent evictions that was contained in the March 2020 Cares Act passed by Congress. Trump’s EO did not provide for a continuation of a moratorium; just a recommendation, and only if a governor wanted. And few would subsequently prove they wanted.

Trump’s second August EO provided a supplemental unemployment benefit of $300 a week, to replace the $600/wk. benefit that expired at the end of July. That $600 expiration meant $65 billion a month in income for consumption by households was taken out of the economy, starting in August and every month thereafter. In fact, when a standard fiscal multiplier effect of 2X is applied, it reduced potential GDP spending by $130 billion a month. With few states offering even half of that, the US economy lost nearly $100 billion a month, every month, in spending with Trump’s second EO.

But there was more ‘smoke’. Trump’s $300/wk. substitution benefit would apply only if a state threw in another $100. Many state unemployment benefit funds were broke or near busted and many states could not afford the $100, so their workers never got the $300.

More interesting still, the $300 was taken from the fund for disaster relief, which had only $50 billion or so in it. So the $300 was a transfer of funds—from the disaster relief fund to unemployment benefits. That thus offered no net fiscal stimulus spending to the economy. At only $50 billion, the fund was exhausted anyway in just six weeks, by mid-to-late September. By October, moreover, the western fires season reached record levels while the southeast coast hurricane season recorded more hurricanes than there were names available from letters of the alphabet. By October both the disaster relief fund was now depleted as well as the six weeks of $300!

An even greater ‘bag of policy worms’ was Trump’s third EO. It called for a cut in workers’ payroll tax for social security and Medicare. Apart from the unconstitutionality of the Executive branch of government introducing a tax measure unilaterally—when such tax legislation may only arise in the US House of Representatives per the US Constitution—Trump’s payroll tax cut EO was not really a tax cut. It was a payroll tax deferral. (Note that business’s share of the payroll tax was already deferred to the end of 2021 by the March Cares Act). So workers, like businesses, have to pay double payroll taxes sometime in 2021 according to Trump’s payroll tax EO. Given that businesses are legally responsible for collecting and distributing workers’ share of the payroll tax to government, many businesses complained if they cut the workers share of the payroll tax legally they might be liable for paying for both deferrals in 2021—i.e. their deferred tax share and their workers’ deferred tax. So many have since decided to not cut their workers payroll tax. To this date, little research is available summarizing how much payroll taxes for workers have actually been cut.

But Trump nevertheless still claimed publicly when campaigning in blue collar states that he’s cutting their taxes—not just deferring them. Most will not realize they will eventually have to pay double payroll taxes in 2021. When questioned about this possibility, Trump replied he would later make the payroll tax deferral permanent, if he were re-elected. But that’s not likely without Congress approval (which is highly unlikely) and even more unlikely if he’s not elected. Workers will get stuck with paying double payroll taxes in 2021, which will have a double negative impact on household spending and the US GDP.

The payroll tax EO is also an insidious way of undermining social security and Medicare—one of Trump’s and Republicans’ major policy objectives: i.e. reduce the revenues necessary to make social security retirement benefits and Medicare payments for retirees in 2021. Then call for massive social security and Medicare benefit cuts to make up the difference.

Trump’s fourth EO extended the deferral of payments on students’ government education debt until the end of December 2020. With record and rising levels of defaults on the $1.7 trillion current student debt, the extension only recognized the obvious: that debt payments wouldn’t be made for the overwhelming majority of the unemployed anyway.

These four Executive Orders, issued in mid-August, represent Trump’s taking over control of the bargaining agenda for the fiscal stimulus. Pelosi-Shumer and company were cleverly set up and then ‘punked’, as they say. Trump now looked like he had the real control over whether a fiscal stimulus would happen or not, and that he alone was powerful enough to deliver any stimulus. It would be his stimulus. The problem was, the four EOs amounted no stimulus at all! His stimulus via EOs was no stimulus and key sectors of the US economy have continued to weaken in August and after.

More than a million and a half workers every week, from mid-August to early October, have continued to file every week for first time unemployment benefits. That’s more than 10 million. As that million and a half applied weekly for benefits for the first time, another million a week began exhausting the unemployment benefits they had been collecting since March-April. By October more than 20 million workers would be considered long-duration jobless, and thus unlikely to ever get their jobs back. More than 5 million workers dropped out of the labor force, giving up on getting jobs. And 4.3 million in two paycheck families would have to quit work to manage their K-6 grade children struggling with remote education from home. The jobs picture was worsening, not improving. But that’s not the only indicator of the failure of Trump’s EOs as a fiscal stimulus.

Commencing in August and subsequent months, tens of millions of working families started being evicted from their rents, and hundreds of thousands of lower income family home ownersbegan to default and go into foreclosure as well.

Meanwhile, millions of small businesses began filing for bankruptcy by late summer and closing or preparing to do so. According to the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), a trade association for small businesses, no fewer than 21% of the approximate 30 million small businesses in the US had closed, or would close, in the coming months!
In other words, Trump’s feeble four Executive Orders had virtually no positive on the economy by September-October 2020—as jobs, unemployed, rent evictions, foreclosures, business closings all began to deteriorate by late 3rd quarter 2020.

Given these conditions, Pelosi-Shumer and Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, attempted one last time in early October to try to reach a deal on a stimulus bill before the November 3 elections. Mnuchin reportedly raised his offer from his late July $1.5 trillion position to $1.6 trillion. Pelosi-Shumer’s position as of early October was $2.2 (having raised it slight from $2 trillion in response to Trump’s breaking off negotiations in August after the Democrats reduced their proposals to $2 trillion). Reportedly as well, however, they again considered $2 trillion.

With around only $400-$500 billion difference in terms of final cost of a fiscal package both parties—Pelosi and Mnuchin—were not so far apart they couldn’t reach an agreement. That is, until Trump abruptly intervened again and called off the Pelosi-Mnuchin negotiations.

In early October, as in August previously, the main sticking points to an agreement appeared to be the Democrats’ demand to bail out State and Local governments, which were soon to have to layoff hundreds of thousands of public employees due to tax revenue collapse. The Trump-McConnell position has always been to deny any funds for state-local government since, in their view, most would go to the larger ‘blue’ states. The other sticky qualitative issue was the Republican-Trump demand that businesses be absolved from all liability claims during the pandemic period. Democrats feared this blanket liability exclusion would allow businesses exemption from all liabilities for health and safety of their workers or the local communities in which they did business.

Despite both negotiating parties closing the gap toward a deal, Trump abruptly broke off the negotiations once again, a second time, on October 6 and declared the negotiations dead until after the election.

As in August, Trump again a second time personally took over control of the bargaining agenda on October 6. But by saying ‘no further negotiations until after the election’ he set off a shit storm of complaints from his business base. The stock markets, which had been hundreds of points up on October 6, after Trump’s theatrical return from the hospital to the White House, in late hours tanked hundreds of points into the red after Trump’s announcement of no stimulus until after the elections.

So Trump put on his twitter hat after the markets closed and slung out a series of tweets, including retracting his earlier announcement of no new negotiations until after November 3.

But that was not all. Further tweets challenged Pelosi-Shumer to agree to separate bills on the content of the Pelosi-Mnuching talks. He taunted Pelosi to agree to a bill just to bail out the airlines. Another just to provide a second round of $1,200 income checks. Another to provide more grants for small businesses. And so on. The not so clever intent here was obviously to suck Pelosi and Shumer in and get them to break up their package proposal and negotiate directly with Trump, item by item. But to do so would concede all their bargaining leverage, as they say. Trump would be in a position to cherry pick and agree to the separate provisions he wants, and veto line by line the ones he doesn’t. It was evidence that Trump just can’t let any one else take credit for a deal. It has to be all his to brag about.

It will be interesting to see if Pelosi and the Democrats fall for Trump’s latest bargaining trick. He’s proven in the past not to be a trustful good faith bargainer. They enter Trump’s latest fools game at their risk!

But regardless whether they fall for Trump’s latest trick or not, should anything result it will appear as if Trump delivered the deal—not Congress and Mnuchin. Trump the great negotiator! Knows the ‘Art of the Deal’! But that’s all Trump: Take the credit always, appear responsible for everything positive, and throw everyone else under the bus should anything fail! And never, never negotiate in good faith. That’s only for “suckers and losers”, in Trump parlance.

Like his obviously staged return from the hospital to the White House, Trump is all drama and theater. To borrow a well worn literary phrase, “there’s no there there”.

But the US economy now more than ever needs something ‘there’, it needs a real fiscal stimulus not phony theater. It has entered the fourth quarter of 2020 with ominous negative economic signs on the horizon: large corporations are now announcing permanent layoffs (not furloughs) by the tens of thousands. Unemployment claims have begun to clearly rise again. Evictions and foreclosures and business closures are now escalating as well. A second Covid 19 wave is beginning to appear in the US, just as it has in Europe and elsewhere. That will mean more shutdowns, even if only partial. And more reluctance by consumers to spend on services like travel, leisure, hospitality, restaurants, movies, theater, entertainment, shopping at malls, buying gas, sports events, to name but the most obvious.

The combination of no fiscal stimulus and a Covid resurgence is ominous for the US economy. Even more ominous is the growing likelihood of major political instability erupting—institutionally and in the streets—around Trump’s oft-stated intent not to recognize the outcome of the November elections should he lose, driven by his unsubstantiated claim of fraudulent mail in ballot voting.

Trump has already begun moving his political chess pieces to challenge the election and refuse to leave office. Teams of his lawyers are filing hundreds of court injunctions against counting mail in ballots, in particular in the swing states. Pro-Trump red state legislators meanwhile are throwing hundreds of thousands of voters off the voting rolls, reducing polling locations in minority neighborhoods, eliminating drop boxes for ballots in some cases to one per city, sending ‘observers’ to intimidate voters at polling stations. Simultaneously, Mitch McConnell in the Senate is rushing to confirm Trump’s latest Supreme Court nominee, to ensure he has a 6-3 safe majority on the Court should it come down to the Supreme Court calling for a halt to counting mail in ballots, especially in swing states that will determine the election; or to legitimize other tactical moves by Trump lawyers trying to prevent mail in ballot vote counting.

A most likely scenario is the following: Trump lawyers in swing states get recent McConnell appointed pro-Trump district and appeals court judges to declare mail in ballots cannot be accurately counted for various reasons. With mail in ballot counting suspended, Trump lawyers then ask Republican controlled state legislators to pick the ‘electors’ for the electoral college, who would almost certainly vote for Trump. That way the Supreme Court may not have to directly ‘select’ Trump, as they did with George W. Bush in 2000. But they would indirectly, by enabling the state legislators to select the electors that then select Trump. (This was the way Senators used to be ‘elected’ before the US Constitution was amended to provide for direct election of Senators).

The more economic, political, and health crises and confusion there is around November 3 and after, the more likely the Courts will defer to the above scenario in the name of restoring social order.

So it just may be that Trump doesn’t really want a fiscal stimulus before November 3. A deeper economic crisis may better serve his political strategy. Maybe his latest ‘line by line’ tweets are just that—a delaying tactic.

Dr. Jack Rasmus
October 6, 2020

Follow Jack Rasmus on his blog, jackrasmus.com, for weekly articles, on Twitter for daily commentary at @drjackrasmus, and on his weekly radio show, Alternative Visions, on the Progressive Radio Network every Friday at 2pm eastern time. His various interviews, book reviews, videos, plays and longer articles are available on his website, http://kyklosproductions.com

In my various blog pieces, twitter comments, and radio show presentations and interviews, I’ve argued that in a war time economic crisis environment–of which the Covid 19 has created–it is necessary for the federal government to raise its level of government spending as a percent of annual GDP to at least 40%. That’s what we did in the USA in 1941-42. That’s real spending, not tax cutting, that takes the form of household consumption and/or business real investment in plant, equipment, production expansion–that hires more workers and provides a continuation of wage income that in turn stimulates more consumption.

On the eve of World War II the US government spending percent of GDP was barely 15%, given even the New Deal social programs. In 1929 it was a mere 3%. A war time spending stimulus quickly raised it to 40% where it remained the next four years until 1945. Unemployment quickly fell from more than 10% in 1940 to only 1.9% by 1943.

As I’ve been arguing for months, the March 2020 Cares Act amounted to only an increase of 5% more actual government spending as a percent of GDP, which was around 20% before the crisis–where it’s more or less averaged in the post 1947 period. The Cares Act called for $3.2 trillion, but $650 billion of that was in business-investor tax cuts which were, and remain, largely hoarded or unused. It’s never gotten into the US economy as a true fiscal stimulus. Tax cuts in deep crises typically get hoarded. In addition, about $1.7 trillion more of the Cares Act was set aside in the form of loans to medium and large businesses. Only around $150B of that has actually been borrowed and gotten into the economy. It’s still sitting there waiting to be claimed by businesses, medium and large. Only $500 billion in unemployment benefits and household checks plus $525 billion of grants to small businesses have actually gotten into the economy. That’s barely 5% of GDP. This deep contraction of the real economy since March is 4 times worse than 2008-09, during which the fiscal stimulus package was also about 5%. We’ve had no real fiscal stimulus to date. The Cares Act was a mitigation act, designed to buy time of 8 weeks or so until a real stimulus could be introduced. McConnell-Trump have made sure so far it has not been introduced. That’s why the ‘rebound’ from reopening the economy is now waning and a relapse is on the horizon. That, by the way, is a W-shape “recovery” trajectory.

Now to my other point. In a recent interview I gave with JKunstler on his radio show, I explained this previous analysis. One of the listeners has taken issue, however, with the idea we need to spend 40% of GDP. He argues that was possible in World War II when the US had 70% of the world’s assets; now it doesn’t even have “two nickels to rub” (note that’s a metaphor and not an economic statistic of analysis). Beware of economics by metaphor, by professionals or amateurs. It usually means they have no explanation and substitute metaphors for economic analysis.

Here’s my reply elsewhere on line to the gentlemen without ‘two nickels’ and his argument that the US had 70% of world’s assets in the 1940s and thus could afford to spend 40% of GDP, but now is essentially broke! (By the way, government’s that control the world currency (the US$) don’t go broke ever. And the private sector in the US is sitting on tens of trillions of dollars of assets far greater than during the 1940s that could be taxed without negatively affecting the economy, since most of that is sitting on corporate balance sheets unused or being pittered away in financial market speculation globally).

Again here’s my reply to Mr. ‘not two nickels’, why we can, and should, spend 40% of GDP in stimulus if we’re ever to get out of this crisis economically’:

“In absolute terms the USA has far more wealth assets than it did in 1944. The 70% then was based on the ROW having very little. So please no simple percentage analyses! “now have not two nickels” is just a misleading subjective anecdotal phrase. Finally, government spending potential is not based on the magnitude of private asset accumulation, especially when the latter is just fictitious financial securities price level measured. The US government could deficit spend $15 trillion over revenues, which would bring its national debt approximately even with that of Japan’s. And the latter appears to be able to absorb an 180% of GDP deficit and debt without collapsing.  So go back and start with the 40% GDP war time spending experience. We’re already at around 25%+ of annual GDP. We need at least another $3 trillion in direct spending (not tax cuts that get hoarded in these kind of situations). To date only about $1.1T of actual spending has occurred in the Cares Act. The rest is medium-large business loans that haven’t been taken up by corporations and $650B in investor-business tax cuts that have had little direct effect on stimulus as investment thus far. Like the corporate loans it’s been mostly still hoarded on bank balance sheets and not gotten into the economy as yet. Try reading Keynes’ General Theory and find out why tax cuts, interest rate cuts, and business cost cutting in general does not get transmitted into real investment in conditions of the business cycle like we face today.”

Dr. Jack Rasmus
copyright September 30, 2020

The 1st Presidential debate of 2020 held last night, September 29, was a reflection of the growing systemic social crisis in the USA. This is what we saw:

1) a refusal of the representatives (Trump & Biden) of the two wings of the Corporate Party of America to propose any actual solutions to the multiple crises now all intensifying across the country—health, economic, racism, and climate.

2) identity politics run amuck, now writ large at the highest political levels—i.e. the Great Distraction in full force, crowding out and preventing solutions to the crises.

3) a harbinger of political chaos just around the corner—at both a street level and in the major political institutions of the country—and the collapse of Democracy before our eyes.

The commentary of the media following the chaotic exchange (none dare call it a debate) focused on the ‘form’ rather than the content of the exchange: Trump went wild interrupting Biden and stealing much of Biden’s time. The moderator, Fox News’ Chris Wallace, was either incompetent in his inability to stop Trump or else willing to let him continue and intervening only when Trump had succeeded in drowning out most of Biden’s talk. Biden too was unable to deal with Trump’s antics, at times taking Trump’s bait and falling into his trap.

But what’s so new about all that? That’s Trump, who came to give a speech to his 40% voter ‘red’ base—i.e. the third party at the debate!

Nevertheless, the media talking heads were shocked that Trump would engage in such an egotistical, disrespectful disregard for the rules of the debate which he had pre-agreed to. To the media the ‘form’ of the debate was thus more important than any content that might have addressed today’s multiple real crises.

1) The Multiple Crises Ignored (Economic, Health, Race, Climate)

Biden raised the New York Times’ story released over the weekend in which Trump’s tax returns showed Trump paid only $750 in total federal income taxes over two years, 2016-2017. Trump of course denied it as ‘fake news’. And that was that. There was no follow up discussing the four decades long tax system rip off. Nor about why both parties (i.e. both wings of the one party) since 2001 have given investors, corporations, and the wealthiest US households more than $15 trillion in tax cuts. GW Bush $4.7T, Obama $6.1T, Trump $5T with both parties agreeing to another $650B just last March.

Nor was there any mention of the escalating income inequality on both Republican & Democrat watches that was enabled by the $15 trillion tax redistribution to corporations and the rich. Nothing was said why Trump’s tax rip off resulted in wealthy investors getting $3.4 trillion in stock buybacks and dividend payouts in just the last three years; or why under Obama they got more than $6 trillion in buybacks & dividends on his watch!

And nothing was said by either of them why there are still 40 million American workers jobless, or why tens of millions of those lost jobs will never return, or why a long line of big corporations are now announcing permanent layoffs by the tens of thousands.

Biden never bothered to raise the point why millions of small businesses have gone under and millions more are about to do so. He could have quoted the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), the trade association arm of small businesses in the US, and its recent forecast that 21% of the roughly 30 million small businesses have already, or soon will close, if no real fiscal stimulus and bailout is passed. Trump of course ignored that altogether. He no doubt would have called the NFIB survey ‘fake news’.

There was a brief exchange on US manufacturing by both candidates, but both were wrong on the facts. The business cycle in 2008-10 destroyed millions of manufacturing jobs, only some of which came back and then mostly as two tiered, temp, low paid, no benefits jobs. The current recession is now in repeat mode in manufacturing. Production is up but jobs aren’t being restored. Biden could have indicated manufacturing was in a recession for the six months prior to Covid but he didn’t. And neither candidate discussed why free trade deals, in addition to the recessions, have destroyed at least 4 million US manufacturing jobs. Biden clearly will not go there since he and the Democrats, like the Republicans, are champions of free trade deals. The Dems praised the recent phony NAFTA 2.0 agreement negotiated by Trump. Trump’s promise to bring back those jobs in 2016 has been all smoke and mirrors. But did Biden bother to cite the facts?

And what about trade? Trump claimed his trade wars have been a glowing success. Is that why he’s had to subsidize the farm sector with $49 billion in cash handouts since 2018 (with $17B more promised)! If his trade wars have been so successful, why has he had to funnel billions of dollars in hand outs to his agribusiness buddies? Why have more than 10,000 small farmers gone bankrupt annually in recent years? Biden said nothing of the subsidy to agribusinesses still earning billions in profits or the bankruptcies of small family farms. For Biden the ‘trade problem’ is not the escalating subsidies to business or the destruction of jobs in the millions; it’s just a China deficit issue, the numbers of which he couldn’t even quote correctly.

So far as the health/Covid crisis is concerned, there was an exchange in last night’s ‘debate’. But it came down to Biden saying we should wear masks and Trump saying a vaccine was around the corner. That’s it. Biden noted correctly, of course, that Trump has grossly mismanaged the handling of the virus response. To which Trump simply retorted Biden would close down the entire economy again. Trump’s position is ‘Horror of horrors! We can’t save grandma and grandpa if the profits of our nail salons are the cost’! Biden’s position: Yes we can. Let’s all wear masks.

But where was the discussion that the US total reliance on private businesses and ‘markets’ has in large part been responsible for the magnitude of the Covid crisis in the US? The US had outsourced its production of PPE to China and elsewhere before the crisis. There was no mention of that, because both parties have agreed for decades to provide business tax incentives to move operations offshore. There was not a word about the responsibility of US businesses that conveniently offshored critical US goods like PPE and now testing agents to ensure greater profits for themselves. Now, with a second Covid wave imminent this winter, the US still lacks reagents and other pharmaceutical materials needed to do effective testing. Six months into the Covid crisis US business continues to offshore production of critical health supplies, despite US deaths are now predicted to exceed 400,000 by year’s end. That’s more US dead in less than a year than occurred during nearly four years of World War II. But still no war production plan is in place in the US. Neither Trump or Biden has proposed one. Trump, the great admirer of private business and stock markets, is still reluctant act like a ‘war president’ in the worst war confronting the US since 1941. Why? Because he knows that means stepping on the toes of his business buddies and election campaign contributors. For the same reason Biden won’t go there.

For Biden to propose putting the US on a war production footing would mean seizing the necessary production assets of private business, including big pharma companies, and returning it all to the US under a central war production plan. His wing of the Corporate Party of America is no more interested in doing that than Trump’s wing. Nor Trump or Biden explained how a vaccine might be fairly distributed to all Americans next year, or how a million tests a day would be produced and administered.

Biden not surprisingly defended Obamacare, the ACA, focusing on how it protected pre-existing conditions. Trump bragged about how he gutted it by ending the individual mandate.

But what did either say about the fact nearly 50 million workers and families are again uninsured? And at least another 30-40 million grossly under-insured? Biden’s answer was to add the ‘public option’ to Obamacare—which Obama himself pulled from the ACA in 2010. That way private employers can keep their tax write offs for continuing to provide their employees health insurance while the health insurers can continue to reap record profits from both private employer plans and the ACA. Biden specifically rejected any notion of Medicare for All. Trump said he had an alternative plan to replace ACA—which he’s been saying for three years but not showing!

In short, both candidates provided no answer to how to manage the continuing Covid crisis, nor to the even worse general health crisis in the US. The USA remains in the ranks of 3rd world banana republics when it comes to the health security of all but the wealthiest of its citizens.

And what about the discussion of race relations and policing in America? Here a heated exchange did occur. Biden’s answer was to get local police departments, politicians and select community leaders together to ‘unite America’. Somehow that would end systemic racism and institutionalized police repression. Trump attacked that idea as well as race ‘sensitivity’ training programs in general, which he recently declared cancelled. According to Trump, the programs were demeaning to whites and suggested they were reverse racists. White folks don’t want to be reminded of that, he said. Even more, they don’t want to be forced to ‘role play’ as blacks. It’s demeaning. And that was that, i.e. the full extent of the discussion of systemic racism in America: let’s do more sensitivity training (Biden); let’s not because it’s reverse racism and might make his white folk political base uncomfortable. They don’t like being role played as black (Trump).

And climate change? Biden’s answer was to rejoin the Paris Accords and maybe spend some more money on alternative energy infrastructure, as he went out of his way to reiterate his rejection of the notion of a ‘Green New Deal’. Trump’s answer to climate warming was it was too expensive for American business, even though they’re reaping historical maximum profits and getting trillions of dollars of tax cuts and subsidies every year. Trump then attacked Biden for California being consumed by forest fires, saying the Dems there have mismanaged the forest floor by not raking up enough leaves. Biden said nothing in return about the fact that 65% of California’s forests are federal land, and if anyone was responsible for not ‘raking the leaves’ it was Trump’s own Interior Department. But he did say there were larger storms in Iowa, whatever that meant. Neither candidate has a clue what to do about the climate crisis.

In summary, neither Trump or Biden addressed the real issues or proposed any credible solutions to the multiple crises afflicting America today— multiple crises now intensifying, converging, and exacerbating each other.

2) Identity Politics Run Amuck

What we also saw in the first presidential debate is a reflection—at the highest level of politics and within the US elite itself—of the country’s descent into the muck of identity politics.

US society is becoming mired in the plague of identity politics. At all levels, the focus is increasingly on extreme individualism—often at the expense of the public good. Rational discussion and solutions to collective crises are crowded out of public discourse. Replaced by fear-mongering appeals to identity among their political supporters by the politicians and elites of both wings of the Corporate Party of America.

White European Americans are fearful their culture, jobs, and ‘way of life’ is about to give way to the ‘others’—i.e. all the peoples of color whether Latin, Muslim, and other immigrants coming into the country; and to those of color (African Americans) already here but growing in number as well.

Like the Jews in Germany, large sections of white European Americans see black Americans as the ‘others’ living within our midst but not really one of us. Like the German Jews, they are the foreigners allowed to come here by past politicians. As in Germany, the ‘others’ become the ‘enemy within’ and the symbol of all the causes of their economic and social fears, insecurity, and anxiety—as politicians and elites re-direct the cause of social decay from their policies to the ‘others’—i.e. the Latin immigrants, blacks, LGBTQ, etc. Immigrants, blacks, and gays are the cause of their declining standard of living, their culture, and their way of life—so say the Trumpublicans and their media; white European ‘deplorables’ are preventing you people of color from achieving your rightful identity as equals to white European Americans—so say the Democrats and their media.

It’s all part of the ‘Great Distraction’, designed to allow the elites of both wings to continue to pick all our pockets while we’re preoccupied with identity issues and politics. So long as we’re immersed in issues of identity that separate us there’s no need to divide and conquer so they can continue to pick our pockets. Identity means by definition we’ve divided ourselves from each other.

Technology of course plays a conscious role in enabling the descent into extreme individualism and dead end identity.

The youngest are mesmerized by their electronic gadgets that enable them to focus neurotically on themselves for hours upon hour every day, absorbing most of their waking lives. Young adults are immersed in social media sourced news and pseudo-facts. As they come to realize they are condemned for life to lives of indentured, low pay, part time and temp service employment, they desperately seek and embrace simplistic ideologies as an explanation for their plight. Middle age adults become increasingly insecure and fearful as they see their families’ futures dim and realize they are approaching older age and retirement without pensions and sufficient income to keep themselves from poverty. They look for a ‘strongman’ to save them quickly.

They all become fodder for clever manipulation, fear mongering by media talking heads, and conspiracy theories multiplying daily on social media that substitute for the thinking and the evaluating of facts and opinions that is necessary for rational thought. The network does the thinking for them. People fearful and in crisis grab the nearest exit and short cut to explain their situation and grab a solution.

The capitalist media no longer consists of objective presenters of facts and events but subjective interpreters and spinners of facts and events. The subjective media is the new priest providing the congregation of the fearful and desperate the answers it wants them to absorb—except now it all occurs on a daily and by the minute basis instead of just on Sunday mornings. The result is predictable: when confronted with objective facts, such facts are rejected since they don’t conform to their rapidly expanding fantasy world of conspiracies and the messaging of media spin doctors.

Tell me what I already believe or I’ll listen to someone else who will! Don’t tell me what I don’t want to hear’. Tell me something so that I can cheer: ‘Hooray for our side’.

People are so concerned trying to understand who they are that they are unable to see who they are becoming, manipulated by the political elites who have found playing the identity card works well for keeping folks—white and non-white—from understanding the real source of their fears, their anxieties, their growing angst. That real source originates in the policies of both parties that are ever-enriching their wealthy elites at the expense of the rest of society.

Identity politics is the Heroin fix necessary to create the social stupor of the Great Distraction. And the flip side of the Great Distraction of identity politics is the Big Rip-off—where the same elites and politicians of both wings of the Corporate Party of America pick our pockets.

What we’ve just seen at the highest level in yesterday’s 1st presidential debate is the same focus on Identity politics, albeit now write large at the highest level. The same Great Distraction that has been intensifying in America for years. The same Big Rip Off in action!

In the first presidential debate both Biden and Trump immersed themselves in a personality food fight, like teenagers in a high school cafeteria: Trump attacked Biden as ‘sleepy Joe’ who Trump even suggested failed to graduate from college. Adding that to Trump’s pre-debate comments that Joe has early onset dementia and has to take performance drugs to stay awake and debate. Biden in turn declared Trump a clown. A neurotic egotist. Sick. Mentally unfit. And told him to just ‘shut up’.

The disease of identity politics in America has thus bubbled up like foul smelling swamp gas from society at large, to the very top echelons of the American political elite. Every election cycle we say the quality of the candidates put up to represent can’t get worse; but it does.

Listening to the media commentators at CNN and other outlets after the ‘debate’, the talking head experts were perplexed and repeatedly asked each other why any voter would continue to support Trump after his childish performance in last night’s debate? Conversely, at Fox the spin was his performance was precisely why his base continues to support him. What the former don’t understand, and the latter won’t admit, is that Trump’s 40% base remains solid no matter what he says, how he says it, or what he does. And that’s for a fundamental reason that also has to do with Identity.

For white European Americans, Trump is the bulwark against the ‘others’. He stands unequivocally against the changing demographic where White Europeans will soon no longer constitute the majority. They fear should that happen, not only their jobs but their culture, their values, their religion, and ‘their America’ will be no more! That single, fundamental reason is why they overlook everything about Trump and still support him regardless of his racism, his misogyny, his proto-fascist inclinations, his disrespect for democratic practices and norms, his verbal slips about ‘suckers and losers’ in the military, and all the rest. Nothing matters except he hold back the wave of colored folks of varying hues that will take away their America.

And with more than 350 million guns in America (and more than 15 million assault rifles) many of them are prepared to go to violent extremes if need be. Many are just waiting for the ‘Big Dog Whistle’ from Trump.

3) A Political Crisis of Unimaginable Dimensions

In an essay entitled, ‘A Most Dire Warning’ a couple weeks ago this writer predicted the most likely scenario following the November 3 election. It included Trump taking legal action to stop the mail in ballot vote counting by turning to his now many Federal District and Appeals court judge appointees. The scenario includes Trump declaring himself the winner on November 3-4, knowing that more Republicans will vote directly that day than will mail in ballots than Biden supporters will vote directly. CNN polls show 66% of Trump supporters will vote directly vs. only 22% Biden supporters. That means Trump will likely show an early lead, supported by exit polling. But he must stop the mail ballot counting or he may lose in the end. He will rely on his soon 6-3 US Supreme Court majority to support Appeals court decisions to stop the voting in select swing or blue states. There is a precedent for this already. It’s exactly what the Supreme Court did in 2000 to ‘select’ George W. Bush as president. It stopped the vote recount in Florida to give Bush the presidency. Only this time it will be multiple states and the original mail in ballot vote counting that may be halted. Protests that erupt will be met with physical police force. That too is being planned. Protestors will be identified as ‘Antifa’ and ‘BLM’ militants and repressed. The federal police force created in 2002 for the first time in US history—called the DHS—are the favored instruments. But Trump may call on his radical fascist street supporters to assist where necessary as well. And the more the street level social chaos the more likely the Supreme Court will tend to try to settle the dispute to end the street chaos.

In yesterday’s debate, the moderator asked Trump if he would call on his street supporters to not get involved. To this he answered, “Proud Boys ( a widespread neo-fascist group in America today) Stand Back. Stand By”. Immediately the radical right, hearing these words, began to mobilize and prepare for Trump’s ‘big dog whistle’ on November 4.

Trump will not accept the outcome should he lose on November 3. Nor in January 2021. He said “we might not know for months” the final vote count. That means well beyond January 2021. In the meantime, he further noted he’s “counting on the Supreme Court to look at the ballots”. Will the SCOTUS review the tens of millions of mail in ballots directly! Trump concluded “This is not going to end well”.

For his part, Biden declared to the TV audience “He can’t stop you from the outcome of this election”. If we get the votes, he’s not going to stay in power”. But what Biden fails to understand is we may not get all the votes if the mail ballots end up not being counted—as happened in 2000 in Florida thanks to the same Supreme Court that is soon even more in Trump’s camp today than it was in Bush’s in 2000! Biden’s pre-debate statement that the US military will ‘escort him out of the White House’ was wishful thinking as well. The Pentagon generals the next day publicly stated they would not get involved. So who will ‘escort’ Trump out? The Democrats have no executive arm; Trump does: the DHS swat teams and most of the police departments in the country that support his election. And then there’s the Proud Boys neo-fascists who may just descend upon Washington D.C. and take up positions around the White House, armed with their AR-15s when Trump blows his whistle. Who’s going to try to escort Trump out in that scenario?

The exchange by Trump and Biden on what each would do on the day of the election and after was undoubtedly the most important exchange of the entire 1st presidential debate. All the rest was irrelevant verbal bombast, appeals to identity politics, and personality clash. Viewers of the debate learned nothing about how America might extract itself from its intensifying multiple crises. What they learned is that a political crisis may be coming, the likes of which haven’t been seen in America since 1860.

Dr. Jack Rasmus
September 30, 2020

In the following interview with Parallax Views host, J. Michael (our 2nd), I and the host discuss at length the possible–and most likely–scenario to unfold after November 3 and the US elections. Michaels and I discuss, and go beyond, my views set forth in my Sept. 22, 2020 article, ‘A Most Dire Warning’, in which I briefly described the most likely scenario Trump will follow immediately following the November 3 election results. The role of Trump’s 6-3 majority Supreme Court, the stopping of mail in ballot vote counting in key states, voter suppression on going in red states, and other political maneuvers.

TO LISTEN TO OUR 1-Hour Interview of September 25, 2020

GO TO:

https://parallaxviews.podbean.com/e/jrasmus2/— /wp:paragraph –>

Since the publication of my latest blog post, ‘A Most Dire Warning’, a few days ago, in which I described what I believe is Trump’s most likely scenario to usurp the electoral process to stay in power, a number of radical right responders have crawled out of the woodwork to disagree to this scenario and to provoke a debate. One can’t debate, however, with people who have a completely opposite idea of the facts and I’m not about to give them another pulpit on this blog to spew their right wing rant–with this one time exception to follow. Why? Because their typical response to Trump’s emerging legal ‘coup d-etat’ is to turn on its head all the facts and efforts of Trump and to attribute them to the activities and efforts of Biden and the Democrats. This is how Ideology works–invert the facts and arguments, deny you’ve said them and argue it’s the opposition that’s doing them, conveniently delete facts, conveniently insert false facts into the arguments and positions of your opponents, reverse the cause and effect in statements and positions of your opponents, and so on. It’s all about manipulating language in order to falsify one’s position and attribute the worst of it to your opponents. Ideology is misrepresentation and falsification of reality! And the Trumpers are good at it, as is Trump himself.

That’s why I’ve bothered here to present my response to one of the rants from the right to my post, ‘A Most Dire Warning’. Here’s my response with a posting of the pile of lies, falsifications, and misrepresentations of the commentator to follow. It will be the only such exchange allowed on this blog.

MY RESPONSE & REPLY TO THE RADICAL RIGHT on Trump’s Plan to subvert the coming election:

Let me respond to a few points of your obvious right wing rant. Typical of it all is your 180 degree inversion of the facts: blame the Dems (of whom I’m no friend) for exactly what Trump is doing. Your charge Dems with ‘throwing the election in doubt’, when that’s exactly what Trump is doing. Dems creating chaos, when that’s what Trump is doing. Stealing the election, when that’s what Trump is doing (massive voter suppression, intimidation at polling stations, plans to stop the mail in vote count, etc.). Dems are liars like Communists, when Trump is verified as the greatest liar of all presidents in our history. A long list of politicians are traitors and should be ‘guillotined’, as you say. Not just executed but cut off their heads you say–just like Al Queda and Isis. Are you any different than them? Doesn’t appear so. The assassination of blacks by police is all justified in all cases, you argue. Charlottesville right wing violence was a hoax you say. (Everything is a hoax that you can’t refute factually). Biden is demented and not really the Dems candidate; Harris is and she (a black and a woman, horror!) will be president. The entire media is manipulating the election against Trump. (Even Fox news and Breitbart, BlabberBuzz, Raw Conservative Opinion, etc? Dems are fomenting unrest and domestic violence. Not Proud Boys and all the other neurotic gun toting special forces wannabees. And then you conclude with ‘Republicans weren’t hell bent on removing Obama’. (They didn’t have to, he was doing–or more accurately not doing–anything to stop them stack the federal courts and select Trump to lead them). Nor was he stepping all over the Constitution and separation of powers to push his agenda to give businesses, investors and the wealthy 1% $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, as Trump has thus far). Then you close with “Republicans can accept election results”, your biggest lie. Any fool knows that Trump, in his own words and many times, has indicated he will not accept the results”. And neither will you, I predict, should Trump lose. I suspect you’ll be among the first when Trump calls to rush down to the White House with your AR-15 to ‘defend’ it against the mass protests that will fill Washington DC later this year. To stand with your DHS swat team buddies. Your rant is out of the play book of Joseph Goebbels, whom I’m sure you never read but I have: Tell a lie long enough and get the ignorant folks to believe it. And the lie is ‘inverting’ the truth, the facts, and attribute to the Dems and Biden everything that Trump himself is saying and planning to do.

And don’t tell me ‘have a nice day’ because I know what you really mean is ‘f*** you’. And don’t bother to reply here to my response. I won’t post your rant further or take your bait to engage in a further discussion. You guys have plenty of media outlets in which to spew your trash. You don’t need mine. I don’t intend to vote for Biden but I do intend to vote against Trump and to vote to defend what’s left of our democracy in this country, which Trump, Barr and all the rest are clearly planning to destroy–starting with the legitimacy of elections.

HERE’S THE ORIGINAL RADICAL RIGHT REPLY TO ‘A MOST DIRE WARNING’‘

gulfcoastcommentary
3 hours ago

Jack, you and your single commenter are massively afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome. How could I possibly trust your judgment in ANY area of inquiry??

There is plenty of precedent for the president to seat a Supreme Court nominee even at this late date. It’s HIS JOB to fill the vacancy! And he’s right that the democrats are already readying widespread litigation right now to throw the election result into doubt and that the Supreme Court will be likely be required to settle the election. They will need a 9th jurist. Democrat’s have tried fervently and constantly to create chaos and smear the Trump administration.

Everyone knows that the Democrats are desperate to steal the election. First of all, if you can go to Starbucks with masks, you can go vote in person. But no! There will be massive DEMOCRATIC fraud with bullshit ballots. It’s already coming to light with discarded ballots! Anyone with a brain knows that it’s Democrats that are the biggest liars and cheaters in the world—right alongside all the Communists. Bloomberg just jumped in to “bribe” convicted felons to vote by paying off their criminal debts in Florida. Are you OK with that? How desperate are these people? Answer: VERY. Democrats are rightly going to the ash-heap of history. Repubs are not much better, but Dems are much more deranged. Dementia Joe will not be elected, nor should he. He’s a total joke at this point.

It is Democrats that have tried seditiously to overturn their 2016 election defeat with lies, false accusations, phony dossiers. The entire Mueller Russia hoax was a completely obvious joke if it wasn’t such a Constitutional travesty.. All of the actors in the Russia Hoax scandal should already be in jail or executed. They are all traitors. People like Hillary, Obama, Comey, Rosenstein, Mueller, Podesta, Rice, Brennan, Clapper, Strock, Schiff and many others should already have been arrested for Treason or Sedition and/or other applicable crimes and sent to military trials. Personally, I think that this country should bring back the public guillotine to behead these traitors. That’s how outrageous their crimes are. Lying to the FISA court, all the Media lies and liars—all based on NOTHING. It’s all been demonstrably proven as lies and smears. It’s the only thing Democrats are good at. .

Everything is a hoax or lies with the Democrats. Speaking of lies, Black Lives Matter is all based on lies. Hands up, don’t shoot was all lies. That the US is a racist country is a lie. That police kill blacks disproportionately is a lie. What BLM stands for now is a lie. BLM is rapidly being turned into a “terrorist” organization in deed, thought and practice. They are promoting violence, thuggery and destruction along with Antifa across the nation. Blacks ruin everything. So it’s no wonder that BLM is now a criminal and violent source of anarchy across the nation– all because they believe in a bunch of lies!!

Here’s another good dose of truth for you: In the BLM website, there’s a lot of nice words that mean nothing. But nothing can cover up the real intent of these people. They think Trayvon Martin, George Floyd, Eric Garner and Michael Brown were all “murdered” without reason despite the result of trials and due process that say something entirely different. All these “victims” were so upstanding and angelic according to Left-wing media. Michael Brown was a horrible and violent thug who committed suicide by cop after robbing and assaulting a convenience store clerk just minutes before attacking officer Wilson TWICE! Ferguson shows what a total disaster that black community is, Obama’s DoJ found out that 16,000 out of 21,000 residents in Ferguson had outstanding arrest warrants! Do you really think it’s any different in any or ALL the other black shit-holes?? These people cannot exist in any kind of civilized society. And why was Zimmerman even working at Martin’s complex?? Because of rampant crime in that community of course! Crime is rampant in every black community. Democrats are the party of massively stupid and criminal blacks. Non-criminal blacks should vote for Trump. And they might!

The Charlottesville “fine people” hoax is all a proven lie if you read the transcript of Trump’s actual remarks. The Russia hoax. All of the widely reported and discredited “hate crime” hoaxes of which none are true. CNN aired a program called “nation of hate” where they tried to portray white America as a bunch of haters! What a joke!

That dementia Joe Biden is the candidate is itself a hoax. If elected, Biden will step down and the least popular candidate during the Dem.primaries, Kamala, will be President. Their entire strategy is “bait and switch.” Despicable!

Biden WON’T be elected .All of the polling is as wrong as 2016, all to try and manipulate the election and to create unrest when it doesn’t happen. All of the social media and polling companies are manipulating the election right now AGAINST TRUMP. People are not as dumb as the Democrat leadership. They can see what’s happening.

Democrats have now associated themselves now with domestic unrest, much of it orchestrated by shadowy organizations funded by scumbags like Soros. Democrats are now the party of lies, phony causes, domestic unrest and violence. People will not vote for them, nor should they. Welcome to the ash-heap of history!

Republicans weren’t hellbent on removing Obama when he was elected. Republicans can accept election results, but not Democrats!

Have a nice day!

The rumor today is that Romney will reportedly say he’ll support Trump’s 3rd SCOTUS vote. So there you have it! 2020 election Game Over!

Trump will now get his 3rd Supreme Court nominee accepted by McConnell’s Senate–either before Nov. 3 or after. It doesn’t matter when so long as before January.

A SCOTUS 6-3 Trump majority now positions Trump’s SCOTUS majority to stop the mail in ballot vote count in Trump targeted blue and swing states, which would heavily favor Biden.

CNN poll shows 66% of Trump supporters will vote in person on Nov. 3 but only 22% of Biden supporters vote in person. (53% Biden supports to vote by mail). Trump will appear to win on Nov. 3 based on direct in person voting. He’ll declare victory and then move quickly to have Barr and the Justice Dept. stop the counting of mail in ballots in key swing states.

His lawyers are already fanning out and filing motions for injunctions against mail in voting. They will flood swing-blue states mail in ballot vote counting to delay the counting still further. States where Republican governors (and State secretaries of state who manage those states’ vote counting) will meanwhile throw out millions of mail in ballots based on technicalities like signatures failing to dot i’s or cross t’s to ensure Trump ‘red’ states turn in pro-Trump decisions.

Examples of US post office chaos & claims of lost vote ballots, etc. will be used by Trump lawyers to make legal argument that mail in ballots cannot be used to determine the final vote count. Injunctions will be filed to require states to disregard mail ballots. Further delays in mail in ballot counting will occur.

Disputes and legal action by Dems in response will be quickly sent up by Trump federal district judges (appointed by hundreds under McConnell since 2013) to the Supreme Court, now 6-3 in Trump’s pocket. Trump’s Supreme Court will repeat its Florida 2000 decision stopping the vote count–this time counting original votes not a recount. Only swing and blue states will be targeted, not red states already pro-Trump.

Street protests will erupt after Nov. 3 protesting the legal coup d’etat in progress. Trump has already called protestors “insurrectionists” and identified all protests as ‘antifa’ or ‘communist’. His attorney general, Barr, has also already pre-labeled protestors as “treasonous” and traitors who should be forcibly repressed and jailed

The US executive branch since 2002 now has its own executive police force called the Dept. Homeland Security (DHS), with de facto military swat teams who’ve been doing ‘dry runs’ in Seattle, Chicago, Portland and elsewhere. They will be used to suppress protests, aided by pro-Trump local police departments (e.g. New York City, etc.) and perhaps even welcoming right wing radical supportors as provocateurs to attack protestors and thus allow DHS-Police to declare protests riots and directly quash protests.

Contrary to Joe Biden declaring the US military will remove Trump from office if necessary, the US military has said publicly it ‘won’t get involved’.

Democrats will file multiple legal responses to efforts to stop the mail in vote counting that will get delayed in the lower federal court system until Trump is sworn in again in January. Trump’s 6-3 SCOTUS majority will eventually declare them unconstitutional after the fact.

Democrats’ US House of Representatives will once again impeach Trump but it will be ignored once again. Dems will not win Senate as their challengers in Senate will also be stopped from taking office after winning Nov. 3 by mail ballot count cancellation. Mail in ballot vote counting will never be concluded–as in Florida 2000. Americans will never know who actually won the election, as was the case in Florida in 2000.

Trump will gloat and restate what he’s been saying in his recent election speeches: ‘We’ll win in November and after that maybe look at another four years, or even more”!

He’ll then govern mostly by executive order in his second term, ignoring the US House, and moving money around in the US budget to wherever he wants (already doing it) in direct violation of the US Constitution.

In US foreign policy, should Trump win, watch for a total naval blockades launched against Iran and Venezuela after January 2021, if not before as an ‘October Surprise’. In 2021 the US will also engage in massive military buildup in the western pacific to confront and intimidate China.

In 2021 the US economy will relapse and contract after election due to US growing ‘Triple Crisis’ of intensifying political instability and Constitutional crisis, lack of further fiscal stimulus 4th quarter 2020, and possible Covid 19 resurgence.

Trump’s second term 2021 solution will be even more tax cuts for investors, business, and corporations–paid for by cuts in education, social safety net, social security and medicare-medicaid, and tax hikes on middle class.

Failure of the Democrats to have stopped Trump the past four years will likely usher in a basic political party re-alignment in the US as a form of authoritarian government takes hold under Trump quite different from even the limited Democracy form that has itself been slowly atrophying since the early 1990s.

The social condition during the last six months, that some liken socially to a kind of ‘low grade’ war, may well worsen in multiple ways over the coming six months into spring 2021.

Dr. Jack Rasmus
September 22, 2020

Yesterday Supreme Ct. Justice, Ginsburg, died. McConnell & Trump now moving rapidly to replace and fill her position on the US Supreme Court with a 3rd right wing nominee. Democrats immediately mounted a feeble and futile defense, saying that McConnell should not proceed with a nomination before the election. Their argument was based on McConnell’s own argument, back in Feb. 2016, that he used to thwart the nomination of Obama’s Supreme Court candidate, Garland, at that time; McConnell within hours replied that he is expediting the nomination and promises Trump his Senate will have a final decision before Nov. 3 election.

The death of Ginsburg and the quick replacement of another ultra conservative to the SCOTUS has big implications for the upcoming November 3 election: it strengthens Trump’s strategy and his plan to contest the election’s voting by mail process, to declare it fraudulent (in select blue states), and to try to stop the counting of mail ballots and have the Supreme Ct.–now in his pocket with 6-3 majority–cut off the vote counting. That’s just as happened in Florida in 2000 only this time not in one state (Florida) but across multiple states.

Trump’s strategy in recent weeks is becoming increasingly clear: create the public impression that mail in voting is fraudulent and use that claim of fraudulent as the basis for stopping the counting of mail ballots–especially in select ‘blue’ and swing states. This strategy will be supported by polls showing big discrepancies in direct in person voting vs. mail voting on November 3-4:

Recent CNN polls show 53% of Biden supporters expect to vote by mail, while only 21% of Trump supporters will vote by mail. 66% of Trump voters will show up and vote in person. This will mean November 3 voting will show Trump winning by significant margins due to direct voting. Exit polls will appear to confirm Trump in the lead at the time. But as mail in ballots are counted, Trump’s lead will begin to fade in blue and swing states (though not likely in most red states due to widespread voter suppression going on. 800,000 potential voters have been purged in Florida and 190,000 in George, for example). But before the mail in ballots wipe out Trump’s initial lead, he’ll raise the ‘fraudulent’ voting claim, get Attorney General Barr to file injunctions to stop the vote count of mail in ballots, and push for his now 6-3 majority Supreme Court to stop the mail in vote count.

This is Florida’s 2000 election deja vu, except now in multiple states and not just involving voting irregularities in 3 counties in that state.

In 2000 the outcome was the Supreme Court de facto ‘selected’ the president, George W. Bush, with its 5-4 decision by stopping the vote recount in Florida.

In 2020 the Supreme Court will be even more likely do the same–i.e. stop the vote count and ‘select’ Trump’. Except this time it will not even be a vote recount; it will be on the first count of mail in ballot votes.

The 6-3 clear majority now gives Trump even more encouragement to implement this strategy: stop the vote count, direct the decision to the Supreme Court, and keep any resolution out of the US House of Representatives where, constitutionally it belongs.

Democrat leadership will be easily outmaneuvered in the Supreme Court nomination process about to begin, I predict. They think they will get the support of centrist Republicans like Romney, Alexander, and at least another. They won’t. They will be outmaneuvered as well in the post November 3 vote mail-in vote counting. Republican radical right judges in federal district and appeals courts, put in place in the last three years by McConnell’s Senate, will be easily convinced to issue injunctions to stop the mail in ballot counting. The Democrats once again will prove themselves strategically and tactically inept in stopping Trump, as they have the entire previous four years.

One more nail will soon be hammered into the coffin of American Democracy, and this time a very large one.

Since the Republican and Democratic Party conventions in August I have been following and commenting on the unfolding of Trump’s strategy to engineer a legal de facto coup d’etat surrounding the November 3 elections. I have shared these reflections and observations in my almost daily tweets on the revealing of Trump’s strategy–as well as his statements showing his intent to destroy even the remaining remnants, as few as they are, of democratic and civil rights in America today in order to stay in power. Indeed, as he has publicly declared in his campaign speeches, he’s planning not only to win in November but is considering, as he put, “four more years after that, and maybe even four more, we’ll see”. In lock-step, his Attorney General, Bill Barr, has also publicly declared that protestors (including those protesting a future coup no doubt) should be considered “treasonous” and prosecuted under the sedition acts. For Trump too, protestors are “insurrectionists”, which means terrorists and ‘enemy combatants’ under the Patriot Act.

A political crisis, the dimensions of which have no precedent in America’s history, may be just around the corner. It’s negative impact on the present economic Great Recession 2.0 will be no less profound. It will ensure a further economic relapse and the W-Shape trajectory I’ve been predicting, or worse!

The following are my comments on twitter ever since the two parties’ conventions, as it was becoming increasingly clear what Trump, Barr, McConnell, and the others have in mind, and are planning, for the November elections and its aftermath.

(Join me for my future day by day comments on Twitter as Trump’s legal coup d’etat continues to unfold. Sign in to my Twitter account at @drjackrasmus)

COMMENTARIES & REFLECTIONS ON TWITTER

Sep 19
In less than 12 hrs my previous post prediction confirmed: McConnell & Trump both say they’ll move rapidly toward confirming Trump’s 3rd nominee to SCOTUS. McConnell outmaneuvering Dems saying no Committee debate; he’ll move decision immediately to full Senate vote

Sep 18
Democrats will put up another feeble fight against McConnell/Trump’s 3rd nominee to SCOTUS. Dems will argue Mitch shot down Garland in Feb 2016 saying no nomination in election year & should do same in Oct 2020. Mitch’ll laugh and ram through nomination in <30 days

Sep 18
Justice Ginsburg has died. Trump will soon have 6-3 majority on SCOTUS. >55% Dems will vote by mail; only 21% Repubs. Trump will appear winner Nov. 3, but mail-ins reverse that. He’ll claim fraud & ask his 6-3 court to stop count in select blue states, like FL 2000

Sep 16
AG Barr today said protestors should be prosecuted for treason, meaning post Nov. 3 if you protest Trump’s de facto coup d’etat you’ll be prosecuted and thrown in jail. So much for the Bill of Rights in a post November USA world!

Sep 16
CNN poll shows Biden and Trump tied in a dead heat in battleground states–and the debates haven’t even begun yet! If Dems can’t win this election they should close up shop, dissolve, and disappear!

Sep 16
CNN poll shows election day voting (Biden 22% supporters vote, Trump 66%); voting by mail (Biden 53%, Trump 21%)=Trump appears to win Nov 3 but slowly loses as mail ballots counted. Trump declares fraud. Asks SCOTUS to stop mail ballot counting. Florida 2000 deja vu

Sep 15
200+ electoral college votes in red states where intense gerrymandering & forms of voter suppression have been increasing since 2010 Republican-McConnell Senate takeover. Fed courts in red states upholding it, after fast-tracking of right wing court majorities there

Sep 15
Florida McConnell appointed Appeals Court overturns Florida district court ordering 800,000 former felons be allowed to vote. All this following Florida statewide initiative where two-thirds of Florida voters approved right to vote after having served one’s sentence

Sep 15
Trump says Nov. election won’t be known “for months or for years”. So who’ll decide president during “months…years” Sup. Ct. or Congress? Trump Senate will block Congress; Sup.Ct. as in 2000. Biden says US military will remove him. Pentagon says won’t get involved

Sep 14
Trump Plan A (Focus swing states; ensure red states via voter suppression; foment violence to dampen blue states voter turnout. Plan B (use mail crisis & SCOTUS to stay in power). Plan C:”After we win 4 more years we’ll ask for maybe another 4 or so.”(Trump 9-13-20)

Sep 13
Hitler’s path to power: capture Nazi party & make it his personal vehicle; attack liberal parties & leaders blame them for crisis; encourage his thugs to fight & kill socialists in streets; pull off a quasi-legal coup; then jail & kill all opposed. Parallels today?

Sep 13
Roger Stone, Trump election adviser, convicted & pardoned by Trump, today echoed Trump’s naming protestors “insurrectionists”: said if Trump loses he should seize power and jail Clintons, Zuckerberg, etc. Stone represents wide radical neo-fascist wing of bus. elite?

Sep 12
Red states now control Electoral College. #Electors same as # Congress: 535. Raise #US House members>425. US Const. requires more #House reps as popul rises. Last time done? 1913. No need abolish electoral college. Just increase #House reps to end Red state control

Sep 12
Trump just said in public interview if protests occur on November 4 he’ll consider them “insurrections” (his word) and will put them down with force. As I’ve said, police state USA being planned and prepared for. So what will Biden/Dems do? What Gore, Kerry did. Zip

Sep 8
by my count Trump has 220 electoral votes tied up in red states (where voter suppression also rampant). He needs only 270. There are about 90 votes up for grabs in PA, MI, WI, MN, AZ, NV, VA. (Dems’ only dreaming re. winning FL, TX, NC, GA). Much depends on debates

Sep 8
Trump playing 2016 jobs vs. free trade card in swing states again. Even after phony NAFTA 2.0 deal did nothing to return jobs & while 1,800 factories left USA in 2017-18 alone, per EPI study. But Americans have short memories and tend to believe lying politicians.

Sep 8
National polls Biden/Trump totally irrelevant. Only swing states important. CNN’s latest has Trump even with Biden in 18 battleground states as Trump now promising radical measures again to protect jobs from imports. Resonating again in swing states. And Biden’s?

Sep 2
McConnell-Trump strategy clearly to prevent Dems for taking credit for any stimulus before Nov 3. Create econ chaos & blame Dems: less job benefits & more evictions & small bus. closures. Of 30m US small bus. Homebase small bus. survey shows 20% (600k) now closed.

Sep 2
Watching Biden speak is frustrating. I want to kick him in the pants & shout “Speak up Joe. Show some energy. Get angry. You sound like a local priest giving a sermon.” Someone needs to teach Joe the 6 principles of an effective agitational speech.

Aug 31
You can’t campaign giving speeches from a TV studio! Biden better get out to swing states soon & not pull punches proposing real solutions to working class & small bus. folks who are really hurting. Ah, but the Dems corp. wing won’t let him say what needs to be said

Aug 31
Dems convinced Sanders last spring to throw in the towel, after he’d told supporters he’d fight all the way to the convention; he didn’t. He then told them fight for the platform; they were crushed. You can still hear the air of energy deflating from the Dem balloon

Aug 31
Trump has successfully stolen agenda from Dems, slow & tepid in their response. Covid & economy as issues buried. Trump daily criss-crosses the swing states; Biden still on his butt. Biden incapable of showing energy & fighting spirit people want to see in a crisis

Aug 31
For my Nov. 2018 analysis of US midterm 2018 elections & why Dems ‘suburbia’ strategy will fail in a 2020 general election, read my ‘None Dare Call It Victory’ (11-6) and ‘Democrats Suburbia Strategy Disassembled’ (11-17) at my blog,

Aug 30
Dem strategy in 2018 targeted suburban women & professionals. I warned then it would not work in general election in 2020 if repeated. Biden now losing ground in swing states where more aggressive blue collar prgm needed. Dems no longer know how to speak to them

Aug 30
Anyone think car rallies of Trump supporters popping up in big cities everywhere this weekend is just a coincidental spontaneous event? Who’s behind the coordination? Expect these weekend shows to continue through Nov. As predicted, election now moving to the street

Aug 30
Trump’s just an exaggeration of long time Republican election strategy: run on dual racist-crime theme. Remember 1988? Dukakis way ahead in polls, until infamous ‘Willy Horton’ ad by Bush. (Horton: former black criminal released from prison). Horton now: BLM-Antifa

Aug 29
Biden & Dems who say FBI or military will remove Trump from White House & US House has final say are wrong both accounts. US House decides only if Pres-VP ‘incapacitated’. Vote irregularities go to courts. FBI-military will prevaricate if armed supporters defend WH

Aug 29
Trump’s PLAN B (cont.): 5) get US Sup. Ct to decide vote (keep it out of US House); 6) declare national emergency & refuse to leave White House; 7) call on supporters to Washington to mass counter-demonstrate; 8) have armed members defend White House perimeter;

Aug 29
Trump’s PLAN B: 1) Exacerbate econ & political crises pre 11-3; 2) delegitimize the election process outcome (fraud, stolen, post office, etc); 3) court challenge mail ballots in key blue states pre 11-3; 4) stop or slow vote count in blue states (not red) post 11-3

Aug 28
Trump PLAN A: 1) Punish Blue states economically & politically to reduce turnout 2) Keep Red states safe by voter suppression 3) Campaign in person mostly in 8 swing states 4) Label Biden as Sanders’ puppet 5) Appeal to his white European base fears of the ‘Others’

Aug 27
#RepublicanConvention For Kudlow-Trump prediction of Vshape recovery by November election, given -5% and -31.7% collapse of US GDP in first half 2020 US economy will have to grow by +22% next four months! Haha. Wanna buy a bridge? Kudlow has one to sell if you want to believe him

Aug 27
#RepublicConvention Source of Kudlow’s ‘boom in housing’: 1. pent up demand from spring shelter in place 2. wealthy urban apartment, town-home, condo owners fleeing cities to suburbs/exurbs. Builders rushing to build more houses there. Result: major price deflation in city RE now
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Aug 26
#RepublicanConvention Trump claims economy was great until Covid. Yeah? 2019=6 mo. manufacturing recession, 9 mos. contraction of bus. investment, stagnant real wages & doubling of credit card defaults, falling exports due to China trade war. But dividends-buybacks record $1.2T.

Aug 24
Trump has been buying farm sector votes with massive subsidies of taxpayer money. In 2018-19 during China trade war he gave $29B in direct subsidies. In March 2020 Cares Act gave another $19B. Mostly to big agribusiness buddies, not family farmers now going under.

Aug 24
Trump says farmers doing great. But Wall St. Journal headline today declared: ‘US Farmers Are Suffering’ (p. B9): “Bankruptcies are high in farm country” mostly “small family farms” & “Farm loan payments are expected to fall precipitously in the next three months”.

Aug 22
Most conspiracies are purposely create by smart people, with the objective of diverting attention from realities like 80m Americans without affordable health care, 45m still jobless, 10m+ small bus. closing, 20m+ being evicted, millions hungry, 310m dead by Dec.

Aug 22
Being ignorant is excusable; just means someone’s keeping the facts from you. Ditto gullible; means you’re too trusting of answers from those in authority. But stupid? Means one can’t perform simple logical thinking to come to conclusions of their own. (30 million?)

Aug 22
The daddy of all conspiracies now emerging from the right wing blogosphere: ‘The Nov. 3 election will be a catastrophe because an asteroid is coming to earth on that same date’. Def. of conspiracy theory: an easy answer for folks incapable of thinking for themselves

Aug 22
US House to pass $25B for US postal office today. Trump says he’ll veto. McConnell says won’t take it up in Senate. USPS General, DeJoy, tells Congress he’ll restore 600 mail sorters removed from USPS offices. But workers receive letter they can’t restore them

Aug 20
Dems are already trying to lower expectations of stimulus if they win Nov 3. Biden’s transition team head, Kaufman, today says ‘pantry will be bare’ and ‘deficits large’. Dems will be ‘limited’ in what they can do. (Obama 2009 economic ‘minimalism’ all over again).

Aug 20
Both Trump & Biden should chew on this: “Harris Poll conducted days before the convention found that 59% of 18 to 39 year olds said they would rather live in a socialist country than a capitalist one, up 9 percentage points since last year”(Fin. Times, Aug.20,p.16)

Aug 18
Dems got Sanders to bail out of race early last spring (after he promised to fight all the way to the convention), then screwed his followers on party platform last week. Dem leaders now clear to trot out Republicans for Biden at convention. ‘Deja vu all over again.

Aug 18
Big reason Hillary lost 2016: failure to campaign in swing states. Nat’l polls irrelevant. Only 8 swing states matter. Trump already campaigning hard there. Will continue. So Where’s Biden-Harris in swing states? Will they campaign there? Or will Dems repeat 2016?

Aug 14
What’s behind Trump’s Israel-UAE agt.? More than meets the eye. As deal was announced, US seized 4 Iran ships on way to Venezuela. IS Israel-UAE part of US plan to prepare region US allies for ‘October Surprise’ re. US policy toward Iran? Is US-Iran conflict coming?

Jul 30
What if 72 hrs before Nov. 3 Trump tells his supporters to not vote & invokes emergency powers act to halt the election? Constitution says he can’t change the date. So what. How will Dems stop him? Trump has Barr, DHS troops + support of most mid-level officer corps

Jul 26
Even if Biden wins 6 key swing states, the electoral college vote will still be close. If close, Trump will cry fraud & refuse to leave, plunging USA into deep Const. Crisis. Why he’ll refuse to leave? If he loses, knows he’ll be indicted on tax fraud and convicted

Jul 19
Trump’s Plan B? Create street chaos as DHS troops provoke fights w. antifa/BLM/protestors; Covid deaths spike & voters stay home; polling stations close w/o older folks to run; challenge & delay mail in ballot count; Trump rejects results 11-4 & asks Sup.Ct. decide

Listen to three follow on radio interviews this past week to my recent publication, “America’s Current Jobs ‘Great Depression'” where discussion goes in depth to discuss the implications of the media’s downplaying of current unemployment and the emerging 2nd wave of layoffs by big corporations that haven’t been directly impacted, in many cases, by the Covid virus.

KGO RADIO Interview

Sept. 14, 2020

https://omny.fm/shows/the-pat-thurston-show/september-14-2020-america-s-current-jobs-great-dep

CRITICAL HOUR RADIO

Interview Sept. 11, 2020

Critical_Hour_554_Seg_2.mp3

BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY RADIO

Interview Sept. 9, 2020
https://www.spreaker.com/user/radiosputnik/economist-dour-unemployment-numbers-unde

Two well-known and highly respected mainstream economists, Carmen Reinhart, a chief economist for the World Bank, and Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for Morgan Stanley bank, have recently published an article in the widely read capitalist source, Foreign Affairs, entitled ‘The Pandemic Depression’. Arguing primarily from a global perspective, the economists have concluded the US economy as of the 3rd quarter 2020 is not merely now experiencing a ‘great recession’ but now qualifies as another Great Depression.

There is another perspective, however, from which to also argue the US economy is in a bona fide Great Depression. It is from the perspective of the US Labor Market. For as of the late 3rd quarter 2020 the US economy suffers from an unemployment rate of no less than 25%–i.e. the same rate during the worst years and quarters of 1932-33, the depths of the 1930s Great Depression. Yet what we hear from the media and politicians of both wings of the Corporate Party of America—aka the Republicans and Democrats—is that unemployment is only 8.4%! That’s barely one-third of 25%.

Republicans and Trump have used the low-balled number of 8.4% as the main excuse to prevent the passage by Congress of any further economic stimulus. The Democrats have voiced no effective rebuttal since they too have accepted the 8.4%. So what is it? 8.4% and not even a great recession any longer? Or 25% and the possibility the ranks of unemployed are about to grow even further?
What follows is a debunking of the 8.4% unemployment rate and a quantitative explanation why that rate is 25%–as well as a statement of the forces that will likely result in an even further deterioration in the unemployment rate in the 2020-21 period ahead.

(25% & 40 Million Still Unemployed)

After the massive job implosion last spring, a weak rebound in jobs has occurred as the economy reopened over the early summer. But that jobs rebound has shown clear signs of faltering by late July and has clearly deteriorated by late August as unemployment claims have risen in recent weeks. Even more ominous, as that has near term condition of jobs has worsened, parallel indications show the emergence of a second, more permanent phase of job loss on the horizon.
Since early March 2020, more than 55m workers have filed for, and received, unemployment insurance benefits.

According to official government data, as of the end of August, 29.5 million US workers were still getting benefits. That 29.5m reflects 18.4% workers clearly unemployed. But it’s also a subset of the total jobless, since millions haven’t been able to get benefits. So the actual number of jobless as of labor day 2020 is north of 29.5m and 18.4% Nevertheless, the statistic we hear is 8.4% unemployment rate and 13.4 million unemployed. What gives?

Some of the 55 million who received benefits at some point over the course of the last six months of the pandemic began returning to work starting in May. The number returning grew in June, but then began slowing once again in July and August as the rebound in jobs began to falter in July-August.

Others of the 55 million have simply exhausted their benefits. Many are still unemployed but no longer part of the 29.5 million that remain on benefits.
In addition, millions more workers since March have entered the labor force for the first time but they too have not been eligible to receive benefits due to lack of prior work history as first time job seekers—which precludes them from receiving unemployment benefits. Like those having exhausted their benefits, they too are unemployed but not part of the 29.5m still getting benefits at the end of August.

Joining the ranks of those unemployed but not receiving benefits are the millions who never got benefits because they simply gave up looking for work for various reasons and dropped out of the labor force—which puts them in a category in which, according to US labor department methodology, they aren’t counted as unemployed. They may be out of work, but given the oxymoronic way the US defines unemployed they aren’t considered unemployed for purposes of calculating the unemployment rate!

Finally, there are the additional millions more who never were able to get benefits since March even though they tried, due to various bureaucratic reasons.
Whether having exhausted their benefits, or first time entrants to the labor force not eligible for benefits, or whether they’ve dropped out of the labor force, or were denied benefits for bureaucratic reasons—all these groups are nonetheless part of the unemployed, even though they are not counted among the 29.5m still getting unemployment benefits.

In short, the 55m who got benefits at some point since March, and the 29.5m who are still getting them, are in both cases just a subset of a much larger number of jobless. There are millions more unemployed who never got on the unemployment benefits rolls since March and still not able to get benefits. There’s at least 10-15 million more jobless but without benefits. That means an unemployment rate, at minimum, of 25%–not the 8.4% peddled by the media apologists for Wall St. and the politicians of the Corporate Party of America (aka Trumpublicans and Democrat wings of that party).

Last April 2020 perhaps as much as 50% of the total US labor force of 160 million workers was jobless for approximately two months. As of today, Labor Day 2020, at minimum a fourth, or 25%, still remains so.

That 25% is about the same jobless rate as occurred during the worst years of the 1930s Great Depression, 1932-33!

Here’s why it’s 25% at minimum today, Labor Day, and quite possibly even more:

(Dissecting the Government’s Low-Ball U-3/8.4% Unemployment Rate)

Despite an actual 25% unemployment rate (i.e. 40 million still jobless) what we hear from the media and politicians is that the unemployment rate is only 8.4%. And thus the total unemployed is only 13.4 million. (When 8.4% is calculated on the 160 million total US labor force, the number unemployed comes to 13.4 million).

The official government statistic of 8.4% jobless is repeated ad nauseam in the media. It’s then picked up by politicians, commentators, and even progressives who should know better and parroted back to the public. But 8.4% is nonsense. A purposely low-balled, cherry-picked number for public consumption. Here’s why:
To begin with, the 8.4% is the government’s official U-3 unemployment rate. The problem with U-3, however, is that it represents only full time workers who became unemployed. But there are at least 50 million workers in the US economy who are not ‘full time’, but part time, discouraged and what the government calls the ‘missing labor force’. The government adds these groups to its U-3 and 8.4%. That raises the unemployment rate in August to 14.2%–not 8.4%. And that translates to a total unemployed of 22.7 million—not 13.4 million.

The 14.2%/22.7 million numbers are carefully avoided in media reporting. One almost never hears the 14.2% and virtually always only the 8.4%, regardless that both are official government statistics.

But even that 14.2%/22.7m is grossly under-estimating the total unemployed. Remember that other government statistic, i.e. those receiving unemployment benefits? Workers receiving benefits as of late August was 29.5 million. And that represents a 18.4% jobless rate. Obviously, if a worker is getting benefits, he/she must be unemployed, right? But you’ll hear 29.5 million and 18.4% in the media even less than the 14.2% and 22.7 million.

In the case of the 29.5 million, moreover, we have another example of ‘low-balling’ and cherry-picking a statistic –not unlike cherry-picking the U-3 stat instead of the U-6. The media reports the number of workers getting benefits at only 16 or 17 million, not 29.5 million!

But here’s what they don’t explain when citing only 16-17 million getting benefits: That number accounts only for workers receiving unemployment benefits under the traditional State Unemployment Benefits system. The 16-17 million excludes independent contract workers, gig, freelance, and others getting benefits under the supplemental Pandemic Unemployment Insurance (PUC) program created last March as part of the Cares Act. In other words, there’s two unemployment benefits systems and the media typically chooses to report only the one when indicating workers getting benefits. There’s the traditional State Unemployment Benefits system and the new Supplemental PUC system that for the first time ever has provided benefits for the 50m non-traditional workers who were before March never eligible for benefits but are now and will continue to be eligible at least through December 2020 when that PUC system expires. Once again, it’s media cherry-picking and number low-balling time.

The State system and the PUC system together comprise the 29.5 million workers still getting unemployment benefits. 29.5m receiving benefits is certainly more than 22.7m (U-6) and even more so than 13.4m. It’s not that the government job statistics consciously lie (although in some cases they come quite close). It’s just that the government produces low ball numbers for the media to pick up, which they do and pound away at. And then commentators, politicians, business sources play their role of spreading the low ball numbers and conveniently ignoring other data.

How then did the US economy get to 29.5 million and 18.4%? Here’s the trajectory: In April more than 6 million workers filed for benefits every week for two weeks, followed by 3-5 million more for several more weeks thereafter! The weekly new benefits filing rate declined as the economy began to reopen in May. However, after May new State unemployment benefit claims still averaged 1 to 2 million every week through July; In addition, the number of PUC initial benefit claims per week also exceeded 1 million a week, every week, through July as well.

The combined totals of the two programs—State and PUC— thus never fell below 2 million initial filings a week throughout the period of the reopening of the economy, from May through July. It has also remained a combined more than 1.5m/week throughout August. That’s 6 million new unemployment filing claims—i.e. 6 million newly unemployed—in just the last month of August. Bringing the total on unemployment benefits to the 29.5 million.

But wait! The 29.5m represents only unemployed workers who were able to get benefits. There’s many more workers who became jobless but were unable to successfully get benefits; or who gave up even trying in the first place and simply dropped out of the labor force altogether. Who are they? And how great are their numbers?

Their numbers are well north of even the 29.5 million and 18.4% unemployment rate. The true total jobless includes their numbers plus the 29.5 million.

For the 29.5m receiving benefits as of Labor Day 2020 excludes those jobless who were unable to get benefits in the first place, who filed unsuccessfully for benefits, who got lost in the bureaucratic process of filing and never got benefits, or who just couldn’t figure out how to file and were not helped and gave up. The 29.5m also represents those having exhausted benefits during the last six months. And those who chose not to file even though unemployed. Finally, the 29.5m excludes new entrants to the labor force over the past six months who weren’t eligible for benefits but haven’t been able nonetheless to find work given the collapse of the economy! All these categories of jobless workers represent the unemployed as much as those receiving benefits include the obviously unemployed. So the number of jobless is actually much higher than even 29.5 million. The 29.5m is therefore just a subset of the true total unemployed.
So how many more are jobless but not getting benefits as of Labor Day 2020?

(Estimating the Actual Jobless—With & Without Benefits)

You won’t get an accurate number from the government of the total unemployed who didn’t get benefits but have been, and remain, nonetheless jobless since February 2020.

However, private research surveys do give us an idea. MarketWatch, a business research and media company, published an interesting feature story in Fidelity.com this past week, based on its survey of the Philadephia/Mid-Atlantic region of the economy. That case example survey provides a reasonable estimate of the magnitude of those jobless since March 2020 but not among the 29.5m that succeeded in obtaining unemployment benefits.

Of the total number of workers in the Philadelphia, Mid-Atlantic US region who lost their jobs since February, MarketWatch reports that only 87% actually filed successfully for benefits. And of that 87%, only 65% who bothered to file actually ended up getting benefits. That means only 52%, or roughly half of the unemployed in the Philadelphia area, actually got unemployment benefits. The other 48% were just as much out of work, but without benefits.

If Philadelphia represents a microcosm and relatively accurate sample of the entire US economy labor market, simple extrapolation means that the 55 million who successfully got benefits since March 2020 may represent barely half of the total of those who have been unemployed since March!

That means the 29.5 million still getting benefits may represent barely half of all those still unemployed. There may therefore be between 40 and 50 million workers in America still jobless—those still getting benefits (the 29.5m) and those without benefits (10m to 20m).

Thus, the oft-reported official US numbers of 8.4% unemployment rate and 13.4 million total out of work is dwarfed not only by the government’s own alternative U-6 data, as well as by its own data showing 29.5 million jobless getting benefits, but also by the fact the total jobless without benefits may be nearly as large as those with benefits.

Assuming the low-end estimate of 10 million still jobless but without benefits, and adding that to the government data that shows 29.5 million still on benefits, a total jobless of at least 40 million is the result. And that’s the low end assumption. It may be well over 40 million as of end of August 2020.

40 million is 25% of the labor force. And it’s far greater than the 8.4% and 13.4 million that the media and politicians keep drumming into our ears. What the media and politicians are telling us is only one-third of the total unemployed!
Corroborating this estimate of at least 25% unemployed today is yet another government statistic called the labor force participation rate, or LFPR. It represents workers who have dropped out of the labor force altogether. It’s in addition to the 29.5m and 18.4% rate since, by government guidelines and definitions, those who drop out of the labor force cannot receive benefits.

(Labor Force Participation Rate Suggests 5.5 Million Dropped Out)

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is the percent of working age Americans who have left the Labor Force. They are neither working nor actively looking for work. But they are jobless nonetheless and should be considered among the unemployed. The LFPR was 63.4% of the 164.5 million civilian labor force in February 2020. By August the LFPR dropped to 61.7% out of a 160 million labor force. The difference translates into approximately 5.5 million workers who dropped out of the labor force since February 2020. Having dropped out they are not actively looking for work and therefore not considered unemployed by the government for purposes of calculating unemployment rates. Nor are they eligible to receive benefits since, as drop outs, they are not actively looking for work. However they are nevertheless unemployed and their 5.5 million are additional to the 13.4 million U-3 and 22.7 million U-6 unemployed or the 29.5 million getting benefits. They are among the ‘other’ 10-20 million jobless but not counted by the U-3/U-6 or included in those receiving benefits. Their number strongly corroborates that there are many millions more unemployed—not getting benefits or ignored by the government’s official monthly jobless numbers.

Let’s look at the latest of those government monthly employment numbers. Once again what appears is a fudging and manipulation of the numbers in yet other ways as well.

(August 2020 Government Employment Report)

The first thing to know about the August Employment Report is that it isn’t for the month of August. It is only for the first two weeks of the month (and the last two weeks of July). The data cuts off around the 12th of the month. So what we’re looking at in a ‘August’ report is really July 13 to August 12 jobs data—i.e. before unemployment claims began to rise again in late August.

Second, it’s important to understand that the August jobs numbers are not the actual number of jobs created July 13-August 12. It is not the raw data of actual jobs created or lost that’s reported—for August or for any month in the Labor Dept jobs reports.

The government takes the actual raw data and performs various statistical operations on that raw jobs data and reports that adjusted statistic as the actual number of jobs, even though it isn’t. But that’s what all statistics are—an operation and adjustment on the actual raw data. Moreover, the August raw data itself may be over-stated as well, not just altered by the statistical operation(s).

Raw (actual) jobs data comes from several sources: Large businesses report to the government changes in employment, layoffs, hires, etc. (called the Establishment Survey) The government also surveys a sample of households monthly (called the Population Survey). But there’s a third, more questionable source, based on data from the creation and destruction of small businesses, called the (net) New Business Development survey (NBD). That NBD data, however, represents businesses destroyed or created 6 to 9 months before the month in question—i.e. in this case August. So we get six to nine month old data integrated with current data from the Establishment and Population surveys. Mixing such older data with more recent is a questionable statistical practice. It means adding positive net new business development pre-March and Covid, in January-February, to current jobs data. That has the effect of dampening the actual numbers of August jobs unemployment. That is, it adds to and over-estimates the number of jobs created in August. If net business development for July were used—not January/February—it would mean integrating massive small business destruction that has occurred under Covid since March. That would have the opposite effect: it would dampen job creation numbers in August and increase unemployment numbers.

That’s just one example how ‘statistical operations’ on data can serve to exaggerate job growth and under-estimate unemployment.

Another sometimes questionable statistical operation is called the Seasonality adjustment. The seasonality statistical adjustment in August reduced the number of new filings for unemployment benefits in just the last week of August by 130,000. The government then reported a ‘seasonally adjusted’ 881,000 new unemployment claims for the week ending August 29, when the actual number was 1,011,000.

Similarly, in August there were 9,118,000 reported as unemployed in August when the actual data, not seasonally adjusted, for August showed 9,286,000 actually unemployed—i.e. a difference of 168,000. Put another way, there were 168,000 more jobless in actuality than reported as unemployed. 168,000 were artificially reduced from the unemployed ranks due to statistical operations involving just seasonality alone!

The statistical models assume more return to work at the end of summer than, say for instance, at the end of spring. But the point is these models are based on assumptions developed in normal times under normal conditions. Since Covid neither times or conditions are ‘normal’. Yet the government continues to use the same assumptions, models, and statistical operations to change the actual data, the actual number of employed and unemployed, to the statistical representations of the actual numbers!

The latest August official Labor Dept. job data report says 1.37m new jobs were created. This is the statistic. But the actual data, for above reasons, is far fewer new jobs and far more unemployed.

The August Report is biased in yet another way. It purports to show the condition of the US private sector economy. But 238,000 new US census workers were hired in August who’ll be gone by October. Take away the seasonality adjustment of 168,000 jobs and the 238,000 very temporary government Census workers, and the private sector actual job gain in August was roughly 964,000 not 1.37m. Even without the deduction of seasonality, the private job report company, ADP, often cited as a check on government job reports, reported only 428,000 net jobs growth in August—i.e. less than half of the government’s August jobs report.

1.37m new jobs reported, minus the 168,000 seasonal upward adjustment and minus the 238,000 Census workers, and the difference is 964,000 actual net private sector jobs created in August, or about half a million fewer than in July.

Even accepting the government’s own inflated monthly jobs numbers, the rate of monthly job growth has been slowing rapidly since May 2020: In May 3.4 million new jobs were reported as created. In June, as the economy reopened virtually everywhere, 4.7 million new jobs. But in July, as the economic rebound began to fade, only 1.5 million, and now as of August 12, only 1.37m. In short, even questionable statistical operations cannot total cover up the obvious downward trend.

Perhaps a better indicator of this downward trend post-August 12, is the more than 4 million workers who have newly filed for unemployment benefits the last three weeks, and undoubtedly hundreds of thousands more were also newly jobless but who were not able to get benefits or just dropped out of the labor force giving up searching for a job in today’s deeply depressed labor market.
And yet we read and hear from the media and politicians that the job market is healing rapidly and job recovery is accelerating—even as data show it is in fact deteriorating. We hear unemployment is declining fast when in fact it has begun to rise once again.

(Summing Up Jobs: March Through August 2020)

To sum up the bigger true picture of jobless during the first six months of the Covid era:

• 55 million filed for benefits, state and PUC, since last February, out of 160m labor force
• Tens of millions more failed to file or filed unsuccessfully and didn’t get benefits
• 29+ million are still getting benefits as of September Labor Day 2020
• 10-20 million still unemployed but not getting benefits as of Labor Day 2020
• 1.5 million are continuing to file first time for benefits weekly as of early September
• 8.4%/13.4m official U-3 jobless rate is the preferred ‘cherry picked’ media number
• 14.2%/22.7m is government’s alternative data (U-6) yet ignored by media & politicians
• 13.4 or 22.7m still falls far short of the 29.5m/18.4% actually still getting benefits
• At least 5.5m dropped out of labor force the past 6 mo. but not considered unemployed
• The actual unemployment rate is 25% and 40 million are still jobless, at minimum
• Even government monthly stats show a sharp slowing of new jobs added each month
As bad as the picture looks for Phase 1 (March-to Labor Day 2020) of the current crisis, future prospects for jobs for American workers after Labor Day 2020 appear even bleaker.

(2nd Wave of Restructuring & Permanent Job Loss)

The Covid virus did not cause the current economic crisis—i.e. the 2nd Great Recession. It did precipitate and accelerate and deepen that crisis, however. The US economy was weakening steadily throughout 2019, with the important sectors of business investment and manufacturing actually contracting throughout the year. Should the virus therefore disappear overnight, the deep wounds to the US economy will remain. Many of the 40 million furloughed starting in March and still jobless will not soon be recalled to their prior work—if at all. Entire industries like travel, entertainment, food & lodging, and others will not return to the ‘old normal’ of pre-Covid. A new normal will occur, but it will be one based on a much reduced output in various industries and companies and therefore employment.

Many major corporations have already announced thousands—and in some cases tens of thousands—of permanent layoffs that will take effect in the coming months. These layoffs will be permanent. They represent the leading edge of a coming second wave of job loss.

Industries deepest affected by the growing permanent restructuring and downsizing include Airlines, surface transportation, cruise lines, resorts and hotels, casinos, malls and retail services, education services, local food services, and many sectors of manufacturing that support all these industries with products and maintenance services. This is a large swath of the US economy, in both GDP and employment terms. A clearer picture of which industries, and how deeply impacted, will be clearer after September 30 when the government publishes its quarterly industry-specific statistics for the second quarter 2020.

In the meantime, announcements of thousands of planned layoffs are being announced weekly by United, American, and other airlines; by Boeing and other aerospace suppliers; by big box mall-based retail companies like JC Penneys, Kohls, Nieman Marcus and others; Movie Theater chains AMC and Cinemark; oil drilling and fracking companies; hospitals’ non-Covid related services health workers; beverage suppliers to hotels and restaurants like Coca Cola—to mention just those making front business page news in recent weeks. Tech companies are all restructuring despite healthy profits performance, shifting to remote employment on a major scale that reduces employment costs via layoffs. They will require therefore fewer building support and operations employees. Many other businesses may also shift to remote activity, with the result that urban office buildings will become less employment populated and much of the local city support services for the office building sector will dramatically downsize in employment as well.

The Federal Reserve Bank’s latest ‘Beige Book’ summary of the US economy warned that millions of workers temporarily furloughed since March may have been permanently laid off by August and more may become so. This shift of temporary laid off to permanent layoff status is corroborated by a survey that showed 3.4 million workers believe they won’t be recalled because their companies have either permanently closed or said they planned to close.

Added to this leading edge of the next wave of layoffs due to business restructuring and downsizing is the likelihood of millions more public sector state and local government layoffs. More than a million government workers have been already laid off since March. Budget and deficit problems accelerating rapidly for state and local governments due to the Covid pandemic (i.e. more expenses amidst collapsing tax revenues) will result in still more public employee layoffs. It’s been estimated these governments will need between $500 billion and $940 billion in bailout rescue in a new stimulus bill from Congress to avoid the mass layoffs. However, it appears extremely unlikely they’ll get much, if anything, in a next Congressional stimulus bill in 2020. Layoffs are therefore inevitable and in some of the larger states and cities they will be significant and forthcoming before 2020 year end.

Small business failures and permanent closures are already rising significantly. As small businesses close, jobs associated with them will disappear. And the numbers could easily amount in the millions by the end of 2021.

There are roughly 30 million small businesses in the US economy. Millions of those temporarily closed since March will fail to reopen. And the worse may be yet to come. The National Federation of Independent Businesses, an industry trade group for small business, forecasts 21% will likely fail within another six months. That’s one-fifth of the 30 million or about 6 million. Even if a high end estimate, the number is still unprecedented. At the low end is the US Census ‘Business Pulse’ survey that predicts a 5% small business job loss. That’s 1.5 million closures. Whether 6 or 1.5 million, it’s a large number with an even larger number of employees thrown out of work as the businesses close in coming months.

Other forces driving a second wave of layoffs are more difficult to estimate but no less likely. Among them include the Covid related requirement that K-12 schools implement home remote school education services. Many working class households are two-parent wage earners. They lack resources to pay for babysitters or nannies. Those with K-6 year old children in particular will be forced to have one parent quit and stay at home to ensure home schooling. These ‘quits’ will not show up as unemployed, since the parent is ‘out of work’ but not actively ‘looking for work’. They will show up as labor force drop outs. But they will be unemployed nonetheless! It’s uncertain how wide spread the remote K-8 education services will be this fall, or how long it will last. One recent estimate, however, by Brevan Howard Asset Management to its investors, concluded no fewer than 4.3 million US workers could stay home given lack of child care arrangements. A resurgence of Covid may mean millions more may have to quit their jobs and choose unemployment in order to provide their young children education via remote learning.

Another development that for now is difficult to estimate as well is the impact on employment of the lack of a necessary fiscal stimulus for households. The elimination of the $600 supplement pandemic unemployment benefit at the end of July has resulted in a reduction of no less than $65 billion in consumption spending per month starting this past August. Evictions and mortgage foreclosures will also have a negative impact on consumer household spending, which is nearly 70% of the economy and US GDP. Already the loss of the $600 benefit, combined with rising evictions, is having a major effect on consumer confidence which in August began falling again sharply. This could be exacerbated by an inadequate stimulus bill in September. Reduced working class benefits and household incomes will have an impact on consumer demand for products and services in the economy across the board, affecting nearly all sectors of businesses. And as that demand drops, it will almost certainly lead in turn to less consumer spending and in turn to more layoffs.

The preceding five forces—i.e. large corporate restructurings and permanent downsizing, a sharp rise in public sector layoffs, unprecedented business closures, remote schooling requirements of two working parent families, and general demand reduction due to inadequate next stimulus—all translate into a second wave of layoffs now emerging.

These longer term job reduction forces mean the recent tepid rebound in jobs during May-July will likely give way to a relapse in the US labor markets in coming months and a rise in unemployment. The trend may already be appearing as of late August as first time claims for unemployment benefits have begun to rise once again.

And then there are still the ‘known unknowns’ that could exacerbate conditions further: the increasingly likelihood of a historic political crisis surrounding the November 3 elections. That will breed massive uncertainty and potentially an even worse economic crisis and associated layoffs. Or the Covid virus could resurge significantly once again as winter sets in, as many fear will happen. That too will lead to more shutdowns and furloughing of jobs once again. Even further down the road is the 2021 ‘black swan’ event of another financial crisis, as businesses, households, and local governments begin to default on their debts and precipitate another financial crisis similar to 2008-09.

Jack Rasmus
September 8, 2020

For my analysis of today’s August 2020 job numbers, plus Jobs since March and forecast of second wave of unemployment coming–as well as the condition of American Labor this Labor Day 2020–listen to my Alternative Visions radio show podcast today, 9-4-20

TO LISTEN GO TO

:

https://alternativevisions.podbean.com/e/alternative-visions-labor-day-in-the-era-of-covid/