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Central banks are lowering interest rates worldwide, in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve soon to do so, as the global economy continues to weaken.

Both the IMF and World Bank have this past week cut their estimates of economic growth… again. Global oil prices continue to decline (as I predicted earlier this year after prices rose following last year’s 40% collapse). US and Europe factory orders and output are flat. Manufacturing globally is stagnating. (Watch for US jobs, a lagging indicator, likely to soon retreat as well). Emerging market economies are slipping into recession, one by one. Advanced economies like UK and Australia now beginning to contract. Bond prices worldwide are booming as bond (long term) rates fall everywhere due to weakening global economies, dragging down short term rates, as the Fed prepares to ‘catch up’ by cutting its own benchmark rate now lagging behind the real economy.

Can the Fed and other central banks boost the sagging US and global economy? Can European central banks even try–with more than $10 trillion in negative interest rates already, with trillions of dollar equivalent in non-performing bank loans(NPLs)? With trillions $ more in bad bank debt and NPLs in Japan, India and China?

Why the Fed’s official 2% inflation target is, and has always been, a phony target and number. And subsidizing capital markets and incomes always its true target. Why monetary policy and central banks are at the end of their fraying ropes and their imminent rate cutting moves will prove ineffective.

For my discussion of these and related questions about the ineffectiveness of monetary policy approaches to the economy (including the emerging popular notion of modern monetary theory–i.e. ‘QE turned on its head’–listen to my 2-part hour long interview with Radio4All on my 2017 book, ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes: Monetary Policy and the Coming Depression’.

    GO TO: (for part 1 of the interview)

http://www.radio4all.net/index.php/program/102429

    GO TO: (for part 2 of the interview)

http://www.radio4all.net/index.php/program/102732

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In a recent radio interview on May 31, 2019 I was queried by Global Research interviewer, Michael Welch, on a number of topics, including the US-China trade war’s longer term meaning.

Here’s my segment of the interview. Download the MP3 podcast below.

(Go to 7:30 minutes into the interview and listen up to 29:30)

http://www.radio4all.net/files/scottprice666@hotmail.com/4319-1-GRNH_262_may_31_2019_.mp3

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For succinct commentary and predictions on key developments in the US and global economy during the recent months of April-May, check out my following tweets. (Join me at @drjackrasmus to receive my future tweets as posted)

May 29
#yieldcurve The 10 mo. Treasury bond is now priced below that of the 3 mo. Treasury bill, a degree of inversion not seen since 2007; and an inversion that has predicted every recession since 1955. My prediction of US recession by late 2019 comes closer.

May 28
#Japan While Europe’s economy is now slowing rapidly approaching stagnation, and US weakening noticeably, don’t forget 3rd largest economy, Japan, where both consumer spending & Bus. investment contracted 1Q19. As $US declines, Yen will rise, deepening Japan recession’s recession

May 25
#USWages Mckinsey Consultants report on the decline of US Labor’s share of income (e.g. income inequality) shows in 2000 Labor’s share national income=63.3%. In 2016=56.7%. That’s -6.6% and $1.3 trillion/yr. less every year (2017 national income=$19.9T). Capital incomes up $1.3T)

May 25
#Trumptaxcuts Institute on Taxation & Economic Policy’s just issued report shows following companies not only paid NO TAXES last year but got refund checks from the IRS: Amazon, Delta, Chevron, GM, Duke, IBM, Prudential, Jetblue, Gannett, & others. Rebate total $79 billion

May 24
#Fed Fed’s annual household financial survey yesterday showed 40% (130m + households) don’t have $400 for emergencies (i.e neither cash, savings or credit cards). That’s >50 million. (27% have to borrow from friends or sell personal assets; 13% can’t even do that).

May 23
#TaxReform New report released by Bloomberg Business Week (latest issue) shows the richest 0.1% have stuffed $7.6 trillion offshore to avoid taxes. Meanwhile, F500 corps gave US shareholders in 2018 another $1.4 trillion in buybacks & dividends. 2019 running at $1.5T.

May 21
#USeconomy My prior posts showed US GDP basics very weak in 1Q: consumer spending up only 1.2%. Then April ’19 retail sales -0.5%. Now 1Q capital spending data in: only up 3% (vs. 20% year ago). Fixed investment only 2.7% vs. 4Q18 5.4%. All this before China trade breakdown.

May 21
#Fed Chicago Fed index of national econ April activity turns negative more than analysts’ worst forecast. Prior months also revised down & neg. 3 mo. ave. Feb-March also neg. All this before Trump trade war escalation. My forecast: no China trade deal at June G20 mtg either.

May 5
#Chinatrade China-US trade ‘make or break’ this week. Trump follows hardline anti-China advisers & threatens higher tariffs before final mtg this week. Hardliners raise impossible demand China share tech with US to scuttle deal. US Neocons now running US trade & foreign policy

May 4
#USjobsReport For my deeper analysis of the april 2019 just released US jobs report, and why the labor market is much weaker than the unemployment and jobs creation numbers suggest, go to my blog at (link: http://jackrasmus.com) jackrasmus.com and to my April 3 radio show link at the end of the blog

May 1
#Negativerates ECB neg. rate now -0.4%; ECB to lower further to follow Fed. Total Neg. EU debt rose from$6.2 trillion to$10.1 in just last 12 months. ECB neg. rates supposed to = more bank lending; Instead, lending falling & money flowing to US. EU banks are locus of next crisis?

May 1
#Fed meets today. Trump & Kudlow call for 1% point rate cut in Fed funds rate, as global economy slows driving capital flows from EU, EMEs, JP to US & driving up US$. Argentine Peso, Turkey Lira & Euro down 10%-20% so far 2019. US MNCs offshore profits (GM,GE,etc) taking big hits

Apr 26
#GDP 1st Qtr US GDP driven by temporary excess inventories & import effects. 80% of economy–bus. investment + consumption–grow only at 2.7% (structures & equipment flat) and 1.2%. With Trump tax cut effects now over, Trump to bet on China trade deal & Fed rate cuts for 2019-20

Apr 20
#Fed As a sign of more Fed capitulation to political pressure by Trump & investors, Fed district presidents & vice-chair (Evans, Kaplan, Clarida) now preparing markets for rate cuts later this year. All now say inflation rate of 1.5% justify cuts even if US economy keeps growing

Apr 14
#TaxDay Tomorrow is ‘taxday’. For an analysis of how much businesses, corporations, investors and the 1% are getting from the Trump 2018 tax cuts–and how the middle class is paying for it all–read my latest blog piece ‘Trump Whacks the Middle Class’

Apr 12
#USdeficit Latest govt data show US budget deficit widening in first half (Oct-Mar) of current fiscal year: $691 billion. Annual run rate projects deficit of more than $1.3 trillion for current 2018-19 year; watch for even more in next 2019-20 budget when recession hits late 2019

Apr 9
#Democracy means the people are sovereign & may delegate that to elected representatives. But Trump’s attorney general, Barr, says no. Congress won’t get to see actual Mueller rept. Where does the US Constitution say anything about grand juries, or Congress has no right to know?

Apr 8
#Fed Trump nominates 2 political sycophants to Fed board. For why the Fed is NOT independent, read my 2 latest articles (“Trump v. Powell” & “The Capitulation of Powell & the Fed”) at (link: http://jackrasmus.com) jackrasmus.com (also Counterpunch blog & European Financial Review magazine, Feb. 19)

Apr 3
#globaltrade Data for slowing global trade show possible accelerating downtrend. After 4.6% growth in 2017, down to 3% in 2018. Most ominous, fourth quarter 2018 actually declined by -0.3%

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The following is my commentary on special counsel, Mueller’s, public nine minute statement before the cameras today on the Trump investigation. Why no indictment. Why no impeachment yet. Despite massive evidence of obstruction of justice and the investigation, which continues still almost daily.

“Today special counsel Mueller went before the cameras and in nine minutes essentially said his report was all he had to say and he wouldn’t go before Congress, even if subpoenaed, to say anything else.

Mueller summarized his recent report in the nine minutes. Here’s what he concluded were its main points:

First, there was insufficient evidence to conclude Trump colluded to a criminal extent. Insufficient evidence. Not no evidence. Insufficient. And much of that was destroyed by Trump (erased emails). Or Mueller couldn’t get it because the Trump administration wouldn’t release it. Or key witnesses refused to testify to the Muller commission, including Donald Trump Jr. who had direct conversations with the Russians but was prevented talking to Mueller by Trump from speaking. Which raises the question: why didn’t Mueller subpoena Trump Jr.? Or even Trump himself? After all, special prosecutor Starr subpoenaed and questioned Bill Clinton in his impeachment. Why were the Trumps let off the hook by Mueller?

In short, the first conclusion was that some kind of collusion between Trump and the Russians was likely, according to the Mueller Report, but not enough evidence was provided to prove the more demanding charge of criminal intent.

Second, in contrast, the Report concluded there was an abundance of evidence that Trump obstructed the investigation. In fact, multiple times and in various ways. Take a look at the summary of evidence on Trump’s obstruction of justice in vol. 2 of the Mueller Report. It’s overwhelming.

Nixon was impeached in 1974 in large part based on his obstruction of the Watergate investigation. And if obstruction is a criminal act, why then did Mueller not also indict Trump on that evidence, as Nixon had been?

In the Nixon case, impeachment was actually based on three findings: Nixon was found to have engaged in obstruction of the investigation of the “Watergate” burglary inquiry, of misuse of law enforcement and intelligence agencies for political purposes, and of refusal to comply with the House Judiciary Committee’s subpoenas.

The Mueller report substantiates without a doubt that Trump obstructed the investigation many times and in many ways. But History here is repeating itself, as they say. Trump’s recent order to have his Justice Dept. start investigating the origins of the Mueller investigation, using law enforcement and intelligence agencies, is an act for which Nixon was also impeached. It’s using government agencies to go after political adversaries. And then there’s Trump’s recent additional order in recent weeks, that no one in his executive branch should respond to Congressional subpoenas if called on to testify before the House (which includes Mueller, by the way, who technically works for Trump as a member of the Justice Dept. Maybe that’s why Mueller stood before the cameras and won’t stand before Congress). As in the case of Nixon, refusing to cooperate with Congress in an investigation is also an impeachable act.

So Trump is not only impeachable based on his actions and events that preceded the Mueller Report release. He’s impeachable based on his repeated follow up acts since the Report. In other words, the obstruction continues.

So why is Trump not being impeached? Do you hear that Nancy Pelosi? (Not that Nancy doesn’t already know, of course). Pelosi’s excuse is that impeachment might cause the Democrats to lose the House in 2020 and the presidency. She should tell that to the Republicans who, after their failed impeachment of Bill Clinton, actuallyl gained House seats in 2000 and won the election that year as well! So much for false historical analogies.

This leads to the third essential, and most important, point made by Mueller today in his brief appearance before the cameras: Mueller said he couldn’t indict Trump, based on the rules of the Justice Department no matter what were Trump’s criminal acts. What? Trump engages in criminal acts but is above the law simply based on a rule his own Justice Dept. created to protect presidents while in office?

Mueller apparently places his obligation to abide by a rule created by the bureaucracy above his obligation to recommend action due to obvious criminal activity! Maybe that’s the new modus operandi of the FBI, of which he is a former director.

Mueller was supposed to be the paragon of right and justice, according to the eastern elite establishment media that elevated him to a rank just short of secular saint during his investigation. He was the incorruptible, a straight shooter. So how does one explain Mueller’s decision to place bureaucratic rules above the prosecution of criminals then?

Is it because he’s always been a Republican and Republican pols always cover each other’s ass? Or maybe he just preferred to toss the hornet’s nest into the lap of Congress and retreat to the sidelines to personally avoid being engulfed by the firestorm that might result if he indicted Trump. Or maybe he just didn’t want to go ‘head to head’ with Justice Secretary, Barr, who happens to be an old buddy of Mueller. Their families have reportedly socialized together for years. Of course, I would not think of suggesting that had any effect on Mueller’s decisions in his report.

Regardless the his motive, before the cameras today Mueller made it clear he agrees with the Executive-Justice Dept. rule preventing him from indicting Trump for criminal obstruction of justice—examples of which abound in the report. That’s the real take-away from Mueller’s Report and his 9 minute historical contribution to the further demise of Democracy in America.

Just consider that carefully folks. It’s worth repeating. That interpretation, that rule, means a president can engage in any kind of criminal act. He could launch world war III on a whim. He could order the incarceration of protestors en masse. He could strangle his grandmother on the white house lawn, but nevertheless he can’t be indicted because it, the Justice Dept., issued a rule that said he can’t while in office!

You know what that is? That’s Tyranny. Which is the definition of someone in power who is ‘above the law’.

We now have a tyrant in the oval office and the Justice Dept., the highest government office responsible for upholding law and prosecuting criminals, simply says it’s not allowed. What bureaucrat assumed the authority to make that rule?

Barr and Mueller agree that the Justice Dept. rules preventing indictment of a sitting president for criminal activity is based on the US Constitution. Oh Yeah. So where does the Constitution say that? I couldn’t find it anywhere in Article II of the US Constitution on the Presidency. Nor in Article I on the legislative powers of Congress. Nowhere does it say a rule created by a department of the executive branch of government negates criminal law. Or can stop an investigation of the president relevant to impeachment proceedings.

What I did find is that the Constitution doesn’t even require a criminal act to justify impeachment. (Hear that Nancy?). Criminality certainly strengthens the case for impeachment. And we have now three clear cases of criminal activity by Trump that a former crook, Richard Nixon, was impeached on: obstruction of justice, using law enforcement and intelligence agencies to investigate his political opponents, and refusing to respond to Congressional subpoenas.

So here we are in 2019. A President is above the law. Bureaucratic rules absolve criminal activity. The president continues to move toward unilateral governing by the executive branch, thumbing his nose at the legislative. Trump repeatedly violates the US Constitution by arbitrarily diverting money appropriated by Congress for specific legislation to whatever he wants. He orders investigations of his opponents—i.e. McCarthyism write large. He orders employees of the Executive branch to refuse to cooperate with Congress, including subpoenas, ignoring Congress’s Constitutional right to investigate. He repeatedly invokes phony ‘national emergency’ declarations to take unilateral action, bypassing Congress. He has publicly declared he will pardon himself if convicted. And so it goes, as the US drifts into a bona fide Constitutional Crisis not seen since the 1850s.

What’s next? Could Trump refuse to leave the White House if defeated in 2020? Don’t think that’s outrageous. It’s more than just possible.

And what would the leaders of the Democratic party do in that case, when they can’t even show enough backbone to take up their Constitutional duty to confront a criminal in the White House, who almost daily abridges their Constitutional rights and marginalizes them as a governing body.”

Jack Rasmus
May 29, 2019
Dr. Jack Rasmus is author of the forthcoming book, ‘The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Policy From Reagan to Trump’, Clarity Press, September 2019, and the recently published ‘Alexander Hamilton and the Origin of the Fed’, Lexington books, March 2019, and ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Rope’, Clarity Press, August 2017. He blogs at jackrasmus.com, tweets at @drjackrasmus, and hosts the Alternative Visions show on the Progressive Radio Network (http:..alternativevisions.podbean.com).

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Listen to my May24 Alternative Visions radio show for my initial analysis how the US-China trade war is showing signs of transforming into a general US-China economic war involving dimensions beyond just trade and goods tariffs. How US neocons prefer this development of a broader economic war with China, and how Trump may use it to mobilize his political base and resurrect his ‘economic nationalism’ theme for the 2020 elections.

    TO LISTEN GO TO:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

    SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Dr. Rasmus reviews events of the past week by Trump and China that show increasing evidence the ‘trade war’ is now morphing into a more general ‘economic war’ after the breakdown of negotiations earlier this month. The measures beyond tariff actions taken up by the US are reviewed, including choking off money capital flows, sanctions on both US and China corporations, direct attacks on China companies expanding, US pressure on allies, going after academics participating in research with Chinese. Rasmus predicts Trump will eventually push for delisting of China corps from stock exchanges, force divestiture of US joint production with China, increase pressure on Australia, Brazil, other commodity producing countries to restrict sales to China, and even interdict shipments of Iranian and Venezuelan oil to China if need be. China’s counters to the US beyond just tariffs include slowing buying of US Treasuries now occurring, allowing its currency, Yuan, to devalue beyond 7 to the $1, mobilizing China consumers to stop buying US products, restrict export of ‘rare earth’ minerals to US producers, impose non-tariff barriers on US companies, stop buying US farm goods again, increase subsidies to China companies, step up buying of Iranian oil, exempt US companies from its 51% foreign ownership rule, etc. Trump and Neocons clearly plan to US China trade war as excuse to ramp up ‘economic nationalism’ theme in 2020 elections and blame China US slowing economy. The show concludes with commentary on 5 reports issued this past week: the Fed’s Household Survey showing 40% can’t afford $400 for emergencies; the Institute of Taxation report showing large profitable companies (Amazon, IBM, Chevron, Prudential, etc.) were written $80 billion in rebates in 2018; Mckinsey report showing Labor’s share of national income has now fallen to 56.7% from 65.4% (more than $1.3 trillion a year); and the Wall St. Journal reporting US capital spending rose only 3% in 1Q19 compared to 20% a year earlier, 1Q18, despite Trump’s multi-trillion dollar tax cuts given them.

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For my analysis of the meaning of China President, Xi, declaration to China populace to prepare for a ‘Long March’ struggle with the US over trade and technology, listen to my 20 minute interview with ‘Critical Hour’ radio.

GO TO:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VmfkBrzLtOCxeSIXNuZq3Di7CDfcwobI/view

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Listen to my 30 minute, Part I, interview with ‘Radio For All’ on the role of financial asset markets (i.e. stocks, bonds, currencies, derivatives, property values, etc.) as causes of growing income inequality in the US.

How the US central bank (Federal Reserve), private banks, and shadow banks in the 21st century have become the main drivers of accelerating US income inequality.

In the interview Dr. Rasmus summarizes the major themes of his recently published books: ‘Alexander Hamilton and the Origins of the Fed’ (March 2019) and ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes: Monetary Policy and the Coming Depression’ (August 2017), explaining how the Federal Reserve originated out of the private banking system and how capitalist banking in the US has evolved since 1781.

How income concentration among the wealthy has been bloating financial markets and creating financial driven income inequality, and why the Fed now performs a primary function of subsidization of incomes for investors, corporations, general business, and the wealthy 1%.

Rasmus explains how the prime objective of US monetary policy today is stabilizing financial asset markets and subsidizing capital incomes–not ensuring 2% inflation or any other announced ‘target’. Why the stock market fell 30% last November-December 2018 and why it recovered after the Fed stopped raising interest rates. Trump vs. the Fed and the capitalist myth of central bank independence.

    TO LISTEN TO PART I GO TO:

http://www.radio4all.net/files/cheryl@ct911truth.org/4212-1-JACK_RASMUS_PART_1.mp3

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TO listen to Dr. Jack Rasmus and other panelists discuss and debate the escalating trade war between US and China (first half hour)–and the developments behind the US preparation for war with Iran (2nd half hour)–go to the following hour- long radio show of May 17, 2019.

Go To:

https://sputniknews.com/radio_the_critical_hour/201905181075106481-All-You-Need-To-Know-About-Why-the-US-and-China-Trade-Talks-Failed/

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For my Alternative Visions radio show of May 17, 2019, listen to my Comparing of Watergate & Nixon Impeachment with Trump/Russiagate today; Why Mueller refused to indict Trump; and why Dem party leaders are continually out-maneuvered by Trump? In the first half of the hour long show, listen to the fallout and latest events this past week of the collapse of US-China trade talks & what may lie ahead as the US shows growing signs of US economy weakening.

To Listen GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-russiagate-watergate-compared-trade-war-fallout/

Or Go To:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Rasmus discusses events since the collapse of US-China trade deal a week ago. Who reneged on the deal? China or US? China & Trump responses of past week. (read jackrasmus.com blog piece: ‘US-China Trade War: Hiatus or Busted Deal?’)Review of Trump’s latest ‘job killer’ immigration proposals and US economy continuing softening per latest data on retail sales-industrial production collapse in April. Second half of today’s show addresses the Mueller Report and growing signs of Constitutional Crisis in the US. What the ‘Frontline’ TV show last week revealed re. ‘collusion’. Reading the Mueller Report re. ‘obstruction’. (p. 277- of Washington Post publication of Report). Rasmus compares the Nixon impeachment with the current foot-dragging and refusal by Pelosi-Shumer to impeach Trump. What’s different today from 1970s re. impeachment?: divided country, radical right media power, stacked Supreme Court now in favor of Trump, Trump’s personality vs. Nixon’s, the decay of both political parties, and repeated strategic and tactic errors by Dem party leadership. Why Mueller failed to indict Trump on collusion while showing overwhelming evidence of same. How Trump is outmaneuvering Dem leadership again.

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My comment on declining quality & pay of US jobs, expansion of underemployed and precariate work, and even worse impact of AI and new tech on jobs 2020-2030. Why neither markets nor guaranteed income will reverse the worsening job and pay crisis. Watch the Youtube interview:

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