My Tweets on US & Global Economy–April & May 2019

Trumponomics, American First, US-China Trade War–Audio Interview »

My Tweets on US & Global Economy–April & May 2019

June 2, 2019 by jackrasmus

For succinct commentary and predictions on key developments in the US and global economy during the recent months of April-May, check out my following tweets. (Join me at @drjackrasmus to receive my future tweets as posted)

May 29
#yieldcurve The 10 mo. Treasury bond is now priced below that of the 3 mo. Treasury bill, a degree of inversion not seen since 2007; and an inversion that has predicted every recession since 1955. My prediction of US recession by late 2019 comes closer.

May 28
#Japan While Europe’s economy is now slowing rapidly approaching stagnation, and US weakening noticeably, don’t forget 3rd largest economy, Japan, where both consumer spending & Bus. investment contracted 1Q19. As $US declines, Yen will rise, deepening Japan recession’s recession

May 25
#USWages Mckinsey Consultants report on the decline of US Labor’s share of income (e.g. income inequality) shows in 2000 Labor’s share national income=63.3%. In 2016=56.7%. That’s -6.6% and $1.3 trillion/yr. less every year (2017 national income=$19.9T). Capital incomes up $1.3T)

May 25
#Trumptaxcuts Institute on Taxation & Economic Policy’s just issued report shows following companies not only paid NO TAXES last year but got refund checks from the IRS: Amazon, Delta, Chevron, GM, Duke, IBM, Prudential, Jetblue, Gannett, & others. Rebate total $79 billion

May 24
#Fed Fed’s annual household financial survey yesterday showed 40% (130m + households) don’t have $400 for emergencies (i.e neither cash, savings or credit cards). That’s >50 million. (27% have to borrow from friends or sell personal assets; 13% can’t even do that).

May 23
#TaxReform New report released by Bloomberg Business Week (latest issue) shows the richest 0.1% have stuffed $7.6 trillion offshore to avoid taxes. Meanwhile, F500 corps gave US shareholders in 2018 another $1.4 trillion in buybacks & dividends. 2019 running at $1.5T.

May 21
#USeconomy My prior posts showed US GDP basics very weak in 1Q: consumer spending up only 1.2%. Then April ’19 retail sales -0.5%. Now 1Q capital spending data in: only up 3% (vs. 20% year ago). Fixed investment only 2.7% vs. 4Q18 5.4%. All this before China trade breakdown.

May 21
#Fed Chicago Fed index of national econ April activity turns negative more than analysts’ worst forecast. Prior months also revised down & neg. 3 mo. ave. Feb-March also neg. All this before Trump trade war escalation. My forecast: no China trade deal at June G20 mtg either.

May 5
#Chinatrade China-US trade ‘make or break’ this week. Trump follows hardline anti-China advisers & threatens higher tariffs before final mtg this week. Hardliners raise impossible demand China share tech with US to scuttle deal. US Neocons now running US trade & foreign policy

May 4
#USjobsReport For my deeper analysis of the april 2019 just released US jobs report, and why the labor market is much weaker than the unemployment and jobs creation numbers suggest, go to my blog at (link: http://jackrasmus.com) jackrasmus.com and to my April 3 radio show link at the end of the blog

May 1
#Negativerates ECB neg. rate now -0.4%; ECB to lower further to follow Fed. Total Neg. EU debt rose from$6.2 trillion to$10.1 in just last 12 months. ECB neg. rates supposed to = more bank lending; Instead, lending falling & money flowing to US. EU banks are locus of next crisis?

May 1
#Fed meets today. Trump & Kudlow call for 1% point rate cut in Fed funds rate, as global economy slows driving capital flows from EU, EMEs, JP to US & driving up US$. Argentine Peso, Turkey Lira & Euro down 10%-20% so far 2019. US MNCs offshore profits (GM,GE,etc) taking big hits

Apr 26
#GDP 1st Qtr US GDP driven by temporary excess inventories & import effects. 80% of economy–bus. investment + consumption–grow only at 2.7% (structures & equipment flat) and 1.2%. With Trump tax cut effects now over, Trump to bet on China trade deal & Fed rate cuts for 2019-20

Apr 20
#Fed As a sign of more Fed capitulation to political pressure by Trump & investors, Fed district presidents & vice-chair (Evans, Kaplan, Clarida) now preparing markets for rate cuts later this year. All now say inflation rate of 1.5% justify cuts even if US economy keeps growing

Apr 14
#TaxDay Tomorrow is ‘taxday’. For an analysis of how much businesses, corporations, investors and the 1% are getting from the Trump 2018 tax cuts–and how the middle class is paying for it all–read my latest blog piece ‘Trump Whacks the Middle Class’

Apr 12
#USdeficit Latest govt data show US budget deficit widening in first half (Oct-Mar) of current fiscal year: $691 billion. Annual run rate projects deficit of more than $1.3 trillion for current 2018-19 year; watch for even more in next 2019-20 budget when recession hits late 2019

Apr 9
#Democracy means the people are sovereign & may delegate that to elected representatives. But Trump’s attorney general, Barr, says no. Congress won’t get to see actual Mueller rept. Where does the US Constitution say anything about grand juries, or Congress has no right to know?

Apr 8
#Fed Trump nominates 2 political sycophants to Fed board. For why the Fed is NOT independent, read my 2 latest articles (“Trump v. Powell” & “The Capitulation of Powell & the Fed”) at (link: http://jackrasmus.com) jackrasmus.com (also Counterpunch blog & European Financial Review magazine, Feb. 19)

Apr 3
#globaltrade Data for slowing global trade show possible accelerating downtrend. After 4.6% growth in 2017, down to 3% in 2018. Most ominous, fourth quarter 2018 actually declined by -0.3%

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

2 Responses

on June 3, 2019 at 9:45 am | Reply Oscar P

Very curious of your take on the new Mexico tariffs announced last week, Dr. R
on June 3, 2019 at 10:07 am | Reply jackrasmus

THis is all about Trump pumping up his political base with a renewed, even more intense ‘economic nationalism’ before the 2020 election–i.e. it’s an immigration move not a trade move. That is, it’s about politics, not economics. Mexico will make concessions. How can it not. 80% of its exports are to the US (some major percentage of which is US companies sending goods and parts to the US). AMLO has already signaled he’s willing to concede. Some minor, very visible concessions will be made. Trump will grossly exaggerate them, and he’ll claim to his base ‘see what I did by being tough on all those ‘foreigners’–poor folks and governments both. This is part of what I call Trump’s ‘phony trade war’ on allies. His modus operandi is to make a big threat, get publicity, agree to token changes, and exaggerate what he did to his base. Trump is president for the 40% and not the USA. The other 60% is Trump as president for himself and re-election. Everything he does re. Trade and foreign policy in general should be viewed through that re-election prism.

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