Pundits left and right are calling the current situation in the US labor markets a ‘general strike’. They are wrong and reveal their misunderstanding of labor history. But it is a Great Strike Wave, the most significant since 1970-71.
Listen to my Alternative Visions radio show of October 15 where I follow up commentary of my recent print publication on ‘The Great Strike of 2021’–and also begin an analysis of the emerging inflation wave and why it’s not ‘temporary’ as the Fed and others have been saying.
The Covid induced Great Recession of 2020-21 has fundamentally restructured the US (and global) economies in ways mainstream economists and politicians do not yet understand. The current recession has entered a new phase of weak recovery of the real economy (a ‘rebound’ not sustained recovery as I call it) that will be followed by a ‘relapse’ of the real economy again fourth quarter 2021, i.e. a repeat of last year’s 2020 trajectory of the economy in which a summer rebound due to reopening the economy was followed by a relapse and near stagnation of growth in the second half of the year (as is now occurring again). Forget using GDP as an indicator of recession. It is flawed and only defines a phase of a recession. The current US and global condition is a Great Recession 2.0, which is defined–like all Great Recessions–by a major initial crash (early 2020) followed by short, shallow and partial recoveries which are then punctuated by further periods of anemic real growth, growth stagnation, or even double digit contractions in the weakest global economies. Great Recessions are also associated with severe financial side instability. But that financial instability may occur either ‘before’ the real economy’s crash (as in 2008) or may occur after it (2022-23?)
To Listen to the Radio Show GO TO:
SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT
Dr. Rasmus discusses his article, published last Monday, ‘The Great Strike of 2021’. Why are 5 million US workers not returning to work? Rasmus explains why and how they’re coping ‘withholding their labor’ as the economy reopens. It’s a strike wave of the lowest paid and most abused US workers. Signs their strike example may be spilling over to union workers now striking as well. Rasmus compares the 2021 strike wave with the last strike waves of 1970-71 and 1945-46. (Check out his blog, http://jackrasmus.com for recent articles on the subject). In the second half of the show the current escalation of inflation is discussed. Why Biden’s recent measures to put LA ports on 24/7 work schedule will not have much affect. Why the capitalist global supply chain is in chaos and why supply-driven inflation will not be temporary but continue well into 2022. Rasmus explains ‘stagflation’ likely coming, as US GDP and economic recovery is faltering 3rd quarter 2021 while inflation continues to escalate.
Dr. Rasmus received quite a compliment from Reich and Krugmann: since they are using his idea of the General Strike of 2021. What I would like to emphasize is what is not being said. There is no discussion of raising the minimum wage despite the fact that the more generous blue states have better return to work rates. Or the Biden/Pelosi betrayal of the lower 90% since they reneged on their promises to do so. There is no talk of bringing back critical industries such as medical equipment manufacture to the US despite the fact that the supply chain is broken. There is no talk of a Marshall Plan for Covid (extending Dr. Rasmus’s idea of a “war” against Covid) despite the fact that world wide disruption of the supply chain is related to serious illness and death from Covid.. Without such a Covid Marshall Plan, the poorer countries will remain hopelessly mired in the disease and become vectors for increasingly lethal and contagious variants. There is no talk that we have a dual crisis: a climate crisis and a job crisis and the solution to the one is the solution to the other.
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