Listen to my interviews of last week on the state of the US economy, status of infrastructure negotiations, inflation, spending, etc. Will the US economy experience a repeat of last year (2020) growth trajectory–i.e. surge in 3rd Quarter followed by relapse in 4th–as Republican (+ blue dog Dems) coalition halts further fiscal stimulus, bets on reopening of US economy as sufficient, which then proves insufficient for sustained recovery in 4th quarter 2021? Or will Dems & Biden drop bipartisan bullshit and push budget reconcilation? Bet on the former. Biden has already agreed to McConnell position on Infrastructure by dropping all efforts to raise taxes (and abandoning this past weekend his proposal to have IRS recoup $700B in tax avoidance & fraud) to pay for infrastructure. Biden & Dems have now in effect capitulated on infrastructure bill, accepting McConnell’s on spending and taxing. Dems will now turn to hyping their $3.5T new spending proposals (made up of cuts to original infrastructure + family support bill) knowing it too will never pass. Biden won’t use budget reconciliation for either infrastructure or $3.5T. And won’t abandon filibuster (opposed by Manchin-Senema). In short, fiscal stimulus is over for 2021-22. Covid Relief Act (American Rescue Plan) of last March) will dissipate after 3rd quarter (just as Care’s Act in March 2020 did). Economy will slow again in 4th quarter 2021, as it did last year 2020.
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Or GO TO:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1migo5rUOKTSiiVbDjU7719ClrzxbN7tf/view
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