Jack Rasmus

Check out my tweets for December-January, providing a quick look, short analysis, data, and reports on impeachment, China-US trade deal, USMCA, US jobs reports, Trump’s continuing tax cuts 2019, the Fed, Repo Market instability, US stock markets, student debt, Trump’s $1T budget deficit, Brexit, UK election, pensions crisis, and more. Get my tweets immediately when posted by linking to my twitter at @drjackrasmus.

Jan 20
#impeachment

McConnell’s announces rule: witnesses must be deposed first in secret. Then based on what they say, it will take 51 senators to allow witnesses in trial. That way McConnell screens beforehand what witness testimony is allowed–his fallback if he loses witnesses fight

Jan 20
#impeachment

US Constitutional convention of 1787 debates made it clear: executive privilege is not absolute. Need of evidence takes precedence over executive privilege. Founders then left out of actual Constitution all reference to executive privilege

Jan 19
#impeachment

Republicans’ main argument: House should not ask Senate to conduct trial with insufficient evidence House itself didn’t gather. But insufficient evidence due to Trump refusing to allow witnesses & docs to appear in House hearings. Transparent rhetoric. Circular logic

Jan 18
#Fed

announces will issue new 20 yr. T-bonds. Why? 3 reasons: 1)raise funds to cover>$1 trillion annual US budget deficits in 2020; 2)need for more liquidity for Repo mkt injections; 3)Fed can’t raise rates due to Trump threats. Thus 20yr T bonds alternative. Fed policy a mess

Jan 16
#ChinaTradeDeal

For my more detailed summary and analysis of the just signed US-China Phase 1 Trade Deal, check out my latest blog post at jackrasmus.com

Jan 16
#Chinatradedeal

Trump says China has agreed to buy $40b farm goods in 2020. Fact: China’s Liu He says will buy “as consumer needs and market conditions determine” (read: as Trump reduces tariffs).

Jan 16
#ChinaTradeDeal

The spin is in, exaggerating China trade deal. After 22 mos. & $500b tariffs, US deficit with China down only $56B (Per WSJ today). Per Fed, tariffs cost US business $42B & reduced US households real spending by $806. China still won’t admit to buy $100B in 2020

Jan 15
#ChinaTradeDeal

Phase 1 Mini trade deal today. But ‘mini’ stands for ‘minimum’ gained not ‘small’. Trump keeps $370B tariffs. Says Phase 2 starts soon. China says no plans to start phase 2. China-US trade war now over; US-China tech war by other means than tariffs now escalates

Jan 15
#Yuan

Trump declares China no longer a currency manipulator. A phony claim from the start. China has intervened in mkts to keep Yuan in stable range for years. Rising US $ has stoked global currency devaluations, not Yuan. But Trump claims trade deal cause of stable Yuan

Jan 14
#budgetdeficit

It’s official: US deficit 2019 at $1.02 trillion. (Add another $80-$100B if counting military ‘black budget’ on new weapons that doesn’t show up in print anywhere). Trump’s 2 yrs budget increases>20%/yr on ave. each yr. Causes? tax cuts (60%)+military-social prgms

Jan 12
#jobsreport

Friday’s Dec. US jobs report showed 145,000 net new jobs created. But that should be reduced by thousands as 45,000 GM strikers still returning to work & thousands of US 2020 census workers (500,000 total) still being hired. Real Dec. jobs number closer to 100,000

Jan 10
#USstocks

Wonder why US equity mkts just keep powering ahead? Fed keeps flooding mkts with liquidity: $83B in repos 1-9-20 + $46b on 1-8-20. Add wall of money offshore coming to US+record profits+corp. bond finance+ institutional structure & indexing/ETFs=record demand for stocks

Jan 7
#repomarket

Fed injects another $77b into repo market in just its first week of January 2020. Who now believes the fiction any longer that the Fed only targets real GDP, 2% goods inflation (PCE), or employment? Since December 2018 Fed rates clearly targeting financial asset mkts

Jan 6
#repomarket

after providing $255B to repos in 2019, Fed to continue same vol. thru Jan. & more at least thru April. Dealers now borrowing via Repo Mkt cheaper than from private mkt before Sept. TD Securities: “The repo operations are a band-aid, but the wound isnt’ fully healed”

Jan 5
#Neoliberalism

Read David Baker’s review of my just released book, ‘The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump’, Jan. 2020 at https://jackrasmus.com/2020/01/01/book-review-1-the-scourge-of-neoliberalism-us-economic-policy-from-reagan-to-trump-by-dr-jack-rasmus-reviewed-by-david-baker/

Jan 3
#USeconomy

US manufacturing index (PMI) contracts for 5th month in December, from 48.1 to 47.2. Worst since June 2009. Watch US real investment continue to fall 4Q19 as well, extending decline to 9 mos. US CEOs #1 fear: recession 2020, up from #3 last yr. Now same as world CEOs

Jan 2
#Repomarket

Fed reports it provided net $255 billion in Repos since Sept. That’s ‘net’. Many more billions rolled over. But no year end crisis emerged. What’s next? Permanent Fed Repo (& reverse Repo) facility, a 2nd channel & the sleuth NEW QE. Fed balance sheet now $4.17T again

Jan 1
#Trump

For my analysis of Trump’s economic policies, their deep historical origins since 1978, successes & failures to date, and future prospects, read my just published book, ‘The Scourge of Neoliberalism: US Policy from Reagan to Trump’, now at my blog,

Dec 31, 2019
#Taxcuts

NY Times is 2 yrs too late. In its 12-31-19 feature story admits Trump’s 2018 law cut taxes $5.5T for corps & wealthy. This writer estimated $4.5T at the time (see my blog http://jackrasmus.com). NYT & mainstream media said $1.5T for 2 yrs. Now 2 yrs late admit $5.5T

Dec 30, 2019
#S&P500

27% gain in 2018 refers to S&P profits. Prices were up about same for 9 months until major stock correction in 4Q that reduced stock prices by more than 20%. That loss was gained back immediately in 1Q19.

Dec 30, 2019
#stocks #2:

More reason for record S&P up 30% (& why US real asset investment & productivity now negative): Corp bond debt 2019>$1T and now $10T total. Most goes to stocks & fin. mkts. Gap real v. financial investment 2010 was $60B. Gap 2018 now $540B. Financial > real investment

Dec 30, 2019
#stocks

S&P500

up 30% 2019; after 27% 2018. Why: 1)$1.3 trillion stock buybacks+dividend payouts 2)Fed lower rates 3)US multinational corps record profit repatriation 4)foreign investors sending Wall of Money to US as recessions & global econ slow offshore 5)Fed pumps $ into Repos

Dec 26, 2019
#studentdebt

Now $1.5 trillion. US Govt charges 6.8% interest while banks charge half that to many businesses. Why is govt ripping off students? Sen. Rand Paul proposes 401ks withdrawal tax free to pay student debt. But more than 1/2 households have none & less than $400 savings.

Dec 24, 2019
#NorthKorea

China, Japan, So. Korea meet & ask Trump to restart discussions with Kim. Trump’s Neocon advisors opposed after scuttling last Trump-Kim meet. Don’t want new Trump-Kim meeting. Meanwhile, China playing mediator role re. So. Korea-Japan. What else are the 3 discussing?

Dec 22, 2019
#stockmarkets

Per Reuters, global stock markets’ value in 2019 rose by $10 trillion. US up 30%. Japan, Europe, China 20%. Wage incomes flat to declining for 90%. Income inequality accelerating at record pace. So why all the demonstrating from Hong Kong to France to So. America?

Dec 22, 2019
#tariffs

3 wks ago Trump announced tariffs on Brazil steel. Now he announces their repeal. After 20 mos. of 25% steel tariffs, higher prices, & $1B profits last yr, US steel buying competitors, not expanding output. Cuts pensions 40% & now jobs as USS shuts down mills. Thanks DJT

Dec 21, 2019
#PensionsCrisis

Congress passes SECURE ACT to annuitize 401ks (& let Insurance corps charge 3.6% fees instead of current 401k fees ave. of 0.25%). USA facing retirement system crisis: >half US popul. have no savings; retirees 401k ave. balance only $50k; real pensions collapsing

Dec 21, 2019
#USsanctions

US sanctions EU-Russia gas pipeline Co. Allseas. Why? Sen. Ted Cruz inserts sanctions rider in new US Defense bill for Texas oil buddies. Wants EU stop buying cheaper Russia gas & buy Texas gas now in excess supply glut. Germany won’t agree, so US sanctions Allseas

Dec 19, 2019
#impeachment

An addendum: Pelosi won’t send impeach articles to Senate, if McConnell refuses to allow witnesses in trial. Pelosi: Founding fathers feared a rogue president thus impeachment power. But McConnell also a ‘rogue Senate leader’. Not what Founders thought would happen.

Dec 19, 2019
#impeachment

Pelosi adopts McConnell stonewall strategy: refuse to send impeach articles to Senate unless McConnell lets witnesses testify. Leave impeachment hanging over Trump with new charges possible in 2020. US Constitut. crisis spreads, from Trump v. House to House v. Senate

Dec 18, 2019
#Pensions

French planning general strike to prevent govt raising retirement age. While in USA ave. 401k balance only $18k as real pensions disappear & $4T household savings from interest lost since 2009 due to Fed low rates. Fastest labor force growth=over 65yrs returning to work

Dec 18, 2019
#taxcuts

With US budget deficit set to exceed $1 trillion ($209b in November alone), Congress just voted to give special interests another $427 billion cut: i.e. brewers, winemakers, racehorse owners, health insurers, parking lot owners, etc. Add that to $4T in 2017-18 tax cuts

Dec 17, 2019
#USMCA

US says labor inspectors at Mexico plants are attaches who won’t inspect. Per Mexico’s demand, labor panels composed of US & Mexico reps come first. If panel can’t agree first, no inspector is sent to plant. It’s all a cover up to allow Dems to say they got a better deal

Dec 16, 2019
#USMCA

Are Trump & Democrats lying about final USMCA trade deal? US claims inspectors have access to Mexico factories; Mexico says no. Access rule is in an annex (side letter) not main doc. Was it ever signed by both? Did US make it up so Trump could claim deal? How much is real?

Dec 13, 2019
#Brexit

Check out my blog, http://jackrasmus.com, for my more detailed analysis of why Johnson & conservatives won overwhelming victory over Corbyn & Labour. Short run strategic-tactic reasons but also longer run reasons: rise of nationalism & decline of Social Democracy in EU

Dec 10, 2019
#tradewar

As I predicted weeks ago, US & Trump will put off Dec. 15 additional tariffs on China, per Wall St. Journal today. Which means China won’t buy more US farm goods unless US agrees to remove existing tariffs. Closer to the 2020 election, weaker Trump’s position becomes.

Dec 9, 2019
#Repomarket

Bus. media continues red flag on Repo Mkt. Bank of International Settlements (BIS), bank of central banks, warns again but no answer why Repos still in trouble: tech cause, Fed debt financing, big 4 banks, FX swaps, hedgies arbitraging derivatives? BIS warns of more trouble

Dec 8, 2019
#USjobs

For my take on the veracity of the US recent November jobs numbers, check out my just posted blog piece ‘On Those Questionable Jobs Numbers…Again!’

Dec 6, 2019
#USjobs

Official US jobs grow by 266,000 in Nov. Private sources (ADP) had estimated 67,000. Never in 50 yrs has the gap in forecast been so great. What’s going on? US reduced 2018 numbers by 500,000 earlier this yr; says another 500,000 reduction coming in Feb. Why so big adjust?

Dec 5, 2019
#impeachment For my analysis in depth of the forthcoming articles of impeachment of Trump in historical perspective, in relation to the continuing atrophy of Democracy in America, read my latest blog piece at my blog,

Dec 5, 2019
#USjobs

The largest private payroll processor, ADP, forecasts only 67,000 new jobs created in November. USDL/BLS official figures likely to be higher, as 50,000 GM workers return to work. But those 50,000 are not ‘new jobs’ created. Real number will be what BLS reports minus 50,000

Dec 4, 2019
#USjobs

Watch for possible shocking jobs report this friday. With US manuf. & construction contracting, and services slowing, & hiring of census workers & part time warehouse help now over, jobs may come in at around 90,000, as jobs data join other contracting econ indicators

Dec 4, 2019
#taxcuts

Trump’s Treasury Dept. (run by ex-Goldman banker Mnuchin) is changing rules taxing US multinational corps, cutting another $112B from minimum tax + $150B more allowing taxable US profits diverted to offshore subsidiaries where not taxed. All this after $4T 2018 tax cuts

Dec 3, 2019
#Brazil/Argentina.

Trump claims US tariffs needed cuz Brazil/Argentina manipulating their currencies. Wrong. Peso/real devaluing because $US rising due to US interest rates + offshore money flowing into US mkts. That due to Latin America recessions, provoked by Trump trade policy

Dec 3, 2019
#tradewar

Trump signals China mini-deal may not happen. Source of problem: US won’t agree to lower tariffs but wants China to buy more farm goods nonetheless. Trump ratchets up trade war elsewhere as cover: Brazil-Argentina, Europe farm goods, intensifying attacks on China corps

Dec 2, 2019
#Tariffwars

Trump reinstates tariffs on Brazil/Argentina steel. Why? USMCA trade deal frozen + China mini deal in trouble. So open trade wars elsewhere to divert attention from failing trade policy. Besides, how dare Brazil-Argentina dare cut deals on soybeans & wheat with China!

Dec 2, 2019
#Democrats

Wave of Bloomberg TV ads now hitting all sections of country as he launches his presidential bid. Details suggest he’s more ‘left’ than Warren and a flaming NY progressive. But billionaires say what they think folks want to hear, then deliver for the rich (aka Donald)