A China-US trade deal will be announced later today, per business media reports: Trump caves in, agrees not only to add no new $160b tariffs but also to a 50% cut in existing US tariffs. Trade war is over! Trump puts re-election & farm base before neocon-military demand for tech rollback by China. US-China Tech War now begins in earnest no longer under the cover of trade and tariffs but by other means. 2020 will mean more talks on Phase 2 trade deal with China, but it will be only talk. Nothing new will be agreed to (unless Trump removes all remaining China tariffs which is highly unlikely) during the US election year. Watch Trump to boast, exaggerate and lie about the terms of the deal. Ditto the just also announced USMCA free trade treaty. But after 18 months of Trump trade war little to nothing new has been gained–with China or with all other trade partners.
Trump’s business tax cuts of 2018 ($4T) and trade deals of 2019 + massive business deregulations of 2017 make him the darling of the US business-investor class. Stock market will continue to surge benefiting the investor class and income inequality will now intensify even further. The Trump media machine will now shift into high gear. Democrats’ impeachment message will be drowned out in the noise.
(More detailed analysis soon to follow)
Dr. Jack Rasmus, 3pm, pst, December 12
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