More and more we hear from business, and even mainstream academic economist, sources that the US economy is approaching closer to recession. The 800 pt. one day collapse of USstock markets and surge in government bond prices (and flattening of the yield curve) last week has focused attention on the topic in public discourse. The focus was important enough to have Trump’s economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, trot on stage for interviews over the weekend to deny the US economy was growing weaker, or that the China-US trade war was having an increasing negative impact on business confidence and investment. Trump himself gave an impromptu press conference on the Air Force One tarmac on Sunday to peddle the same theme. ‘All’s well in the US economy’. It’s ‘them other guys that’s in trouble’!
For my take on the state of the US economy, and my year long prediction that a recession is around the corner (and already here in key sectors like manufacturing and construction), listen to my hour long radio show, Alternative Visions, of last friday, August 16.
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TO LISTEN GO TO:
http://www.alternativevisions.podbean.com
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SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:
As more and more independent research arms of banks, big investors, and even economists are now predicting recession is coming (as I have been for the past year), what we hear increasingly from the Trump administration and its apologists is that ‘the US economy is strong and doing fine’. Or, other sources less optimistic are increasing saying recession is coming, ‘but it will be mild this time’. There’s no housing bubble (2007), or tech dotcom bust imminent (2000), or no junk bond crisis (1989), so the coming recession will be mild. In today’s show we examine and discuss both themes—‘the US economy is strong’ and ‘the next recession will be mild, providing contrary evidence and arguments to both. New market sector candidates, contagion channels and transmission mechanisms for the next financial crisis are noted, the much weaker US and global economies as start points of recession are explained, and, how it is argued that monetary and fiscal policies will prove far less effective this time in trying to slow a contracting economy or stimulate recovery. A detailed explanation of what happened in Argentina earlier this past week, and its potential contagion, is addressed. (see my blog, jackrasmus.com, for an in depth analysis of Argentina’s financial asset implosion and what it means in the context of falling financial asset prices now globally).
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