Jack Rasmus

Check out some of the data points in my recent tweets on the economy for July and June–including deficits, debt, trade, tax, interest rates, global slowdown, US GDP, etc. These are short term data points and observations that supplement my longer blog posts and analyses. (To get my tweets as they are made go to @drjackrasmus.

Jul 30

#tradewar

Trump talks tough on China today as trade deal likelihood wanes for 2019. Tough talk designed to give cover for imminent failed deal, and to prepare US investors and public for what’s coming (i.e. no deal in 2019, which means highly unlikely in 2020 as well).
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Jul 29

#Fed

Rate cut July. Why? Slowing US real investment, Manuf., & Construction? Stock Mkt. boost from 2018 US tax cuts fading? Other central banks cutting rates to devalue currency to grow exports? Answer: all above. Will Fed 0.25% cut work? No. Rate cuts at zero bound=little effect
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Jul 28

#tradewar

US-China trade deal slipping away, as I predicted. Trump today admits no deal likely soon, even 2020. His offer to allow some Huawei sales for big China US farm purchases not accepted. For my analysis of negotiations, see my recent article at (link: http://www.kyklosproductions.com/posts/index.php?p=391) kyklosproductions.com/posts/index.ph…
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Jul 25

#ECB

ECB chair Draghi signals more rate cuts. Will wait for Fed first. Markets yawn. So much for ‘forward guidance’ nonsense. EU govt neg. bond rates to fall to -0.5. Rapid German econ slowdown+Brexit will mean more QE. Watch for ECB eventual buying stock ETFs (like Japan).
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Jul 24

#Mueller

3 questions Dems didn’t ask Mueller today: 1.why didn’t you depose (interview) Trump? 2.why didn’t you depose Trump Jr.? 3.Why were you only a ‘special counsel’ and not an ‘independent counsel’–which have enabled you to make a recommendation to impeach for obstruction?
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Jul 24

#USbudget

Dem leaders agree $320B more spending 2 yrs. $150B 2019-20. Split roughly $75B defense-$75B nondefense. But wait! Deal includes $77B in cuts. Mostly non-defense. So Pelosi agrees to zero net non-defense, in exchange for $75B more defense? More ‘smoke&mirror’ politics.
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Jul 19

#BigPharma

has been at war with American people for 2 decades. Prescription drugs account for 53,000 of 68,557 overdose deaths last year. That’s more in 1 yr than the 8 yr. long Vietnam war. Irony: it charges us more to pay for the murders. (& politicians give them the bullets).
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Jul 19

#BigPharma

Why does US spend $333b/yr on retail prescription drugs(+hospitals more)=>$500 billion? Cuz Pharma needs Wall St. money for $400B M&A this year & Wall St. demands higher prices & profits for its lending. Meanwhile 68,557 died last yr from opioid & other drug overdoses
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Jul 18

#USdollar

Why is Trump pushing Treasury to intervene to lower the $? Because slowing global economy mean investors buying $ as hedge, raising value of $. That lowers China Yuan, threatening Yuan devaluation that offsets US tariffs. Also, rising $=less profits of US corps offshore
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Jul 18

#Big Banks

Latest report shows Big 5 US banks’ tax rates fall to 15%-17%, from 35% before Trump 2018 tax cuts. Fed stress tests last month let them now buyback stocks. Big 4 alone plan $135 billion in buybacks in 2019.
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Jul 16

#Income Inequality

Here’s more on primary cause of Income Inequality in US: Combined stock buybacks + dividends in 2005: $500B; In 2007: $800B; in 2014-2016: $1T per yr.; 2018: $1.3 trillion. Est. 2019? $1.5 trillion. Causes? Fed cheap money and Congress investor-corporate tax cuts
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Jul 16

#Debt

Emerging market economies (30 largest) now total $69.1 trillion, per Institute of Intl Finance report. 216.4% of their GDP. Up 50% since before 2008 crash. Mostly concentrated in corporate sector.
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Jul 14

#USdeficits

US Treasury reports budget deficit up 23% first 9 months, at $747b. (not counting est. $75b more in ‘offbudget’ military). Full yr =>$1 trillion. Causes? Trump tax cuts +$100b more Military spending + interest on national debt (to rise to $900b/yr. by 2028 per CBO)
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Jul 13

#tradewar

Who’s ‘winning’ the US-China trade war? Trump says he is. But China’s goods trade surplus with US rising: from $27B in May to $30B June. China exports to US -7.8% over the last 12 months; but China imports from US -31% over past year, falling 4 times faster.
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Jul 10

#Fed

Powell signals today certain 0.25% rate cut this month. Thus Fed rates peaked at 2.375% this cycle, compared to 5.25% in 2007, 6.5% in 2000, and 8% in 1990 prior recessions. Next recession, watch for more QE, corporate bond buying, and even ‘bail ins’ if recession severe
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Jul 7

#DeutscheBank

Announces 18,000 layoffs and creation of a ‘bad bank’ unit to dispose of 74 billion euros of bad loans and assets, as it plans to largely shut down its NY and London operations. Will it be enough? No. Its crisis has just begun
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Jul 5

#Deutschebank

Is Deutschebank headed for a ‘Lehman Brothers’ event? For my analysis of its current condition and potential role in causing financial contagion through its $45 trillion derivatives contracts, read my blog piece today at
Jack Rasmus
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Jul 4

#USDollar

Europe launches alternative intl payments system, INSTEX, in challenge to US$ global hegemony. More countries start to trade outside dollar. For my view watch the attached video at:
How EU is ditching dollar to evade Iran sanctions Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa are moving to integrate their payment systems and bypass the …
youtube.com
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Jul 2

#Income Inequality

. Here’s 2018-19 data that tell much of the cause of income inequality in US: Stock buybacks+ dividends = $1 trillion a year since 2011. Last year $1.3T. This year forecast $1.5T. Compare to Labor’s share of US natl income, now 56%, down from 65%. That’s -$1.5T.
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Jun 30

#tradewar

For my analysis of the G20 meeting in Japan and the status of the US-China trade war, check out my latest blog post, ‘China vs. US: From Trade War to Economic War’. Go to
Jack Rasmus
Predicting the Global Economic Crisis
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Jun 29

#stockmarkets

Buybacks + dividend payouts 2018= $1.3 trillion; 2011-17 ave.=$1T/year. 2019 to be $1.5T, as Fed gives big banks OK re. buybacks. Big 4 banks est. $102-$136B + big 31 + 2nd tier more =$200B at minimum. Buyback totals 2019 thus easily $1T. Add dividends = $1.5T 2019
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Jun 28

#gerrymandering

US Sup. Court decision today to allow gerrymandering turns democracy on its head: instead of voters in voting booths selecting their representatives, now representatives meet in back rooms to select their voters.
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Jun 27

#Supreme Court

Republican/Trump’s US Supreme Court rules 5-4 to allow Republican red state gerrymandering to go untouched. One more blow to democracy; one big leg up for Trump’s political base. Watch for even more egregious gerrymandering now.
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Jun 27

#US GDP

Fed’s Powell agrees with my analysis that 1QGDP boosted by temporary inventory-trade effects, now fading. Adjusted for both & inflation, 1Q19 GDP grew 1%. Consumer spending revised down to 0.9%. Bus. spending neg. 1%. Income revised down to 1%. Current 2Q19 will be worse.

Jun 21

#Wages

How accurate is official US figure of wages rising 3.2% last year? (It’s an average, covers full time workers only, unadjusted for cost of living). Check out (link: http://Payscale.com) Payscale.com recent survey showing only a -0.8% adjusted wage gain last 12 mos. and -9.0% since 2006.
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Jun 19

#Central banks

Both Fed & Europe ECB growing worried re. global economy: ECB says more stimulus coming as Germany, Italy & other economies enter recession. Fed’s Powell today signals rate cuts soon (July?)due to new ‘uncertainties’ in US mfg., investment, trade wars, brexit, etc.
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Jun 18

#ECB

Draghi action to lower EU rates& resurrect QE to create even more negative rates (now $12T). EXB driving Euro lower to protect EU exports before Fed moves. ECB & China now replying to Trump tariff war with currency war as Euro & Yuan devalue. Watch Trump now settle with Xi.
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Jun 18

#Cryptocurrency

Will FB’s Libra lead to more regulatory oversight of cryptos? You bet. Fed & other central banks won’t tolerate independent money supply creation, when they’re already losing control of it: ditto big banks with the competition. Big lobbyists battle now to follow.
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Jun 18

#Cryptocurrency

Facebook’s Libra plan is to enter Fintech and become a ‘shadow’ bank, with new profit center & revenue stream. Forex transactions now will lead to financial services, to compete with Tencent in Asia & Telegram. Global financial system restructuring accelerates.
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Jun 16

#Jobs

US labor stats count jobs, not workers finding new work. Could jobs data be counting 2nd- 3rd jobs? Govt data says no. But Bankrate survey shows 2018 part time work pay up, from $686 to $1,122/mo. in 1 yr. Either pt wages rose 69% last yr. or pay rose due to added 2nd jobs
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Jun 13

US Deficits

& Debt: $739B for 8 mos. So run rate on 2019 total deficit & debt more like $1.1-$1.2T. Not counting the $75b minimum in ‘black budget/off budget’ (Defense secret projects) that doesn’t get into print.
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Jun 6

#Fed

Central banks worldwide have begun lowering their rates in anticipation of Fed action soon. Are ‘Central Banks at the End of Their Ropes’ (title of my 2017 book)? To listen to my interview why they are, go to (link: http://jackrasmus.com) jackrasmus.com for my 2-part interview by ‘Radio4All’
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Jun 5

#Jobs

Watch for possible shocker US jobs report on friday. If happens, big stock correction and further surge in bond prices as investors rush to safety accelerates.
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Jun 5

#mexico

What’s behind Trump’s 25% more tariffs? Not economics. Not just immigration. It’s election 2020 & Trump’s wall. Trump to use tariff revenues to fund wall. That’s why he says he’ll keep tariffs even if agreement. Tariffs are independent revenue source to bypass Congress.
Dr. Jack Rasmus
@drjackrasmus
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