Listen to my most recent radio show and my discussion of the global rush into government bonds, driving down rates (many negative in Europe/Japan), flattening and inverting yield curves, and raising red flags of recession growing nearer.
To Listen GO TO:
http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-global-bond-markets-flashing-recession-red/
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http://alternativevisions.podbean.com
SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT
Rasmus explains how more yield curves have begun flashing warning of imminent recession, resulting in investors and businesses rushing into bonds everywhere as harbinger of recessions on the near horizon. How the latest yield curve for 3 m o. v. 10 year Treasuries has inverted and the Fed interest rate on overnight loans is now the same as the 10 yield T-bond. How the yield curve has accurately predicted the last seven recessions in the US. The recent shift in central bank policies in US and Europe are discussed and how globally 22% of all debt now pays negative interest, up from 13% last year, $10 trillion of bonds now are negative, up from $5.7T in just one year. Rasmus discusses other events, including record stock buybacks now running at $900 billion a year, the renewed crisis in Turkey’s currency, the Lira, US financial imperialism and US special forces now in 143 countries, the new Trump-right wing ideological offensive taking form, the US trade team now in China, Trump’s new attack on the ACA, and the likely scenario for the Mueller Report’s release.
Dr. Jack Rasmus @drjackrasmus
Jack Rasmus 
Reblogged this on Taking Sides.
My concern with the flattening of the interest curve is not so much whether or not it is a good predictor of economic recession but whether or not it is self-referential. My crude understanding is that what is happening is that the Davos crowd is getting out of the stock market and rushing into bonds so the short-term yield and the long-term yield are virtually identical. This is consistent with a prior broadcast which indicated that many participants at the Davos conference were quite gloomy as to the prospects for the global economy in the near future. So one part of the business community is taking the exact opposite view that the mainstream economic press takes. As an aside, I really don’t understand what the term negative interest rates means
Yes, investors (global finance capital elite & their shadow banks) are ‘cashing in’ stocks and moving to bonds, at a time when the Fed had raised short term rates. The shift has briefly stabilized, as expectations of a trade deal with China are closer to realization, as China data appears now to stabilize, and as the talk is now that the Fed will lower rates this year as well, and other central banks are quickly following its lead (as they always do). A hard Brexit may again reverse the reverse. Or if Germany’s weakening economy continues, or US indicators accelerate their softening trends. We’re at an economic ‘high tide’ where the flow has not yet reversed decisively in financial markets.
Negative rates refer to Euro and Japan sovereign bonds offering a negative return for buyers of those bonds. In other words, they have to pay their central banks, the ECB and BOJ, to deposit their funds in those banks. It was supposed to, in theory, be a way to force Euro banks and investors to commit their liquidity to real investment in the economy instead of parking it at the central banks among their reserves. It’s a penalty to force banks to invest. But it hasn’t worked. Bank lending continues weak and declining in Europe in particular. Instead of parking it in their central bank, they’re sending it to the US Treasury buying US bonds and bills.