My Tweets July-Sept.: Comments on Major Trends–China, NAFTA,Trade Wars, Fed, Tax Cuts, Wage Myths & Amazon & AI

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My Tweets July-Sept.: Comments on Major Trends–China, NAFTA,Trade Wars, Fed, Tax Cuts, Wage Myths & Amazon & AI

September 16, 2018 by jackrasmus

#chinatradewar: Trump $200b more tariffs on China coming next week=true start of tradewar. Mnuchin-Banker faction on US trade team loses out to anti-China Navarro-Bolton advisors to Trump. Watch US inflation to surge as businesses pass on prices. China’s next move? Stay tuned.
Sept 13

#chinatradewar: Trump announces he’s invited China back to discuss trade. Why? Pressure from US business interests? From Mnuchin-banker faction US trade delegation? Yes. But don’t be surprised if Trump announces ‘deals’ with Mexico, Canada, and China a week before the midterm US elections
Sept 12

#USrecession: Next recession coming, late 2019 or 2020 sure. Policy options poor: Monetary stimulus poor as Fed rates will peak at no more than 2.5%-3% (vs. 5.25% in 2008) + more tax cuts & spending unlikely given Trump’s already $1 trillion annual US budget deficits through 2028
Sept 7

#chinatradewar: US-China on cusp of trade war–but not yet. Trump declared last week he’d raise $200b more tariffs on China this week…but then put it off. As cover, more Trump bullshit bombast this week about additional $267b ($467total) in tariffs. It’s all about Nov elections folks
Sept 6

#Amazon & AI: Read my just published piece, ‘Amazon the Job Killer: Yesterday, Today & (AI) Tomorrow’ at my blog http://jackrasmus.com . Focuses on Amazon development in ‘bots, drones, and Alexa-AI for enterprise segment. Review of recent McKinsey AI study impacts on jobs as well
Sept 4

#Wages in America: The ‘spin’ that wages are rising is nonsense. Real wages adjusted for inflation are negative. Real CPI=3.5%. Nominal wages for 133 million only 1.5%. Real wages thus -2.0%. For my analysis, read my blog piece at
Sept 3

#Argentina Peso: -16% in one day & -50% in 2018. Inflation 31%. GDP -5.8% and falling. Central bank rates up 60%. Economy heavy dollarized debt. Macri govt to raise taxes on exports=fewer dollars to pay debt. IMF lends $50b. Not enough. If deeper crisis this week=global contagion
Aug 28

#NAFTA: Trump will now boast big gains in Mexico-US deal. But won’t say auto content change in deal affects only 3 car models!! (per Bloomberg news today). Phony trade war all about US elections & Trump hype to domestic political base. Watch more tough talk re. China next for same
Aug 27

#NAFTA: As I have predicted, US-Mexico deal today. Canada next. Add prior softball deal with S. Korea + Trump suspends trade dispute with EU until after Brexit. Trump phony trade war with allies (see my blog entries, http://jackrasmus.com ) now clear. Trade war with China is real
Aug 24

#Yieldcurve: Yield curve today for 2 yr. & 10 yr. Treasuries flattened to .22 basis points. Another rate hike could invert it. The curve has predicted 17 recessions, best of any indicator. My prediction again: Fed rate at 2.50% (from 2% now)=recession. Fed’s Bullard agrees.
Aug 20

#ChinaCurrency: Trump says China & Europe are manipulating currencies. But China’s central bank is intervening in markets to keep Yuan up not down. Rising $US is the cause of falling Yuan and Euro. And Trump deficits are causing US interest rates & the dollar to rise. Look in the mirror, Donald
Aug 10

#Turkey: My predicted emerging markets crisis just ratcheted up. Turkey Lira collapsing (-40%). Contagion effects?: Italian-EU banks. Weak EME currencies (Argentina, Brazil,etc). May push Yuan out of band. Global currency speculators running amuck. Big ‘risk off’ shift coming
Aug 2

#trumptradewar: Trump thinks China is Mexico & EU. Thinks he can threaten and bring them to negot. table. Threatens 25% more tariffs. China stonewalling. No negot. likely before US Nov. elections. For my latest update analysis of Trump trade read at my blog
Jul 31

#taxcuts: Trump Jan. tax cuts gave $5 trillion to business-investors (offset by $2 trillion hike on the rest of us). More tax cuts 2.0 coming before November: Congress cutting $1.5t more; piecemeal repeal of ACA taxes underway; and now Mnuchin Treasury rule changes to cut $100B.
Jul 26

#TrumptradeWar: Listen to my 12min. interview with Loud & Clear radio, Washington DC, on July 25, on Trump’s latest tariffs threats to Europe, Mexico, and China and how an intensifying tariff war could precipitate a full blown currency war. Go to my blog,
Jul 23

#Centralbanks: Bank of Japan selloff of US Treasuries today behind US bond yields sharp rise. Will Bank of China follow? Trump deficits+Trump trade war coming home to roost. Are central banks ganging up on Trump? Warning him to halt trade war? US recession 2019 will sink Trump.
Jul 23

#Yieldcurve: One of my most important 2018 predictions: the US yield curve (2y v. 10y. Treasuries) will ‘invert’ by year end of January 2019, as Fed raises rates two more times in 2018 (Fed funds rate at 2.5%) while 10y. T-bond falls to 2.5% or less. Trump Recession 2019 coming.

#Trump v.Fed: Trump dislikes Powell-US Fed raising rates. Ironic. Fed rates rising to finance Trump’s $trillion annual deficits and $12t more US debt by 2028, caused by Trump tax cuts. Trump creates deficits, then complains when Fed must pay for them by raising rates
Jul 20

#Autotariffs: Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on autos is mostly hyperbole, for his US political base before US November elections. (Ditto his latest threat of another $500b China tariffs). Listen to my 12minute radio interview today on what’s behind it at

#Trumptradewar: My predictions re. Trump’s trade war: deal with NAFTA by end of this year. With China in 2019. EU after UK Brexit concluded. It’s mostly Trump election year tactical vote turnout from his base. Media hyping it all. Trump loving the hype–makes him look good to base
Jul 19

#Trumptradewar: Still mostly media hype, with Trump playing to his base. Trump actual tariffs $72b or 2.3% of all imports to US. Responses also 2.3%: EU actual counter tariffs $5b. Mexico $3b. Canada $12.8b. China $37b (same as Trump’s tariffs to date on China imports to US).
Jul 19

#Autotariffs: Trump threats to impose tariffs on EU auto imports a tactical move before meeting. No deal with EU until after Brexit. More Trump election year hype. No trade war…yet. Of $3.06 trillion US imports, only $72b Trump actual tariffs to date, or 2.3% of all US imports
Jul 12

#Trumptradewar: Trump trade war mostly economic theater, driven by US midterm elections. $36b tariffs on China only 5.7% of $635 billion total US-China trade. Trump trade bombast & tariffs for his political base. China will make big concessions on market access & exports. Deal coming.
Jul 12

#taxcuts: Trump claimed his tax cuts would result in US investment surge. Fact 3:US Capital spending (CAPEX) rose 18% 1Q18. Forecast to slow to 10% 3Q18 & 1.7% 4Q18. Small businesses to decline to -11.7% 4Q18. Tax cuts being hoarded. Economic effect already fading.
Jul 12

#taxcuts: Trump tax cuts claimed US multinational corps would bring back offshore profits and invest in US. Fact 2: Money instead going to stock buybacks, dividends, and M&A. S&P 500 buybacks 2Q2018 at record $436b level, up from 1Q18 $242b.
Jul 12

#taxcuts: Trump $5t tax cuts for business & investors promised to stimulate economy and thus yield more tax revenue (per supply side economic theory). Fact: Fed data show 2018 govt tax receipts running 34% below 2017 average

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