Should the Fed continue with rate hikes in 2018, & equity markets correct by 20%, money will flow back into Treasuries & long term bond yields will fall. And as short term rates rise, the yield curve will invert. That’s recession in 2019 (or even by 4Q2018).
Read my book, ‘Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes’, Clarity Press, August 2017, where I predict that the Fed benchmark rate cannot rise above 2-2.25% without inverting the yield curve & precipitating a credit crunch (access from my blog,
Feb 1
US Treasury bond markets began to implode today. Is the stock market far behind? Having experienced events that led up to the dotcom bust that began in early spring 2000, the similarities are great. The difference: the bond markets are far larger and more strategic than equities
Jan 31
The Fed today decided unanimously NOT to raise rates, after indicating 2017 it would 4 times in 2018. What does the Fed know about the US economy it’s not telling us? If the scenario 2018 was 3-4% GDP growth, as politicians tell us, the Fed would have raised rates. But it didn’t
Jan 31
What the US stock markets declining sharply today? Money being pulled out and reinvested in Europe stocks where markets haven’t accelerated to bubble level yet, as in US. Dumping dollars for Euros causing US dollar weakness, despite Federal Reserve rate hikes. A new Fed dilemma
Jan 22
For a 40 minute in depth explanation of the Bitcoin bubble, bust, and what may be next, listen to my ‘Alternative Vision’ radio show at:
Jan 18
For my further commentary on the Bitcoin/Altcoin price collapse this past week, read my blog entry today, ‘Why Bitcoin’s Fallen by Half’, at
Jan 17
Why bitcoin’s (& altcoins) crashing: Demand falling due to prospects of govt regulation & taxation, slow takeoff futures trading, China et. al. ban, money flows to gold. As supply rises due to substitutes, central banks considering own digital currencies, big investors’ dumping.
Jan 12
Bloomberg News story yesterday, that China will stop buying US T-Bonds, was ‘fake news’ (i.e.China’s comment). Why then this story? Is someone trying to manipulate markets in the US? Or is it an unofficial ‘shot across the bow’ by China warning US against starting a trade war?
Jan 9
Listen to my 11 minute interview with ‘Loud and Clear’ radio on the current stock market bubble, and my estimations of when, and by how much, it is likely to correct, as well as the consequences for the real economy in 2019-20.
Jan 5
What’s driving the US stock bubble? Trump’s tax cuts creating 10-30% profits windfall; $1 trillion a year for 6 years of stock buybacks and dividends; low US $ and foreign demand; structural changes in stock markets (ETFs, index and passive investing). 20-30% correction coming.
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