A reader of my just posted ‘The Trump-Goldman Sachs Tax Cuts for the Rich’, recently asked me some questions about Trump that I’m sure are on the minds of many. Certainly US Secretary of State Tillerson, a quote from which was ‘leaked’ today by the mainstream press which apparently Tillerson is not refuting.
Since Trump assumed office I have been arguing he is not a president in the normal sense. He is something of a figurehead that is allowed to perform certain acts, sign bills, welcome his wealthy friends to tours of the White House, go before cameras to promote himself, and spend weekends at his resort in Florida in the interim. (see my piece of ‘Taming Trump’ last November on this blog).
US economic policy is being run by the bankers in his administration, and the foreign policy by the generals and the CIA-NSA guys. (who are buddy-buddy with Exxon CEO Tillerson in the State Dept.
The reader of this blog noted above, had this to say to my recent posted Trump Tax article and what it signifies politically. My reply to him then follows, for what it’s worth, expressing my current opinion of the Trump experience, written from a class analysis perspective. I thought our exchange would be worth a read.
READER:
“Great article.
So the trump tax cuts might keep the bubble inflated a few more years with M&A and stock buybacks.
Do you think the deficit hawks will shut up and allow this to happen?
Or do you think it will get blocked like the repeal of obamacare?
I expect a coalition of some Dems, anti-wall street tea party, and deficit hawks will stop this.
Trump is becoming so toxic, I don’t see him lasting another year.
At some point he will be told to quit – or else.
And the tax cut effort will morph into attempts to save the economy as the debt bubble pops.”
MY REPLY:
“It’s already having the effect on stock markets in the US.
Yes, the deficit hawks have shut up. (But they’ll complain about bailing out Puerto Rico, while opening the spigot for Republican Texas and Florida). Trump will get a partial wall for Mexican border, in exchange for a watered down DACA deal with Shumer-Pelosi.
The big corporate tax cuts will definitely go through; maybe a reduced ‘income passthrough’ for the non-corporate business folks; and the personal income tax cuts will be reduced. To pay for it, the state and local government tax deduction for the middle class will likely go (affects more the west coast and east coast Democrat states), in order to fund some reduction in tax rates for the rich. Maybe five brackets instead of three and with some rate cuts for the $91K and above crowd of a couple percent.
The repatriation tax boondoggle for multinational corporations will pass and the ‘territorial’ tax ended. Also likely the inheritance tax. Some weak AMT will remain possibly.
Will Trump be forced out? Not until the tax cuts for the rich are passed, NAFTA tinkering concluded so its only token, and they take another shot at cutting ACA taxes on the rich and business next year. Or, if he really screws up with North Korea negotiations (which he will eventually do if he continues sticking his foot in his mouth).
In the meantime, the bankers are running domestic economic policy and the generals the foreign policy. Tillerson calling Trump a ‘moron’ and letting that leak, was a warning to Trump from the elite to stay out of negotiations with Korea. The fact that Mattis and McMaster backed up Tillerson in front of Congress, not Trump, was significant. This guy Trump is not really president, but a figurehead the elite are tolerating (so far). They let him tweet off to his content, clean up his mess periodically, and chastise him to ‘behave’, like the spoiled little child he is.
On the other hand, he’s circling the wagons with his grass roots radical conservative base, turns Bannon lose to go organize and if necessary mobilize them, and he keeps agitating that base as a warning of his own to the Republican and Dem. Elites.
As I see it, there’s a struggle in progress between factions of the capitalist class as to whose going to run the government and political institutions. It’s still a kind of coexistence and joint rule, but it’s getting uneasy. They’re united on certain issues, like taxes, but at odds on others like foreign policy and even some domestic policy that might ‘stir populism’ if taken too far too fast.
Anyway, that’s my analysis of the situation at present.
Jack Rasmus”
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