My Tweets on the US & Global Economy-January & February 2014

« The Emerging Global Economic Storm (Print Version)

My Tweets on the US & Global Economy-January & February 2014

February 28, 2014 by jackrasmus

For Readers interested in my day-to-day takes on developments in the US and global economy, my commentary on my twitter account may be of some interest. Here’s my latest two months of comments. (For longer analyses, see my blog, jackrasmus.com, entries. And for feature length published articles, see my website, http://www.kyklosproductions.com, where articles, radio-tv interviews, and public presentations are available.

Follow me on twitter at: @drjackrasmus

Concluding February 28, 2014:

Big China currency drop to continue–will Yuan link to derivatives play similar role that subprimes + derivatives (CDS) did in US in 2008?

Eurozone drift to deflation at 0.8%–statistically insignificant from last 3 months–and before Ukraine crisis his Euro bank lending in 2014

Listen to my radio show, Alternative Visions, every saturday 1pm, eastern time. This March 1: more on China, at http://prn.fm/#axzz26hkFIP6s

Ukraine currency in freefall. Contagion effects on emerging markets Watch out for Austrian banks. EU/US will promise aid, but deliver little

China’s currency decline catching attention. US says it’s manipulating. China denies. Neither mention role of shadow banks playing the Yuan

For my view how emerging markets crisis, China’s economic slowdown, and Euro deflation may converge, go to my blog, http://jackrasmus.com

Recovery Eurozone? No. EZ 0.3% GDP growth not recovery, but stagnation. Drift to deflation, France new ‘bad boy’, German mixed indicators

Japan ‘Abenomics’ QE-liquidity strategy a (mimic of US Fed) not producing real growth recovery, mostly asset inflation & speculator profits

US consumer credit 4Q13 rises at unsustainable near $1 trillion annual rate. No real income growth for most means consumption lag in 1Q14

Holland meets with Obama. What’s it about? New joint push on Transatlantic Free Trade deal, now that TPP is tabled by Sen. Reid until Nov.

Stocks say Hooray to Yellen. No change from Bernanke, slow retreat from QE, and may reverse if real conditions get worse, which they are.

Conclusions my two prior tweets: China turning ‘back to the future’ to export driven and capital inflow driven growth, as 2014 economy slow.

China trade surplus 2013+$188b. Hot money inflow=$242b. Latter going into shadow banks & local mkts=housing & debt bubbles rising

Emerging Mkt capital flight, not just to ‘west’ but to China. Money capital flows into China in 2013=$242B, compared to $16b in 2012.

US jobs low for 2nd month in row. See my predictions of that last Dec. & Oct., in my ‘False Positives’ articles, at http://jackrasmus.com

US auto sales, manuf. & new orders, construction spending all plummeting today. see my prior analyses at http://jackrasmus.com

3rd phase global econ crisis now underway as USA exports crisis to emerging mkts, EZ slides toward deflation, China shadow banks get worse.

Read my contrarian analysis of Bernanke Fed’s performance, ‘Bernanke’s Bank: An Assessment’ at http://www.kyklosproductions.com/articles.html

Fed tapers another $10b. Emerging mkts retreat again. Capital flight to UK-US-EU grows. US durable goods and housing further weaken.

For contrarian view of Obama speech and income inequality see my blog, http://jackrasmus.com

China manuf contracts in latest rept, as global slowdown continues shift to Asia & EmrgMkts, from US and EU, as capital flows back east-west

Official US retail sales rise Dec: 0.2%. Ex-gasoline, less than 0.1%. Retail sales’ bumpy ride 2013: near flat-declines Jan, Mar, Sept,Dec.

Will 2014 see triple dip in US housing? Starts&Permits:1st=2006-08(-40%), 2nd=2010(-18%), 2012-13 decline from 40%to less than 5%

Big question #3 for global recovery ’14: Can China tame its shadow banks and prevent property bubble bust without slowing rest of economy?

Big question #2 for global recovery ’14: will Eurozone ‘epic’ recession (epic=short shallow recoveries followed by relapses) continue?

Big question for global recovery ’14: will goods disinflation in US, EU, and key emerging markts lead to deflation, as Japan prices stalls?

For my contrarian analysis of US jobs market, see my blog, http://jackrasmus.com , ‘False Positives Revisited: Dec. US Jobs Report’, 1-15-14

Real news on Dec.retail sales today=auto sales in big retreat. Rest of retail rise due to deep discounting. Both likely to weaken in Jan-Feb

US stock volatility coming: US jobs market retreat again+EU deflation+France economy sags+China property debt rises+Japan QE effect fades

US Dec jobs plummet, as I predicted. Prior gains based on record business inventory buildup 3rdQtr, followed by low holiday sales=layoffs

China shadow banks have run up debt as % GDP there higher than in US in ’07 and Japan in ’90 CHina rate measures so far have little effect

Eurozone deflation trend continues. 0.8% rate in December, after similar Oct-Nov. Watch for ECB to lower rates again–to no effect.

Last week Boeing Union workers were forced into massive concessions demanded by the company. Listen to their story at http://prn.fm/category/archives/alternative-visions/ …

On my theme global economy is in long-run slowdown, note today’s 4 China purchasing mgrs reports–all 4 in decline nearing 50.0 stagnation

For a 10mTV interview on the 100th anniversary of the Fed’s history of bank bailouts, go to http://www.kyklosproductions.com/videos.html

Starting January 2, 2014

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