Jack Rasmus

Listen to my analysis on Loud & Clear radio today, on the Korean trade agreement reached today between So. Korea and the US. , and the real objectives of Trump’s current trade offensive. Trump is not launching a trade war. Korea is the template for later re-negotiations of NAFTA and Europe trade terms. The soft agreement with Korea exempts it (the second largest importer of steel to the US) from all steel and aluminum tariffs. Trump’s trade offensive is not about reducing imports to the US; it’s about opening up markets further offshore, especially for US banks. It’s about improving the terms for US corporations, in anticipation of the US economy slowing as interest rates rise and as global trade continues to soften long term, as it has been doing for years.

TO listen to my analysis….

GO TO:

https://www.spreaker.com/user/radiosputnik/agreement-reached-on-revisions-to-u-s-so

For my analysis of Trump’s just passed $1.3 trillion budget (and two year nearly $200 billion boost in defense spending), listen to my short radio interview at: https://www.spreaker.com/user/radiosputnik/massive-budget-signed-into-law. Go to 9:30 minutes into the interview for my 18 minute discussion segment.

Read my just published article in the March-April World Financial Review, on the coming consequences of the Federal Reserve Bank’s current policy of 3 more rate hikes in 2018 and more in 2019. Why it will take only 3-4 more hikes to precipitate another credit-liquidity crisis, financial instability, and recession in 2019 if the Fed follows through. Fed rate hikes to 5.25% in 2007-08 precipitated (not caused) the last crisis and recession. But it will take rate levels of only 2.5% in the Fed funds rate or 3.5% in the 10 Year Treasury bond rate this time–given the more serious indebtedness of corporations (i.e. ‘fragility’) today, along with household debt leverage now higher than 2007 as well and government debt at $21trillion and set to rise at $1 trillion more every year. The US economy is even more leveraged today than in 2007 (total US debt $50 trillion in 2007; $70 trillion in 2018).

TO READ THE FULL ARTICLE, go to The World Financial Review website at:

http://www.worldfinancialreview.com/?p=28975

Or go to my website at:

http://www.kyklosproductions.com/articles.html

Listen to my analysis of the three major developments of the past week and how they’re related: $1.3 trillion budget spending increase, Fed interest rate hike, and China trade measures

GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-us-economys-triple-witching-hour-budget-bill-fed-rate-hikes-china-trade-war-03-23-18/

OR GO TO:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Dr. Rasmus looks at three major economic events of the past week: the Trump $1.3 trillion budget bill, the Fed’s latest rate hike (with 6 more coming 2018-19), and the Trade War he launched last week which (as I predicted on this show last week) was really an opening salvo in trade negotiations with China (not Europe, Mexico-Canada, Latin America, rest of Asia). On the trade war, Trump is already exempting the rest and targeting China. But even the China ‘war’ is hardly that. Trump’s opening ‘attack’ amounts to 12% tariffs on $50 billion of more than $700 billion China goods only exports to the US. Rasmus explains how this is all in the long tradition of US restructuring of trade relations with its capitalist competitors. (Nixon did it in 1971-73 and Reagan in 1986). Rasmus deconstructs the budget bill $1.3 trillion, as just the first in a series of war spending hikes totaling more than $1T a year. Along with $3T net tax cuts, it will mean $1T annual budget deficits for the next decade. The opening attack on social security, medicare, food stamps, education and other cuts to pay for it has already begun. Rasmus concludes with his analysis of the Power Fed’s latest rate hikes, and predicts when and at what level further hikes will precipitate another liquidity crisis and recession, as in 2008. (Read his blog, jackrasmus.com, for further written analyses of Fed, Budget, and Trade policies under Trump. Or join his twitter feed @drjackrasmus).

Listen to my recent radio interview on the radio show, ‘It’s the Empire, Stupid’, where I explain the role of the Federal Reserve bank ini the financial crash of 2008-09 and the historic weak recovery. What was behind the 2008-09 crisis, and the US and global economies’ current trajectories. Why the Fed is once again on track to precipitate the next crisis with interest rate hikes underway. (72min. interview)

GO TO: https://www.spreaker.com/user/9119584/empire-episode24-jackrasmus

The US ‘trade war’ is not with NAFTA, TPP, or TTIP(Europe), it will soon be clear the target is China. Meanwhile, US total debt tops $70 trillion, up $20T since 2008, and the US economy will slow by end of year 2018 as consumer spending stalls and business inventories accumulate

Listen to my analyses on my last friday, March 16, Alternative Visions radio show.

GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-us-economic-slowdown-ahead-2018-us-debt-hits-70-trillion-trump-targets-china-trade-03-16-18/

OR GO TO:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

Dr. Rasmus identifies weakening retail sales and business inventories as sources of US GDP sharply slowing later this year. Trump’s tariffs as only opening skirmish in US trade war—with China not the rest of the world. Half of US $810 billion trade deficit in goods is with China. Watch next week Trump actions targeting China trade. Why China will not respond cooperatively. Rasmus puts Trump’s ‘Déjà vu’ trade war in historical perspective, showing how US corporations and politicians have always periodically attacked their foreign capitalist competitors to improve US share of world trade profits, by manipulating US currency and forcing trade treaties. Nixon in 1971-73 (Smithsonian Agreement) and Reagan in 1985-86 (Plaza and Louvre Accords), targeting Europe and Japan, respectively. Trump will target China. The show also addresses the escalating US total debt, from $50 trillion in i2007 to $70 trillion today and what it means, the 10 year anniversary of the Bear-Stearns Investment bank crash of March 2008, the accelerating banking deregulation by Congress underway, and the appointment of economic lightweight Larry Kudlow to Trump’s Economic Council and his support for absurd ‘supply side’ economic ideology.

Listen to my 12 minute interview on Loud & Clear Radio yesterday on the recent US Senate passed legislation to accelerate the deregulation of two dozen very large banks (incorrectly called ‘community’ banks by the mainstream media). While Congress rushes to deregulate the banks, US debt has risen from $50 trillion in 2007 before the last crisis to more than $70 trillion today? Debt-driven financial bubbles are growing, in stocks and other financial securities, and the US economy grows more financially fragile below the surface of apparent economic growth.

To listen to my analysis of the Senate legislation (and pending even more severe House proposals), and my recommendation of a national public banking system with the Federal Reserve restructured as a national public bank and public investment corporation, GO TO:

https://www.spreaker.com/user/radiosputnik/senate-overwhelmingly-passes-bill-to-wea

Read the latest, 4th in the series, summarizing my theory of System-Wide fragility in the global and US economy. US total debt has risen from $50 trillion in 2007 to $70 trillion today, 2018. Read how four decades of restructuring in financial and labor markets have rendered traditional monetary and fiscal policies not only ineffective in stabilizing the economic cycles but have become forces of de-stabilization of the system.

TO read, go to my website, at: http://www.kyklosproductions.com/articles.html

Listen to my Alternative Visions radio show of friday, March 9, for my analysis of Trump’s Steel-Aluminum Tariff Announcement, how its real target is China (which imports less than 1% of US steel imports), how tariffs and the new, aggressive Trade policy is the logical consequence of Trump monetary (rate hikes) and fiscal (tax cuts, defense spending, deficits & debt) policies. Why Trump’s move is in a long tradition of US elites making trade partners pay, as in Reagan 1985, Nixon 1971, and before.

To Listen GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-trump-trade-war-brewing-03-09-18/

Or go to:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Dr. Rasmus takes up the key economic news of the past week that Trump is launching a trade war by raising tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Contrary to press and media, it’s not a general ‘trade war’ but another example of US capitalists—the national ‘America First’ wing allied with Trump in the current case—signaling they intend to renegotiate trade agreements with US trading partners. After announcing, Trump immediately exempted NAFTA partners, Canada and Mexico, the US main steel importers. Trump further announced more exemptions coming for Europe and elsewhere. SO the main target is…China, even though China is responsible for less than 1% of steel imports to US. Rasmus explains how historically the US has always turned aggressive on trade when the global trade pie, or its share of it, was threatened: Reagan did it in 1985, Nixon in 1971, and Hoover in 1930. Further explained is how the Fed rate hike policy underway will raise the US dollar and make US exports less competitive, so the trade renegotiations are anticipating this by making US trade partners pay for the rate-dollar hikes coming. How US trade policy is a response to US monetary policy which, in turn, is a response to Trump tax cuts, defense spending, and $trillion annual deficits and $10 trillion US debt. It’s all US Capital on the offensive in a new Trump aggressive ‘Neoliberalism 2.0’ taking form.

For those more theoretically inclined in economics, read my latest, 3rd installment in a series from my concluding chapter of my 2016 book, ‘Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’ In the chapter I explain my theory of how debt and income interact to create financial crises causing the economy to grow more ‘fragile’ (i.e. prone to financial instability). That process of deepening fragility has been continuing since the last crisis in 2008. At least $20 trillion more private and government debt has been added to the US economy since 2008; another $40 trillion in emerging markets; and trillions more in China and Europe. More than $10 trillion in non-performing bank loans exist now worldwide. Stock and bond and derivatives markets are in bubble mode. Income for financing government debt (tax and foreign T-bond sales), household debt (wages stagnating), and business debt (interest rates rising) are approaching limits and about to decline. With decline will come inability to refinance extreme debt levels, and lead in turn to defaults. Asset prices will then collapse, leading to real economy contraction.

In this third in the series, the discussion focuses on the relationship between financial and real asset investing and how price plays a role as a transmission mechanism. The ‘two price theory’ is explained, and contemporary Keynesian and Classical economist views that money causes inflation are debunked.

To Read go to my website, http://kyklosproductions.com/articles.html