Jack Rasmus

The final part 5 in the series ‘A Theory of Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’ is now available on my website. From the concluding chapter of my 2016 book, ‘Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy’, the summary chapter 19, here serialized in 5 parts, looks at 9 key variables involving credit, debt, income, and terms & conditions of debt repayment, and how their mutual interaction leads to growing ‘fragility’ in the economy making it prone to financial instability events. Fragility is considered across household consumer, business investment, and government fiscal-monetary policy dimensions. How variables exacerbate each other over time and the transmission mechanisms between the three sectors and nine variables.

The US and global economy are growing more fragile since 2010, drawing the economy nearer to yet another major financial instability event.

TO READ: GO TO http://www.kyklosproductions.com/articles.html

To listen to my analysis of the latest developments of the Trump trade war with China,

GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-trumps-dejavu-china-trade-war-04-06-18/

Or go to:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

Dr. Rasmus assesses the past week’s Trump trade offensive, showing its ‘dual track’ focus: go soft on trade and tariffs for US allies (example the recent Korean trade deal and exemptions on steel-aluminum tariffs) while playing ‘hardball’ with China trade. The steel and Korean deals are summarized. Rasmus argues this phony trade ‘track’ is for domestic political consumption for Trump’s base as November elections in the US approach and as Trump prepares to fire investigator Mueller. Trump is using trade to agitate and mobilize his domestic base on nationalist appeals once again. Rasmus argues the second, ‘hard’ track of China trade is about stemming US technology transfer to China that is militarily sensitive, especially AI, G5, and cyber security tech. That’s Trump’s No. 1 objective, for which he’ll trade tariffs on other China imports to the US. The Trump trade offensive is then discussed in historical perspective, comparing it to Nixon’s 1971-73 attack on Europe corporate competitors and Reagan’s 1985 attack on Japan. Why the US periodically engages in rewriting the trade ‘rules of the game’ to ensure US business interests are protected. The Trump trade offensive in relation to recent Trump taxes, deficits, and central bank interest rate hiking underway. Trade as the third policy initiative of Trump’s effort to re-establish a neoliberalism 2.0 policy regime.

Watch my latest interview on the status of the US-China trade dispute (as of this past weekend). What the US wants is limits on Tech Transfer to China as next generation tech (G5, AI, etc.) takes off. Trump will concede on China imports in exchange for Tech transfer limits and agreement. How does the US-China Trump ‘trade war’ compare to past aggressive trade actions by Reagan against Japan 1985 and Nixon against Europe 1971? To watch go to Youtube at:

My analysis of the current state of US stock and financial market bubbles and the growing likelihood of a second major ‘correction’. A look at the forces driving the bubble and the countervailing forces beginning to build that would cause its contraction. Also, how Trump’s trade ‘war’ relates to it all. To listen

Go To:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-us-stock-markets-turn-03-30-18/

Or go to:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

Dr. Rasmus looks at the forces pumping up US stocks, especially Tech stocks and S&P500, and the emerging counter forces that may soon prevail to send US stock markets into another major correction. Forces driving the bubble are continuing record stock buybacks and dividend payouts, and now record levels of merger & acquisitions (up 67% in 2018 and $1.2 trillion) and the Trump tax cuts boosting profits 10%-31% and their distribution into buybacks, dividends, and M&A activity. Forces growing that may reverse the trend and bubbles include: tech stocks peaking and attacks on Tech companies by politicians, Federal Reserve continued interest rate hikes, derivatives exposures to ETFs, cryptos, VIX, a renewed slowing of global economies and trade, China stock market contraction, European non-performing bank loans, and the Bank of Japan’s destruction of corporate bond markets with its QE purchases. Rasmus concludes with the talk of ‘Trade War’ under Trump as a factor threatening stocks. The trade war is phony, and really a ‘war’ targeting China while exempting US allies except for token changes, as evidenced by the just concluded US-South Korean agreement. Trump’s ‘trade war’ with China is discussed in historical context with Reagan’s ‘trade war’ on Japan in 1985 and Nixon’s targeting Europe in 1971. Rasmus concludes Trump vs. China will prove less successful than Reagan-Japan and Nixon-Europe.

Listen to my analysis on Loud & Clear radio today, on the Korean trade agreement reached today between So. Korea and the US. , and the real objectives of Trump’s current trade offensive. Trump is not launching a trade war. Korea is the template for later re-negotiations of NAFTA and Europe trade terms. The soft agreement with Korea exempts it (the second largest importer of steel to the US) from all steel and aluminum tariffs. Trump’s trade offensive is not about reducing imports to the US; it’s about opening up markets further offshore, especially for US banks. It’s about improving the terms for US corporations, in anticipation of the US economy slowing as interest rates rise and as global trade continues to soften long term, as it has been doing for years.

TO listen to my analysis….

GO TO:

https://www.spreaker.com/user/radiosputnik/agreement-reached-on-revisions-to-u-s-so

For my analysis of Trump’s just passed $1.3 trillion budget (and two year nearly $200 billion boost in defense spending), listen to my short radio interview at: https://www.spreaker.com/user/radiosputnik/massive-budget-signed-into-law. Go to 9:30 minutes into the interview for my 18 minute discussion segment.

Read my just published article in the March-April World Financial Review, on the coming consequences of the Federal Reserve Bank’s current policy of 3 more rate hikes in 2018 and more in 2019. Why it will take only 3-4 more hikes to precipitate another credit-liquidity crisis, financial instability, and recession in 2019 if the Fed follows through. Fed rate hikes to 5.25% in 2007-08 precipitated (not caused) the last crisis and recession. But it will take rate levels of only 2.5% in the Fed funds rate or 3.5% in the 10 Year Treasury bond rate this time–given the more serious indebtedness of corporations (i.e. ‘fragility’) today, along with household debt leverage now higher than 2007 as well and government debt at $21trillion and set to rise at $1 trillion more every year. The US economy is even more leveraged today than in 2007 (total US debt $50 trillion in 2007; $70 trillion in 2018).

TO READ THE FULL ARTICLE, go to The World Financial Review website at:

http://www.worldfinancialreview.com/?p=28975

Or go to my website at:

http://www.kyklosproductions.com/articles.html

Listen to my analysis of the three major developments of the past week and how they’re related: $1.3 trillion budget spending increase, Fed interest rate hike, and China trade measures

GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-us-economys-triple-witching-hour-budget-bill-fed-rate-hikes-china-trade-war-03-23-18/

OR GO TO:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT:

Dr. Rasmus looks at three major economic events of the past week: the Trump $1.3 trillion budget bill, the Fed’s latest rate hike (with 6 more coming 2018-19), and the Trade War he launched last week which (as I predicted on this show last week) was really an opening salvo in trade negotiations with China (not Europe, Mexico-Canada, Latin America, rest of Asia). On the trade war, Trump is already exempting the rest and targeting China. But even the China ‘war’ is hardly that. Trump’s opening ‘attack’ amounts to 12% tariffs on $50 billion of more than $700 billion China goods only exports to the US. Rasmus explains how this is all in the long tradition of US restructuring of trade relations with its capitalist competitors. (Nixon did it in 1971-73 and Reagan in 1986). Rasmus deconstructs the budget bill $1.3 trillion, as just the first in a series of war spending hikes totaling more than $1T a year. Along with $3T net tax cuts, it will mean $1T annual budget deficits for the next decade. The opening attack on social security, medicare, food stamps, education and other cuts to pay for it has already begun. Rasmus concludes with his analysis of the Power Fed’s latest rate hikes, and predicts when and at what level further hikes will precipitate another liquidity crisis and recession, as in 2008. (Read his blog, jackrasmus.com, for further written analyses of Fed, Budget, and Trade policies under Trump. Or join his twitter feed @drjackrasmus).

Listen to my recent radio interview on the radio show, ‘It’s the Empire, Stupid’, where I explain the role of the Federal Reserve bank ini the financial crash of 2008-09 and the historic weak recovery. What was behind the 2008-09 crisis, and the US and global economies’ current trajectories. Why the Fed is once again on track to precipitate the next crisis with interest rate hikes underway. (72min. interview)

GO TO: https://www.spreaker.com/user/9119584/empire-episode24-jackrasmus

The US ‘trade war’ is not with NAFTA, TPP, or TTIP(Europe), it will soon be clear the target is China. Meanwhile, US total debt tops $70 trillion, up $20T since 2008, and the US economy will slow by end of year 2018 as consumer spending stalls and business inventories accumulate

Listen to my analyses on my last friday, March 16, Alternative Visions radio show.

GO TO:

http://prn.fm/alternative-visions-us-economic-slowdown-ahead-2018-us-debt-hits-70-trillion-trump-targets-china-trade-03-16-18/

OR GO TO:

http://alternativevisions.podbean.com

SHOW ANNOUNCEMENT

Dr. Rasmus identifies weakening retail sales and business inventories as sources of US GDP sharply slowing later this year. Trump’s tariffs as only opening skirmish in US trade war—with China not the rest of the world. Half of US $810 billion trade deficit in goods is with China. Watch next week Trump actions targeting China trade. Why China will not respond cooperatively. Rasmus puts Trump’s ‘Déjà vu’ trade war in historical perspective, showing how US corporations and politicians have always periodically attacked their foreign capitalist competitors to improve US share of world trade profits, by manipulating US currency and forcing trade treaties. Nixon in 1971-73 (Smithsonian Agreement) and Reagan in 1985-86 (Plaza and Louvre Accords), targeting Europe and Japan, respectively. Trump will target China. The show also addresses the escalating US total debt, from $50 trillion in i2007 to $70 trillion today and what it means, the 10 year anniversary of the Bear-Stearns Investment bank crash of March 2008, the accelerating banking deregulation by Congress underway, and the appointment of economic lightweight Larry Kudlow to Trump’s Economic Council and his support for absurd ‘supply side’ economic ideology.