September 15, 2023 by jackrasmus
Want to know some of the questionable methods & assumptions that go into US official job and inflation statistics? Listen to my September 8 Alternative Visions radio show.
GO TO:
https://alternativevisions.podbean.com/e/alternative-visions-how-reliable-is-us-economic-data/
While the capitalist system has undergone numerous restructurings throughout its history, capitalist elites purpose in restructuring has remained the same: to restore and/or extend their hegemony. The current restructuring, operative since 1978, is called Neoliberalism. The book examines Neoliberalism as both an Idea and an historical practice composed of a particular mix of fiscal-monetary-trade-industrial policies that began with the latest US capitalist restructuring in the late 1970s, continuing to evolve to this day. The book further explains the deeper material forces giving rise to - as well as now undermining - the Neoliberal policy regime, with special focus given to the crisis of Neoliberalism in the wake of the 2008-09 global crash, Obama's failure to resurrect it, and Trump's current doomed effort to restore it in a new, more aggressive form. Evidence why Neoliberalism is destroying US Democracy concludes the book's analysis.
Describes how US federal governments, often in cooperation with the largest US private banks, introduced and expanded central banking functions from 1781 through the creation of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Based on an analysis of the evolution of the US banking system - from pre-1781, through the 1787 US Constitutional Convention, Congressional debates on Hamilton's reports to Congress, the rise and fall of the 1st and 2nd Banks of the United States, and through the long period of the National Banking System form 1862-1913, the book shows how central banking in the US evolved out of the private banking system, and how following the financial crash of 1907 big New York banks pushed through Congress the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, creating a central bank which they then managed for their interests.
(Click on image) CENTRAL BANKERS is a comprehensive critique of central banks’ policies in the 21st century, explaining why the massive injections of free money to the banking system since the 1970s enabled the creation of excess corporate debt that has led to financial bubbles and repeated crises. The book addresses the growing contradictions of central banking, why they are failing in their functions, targets and tools, and proposes a radical democratization and restructuring to transform them to serve the public interest and not the private banks.
(Click on image) LOOTING GREECE, A New Financial Imperialism Emerges. This book - Reveals clearly who calls the shots in the Eurozone—the hardliners, not the remnants and political residue of what was once European social democracy, - Follows the negotiations in their excruciating detail as the Troika tightens the screws from 2009 to the present, - Shows how Europe’s financial elite enriches itself on Greek debt, privatizations and financial manipulations, turning Greece into an Economic Protectorate.
(Click on image): This book offers a new approach to explaining why mainstream economic analyses have repeatedly failed and why fiscal and monetary policies have been incapable of producing a sustained recovery. It explains why the global economy is slowing long term and becoming more unstable, why policies to date have largely failed the trend, and why the next crisis may therefore prove even worse than that of 2008-09.
(Click on image) Obama's Economy: Recovery for the Few, explains how the weakest and most lopsided economic recovery since 1947 has been the direct outcome of failed economic policies of the Obama administration and US Federal Reserve bank since February 2009. Includes a detailed 'alternative program' in the final chapter. Includes the book, a video DVD presentation, and 66-slide PPT slideshow.
(Click on image) Obama's Economy: Recovery for the Few, explains how the weakest and most lopsided economic recovery since 1947 has been the direct outcome of failed economic policies of the Obama administration and US Federal Reserve bank since February 2009. Includes a detailed 'alternative program' in the final chapter.
(Click on image) A theoretical analysis, with historical case examples, of origins, causes and future evolution of the recent--and continuing--economic crisis in the U.S. and global economy. Includes predictions in 2009 of the inevitable failure of Obama policies and more serious crisis to come, 2013-15.
(Click on image) Seven specific reasons why economic recovery under Obama since 2009 has failed for all but the wealthiest few and largest corporations. The book spells out eight specific areas as an Alternative Economic Recovery Program.
(Click on image) The War At Home: The Corporate Offensive From Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush, is a 534 page, extensively researched, nonfiction book that describes the evolution of corporate-government policies from 1980 to 2005 that have shifted more than a $1 trillion dollars a year, every year, from 90 million American middle and working class households to the wealthiest 10% and corporations.
Dr. Jack Rasmus @drjackrasmus
Jack Rasmus 
The 60/40 split among the Fortune 500 as to reporting economic data suggests that the 60% who do not report could care less whether or not there is high underemployment and inflation: they agree with Keynes who established long ago that an economy can bump along the bottom indefinitely regardless of the cost to what we now call the lower 90%. But the WSJ authors represent the 40% who are concerned about continuing interest rate hikes and thus question the fundamental basis of those hikes by the Fed: the economic statistics that the Fed relies upon are so politicized as to be almost meaningless.
Yes, distorted by political influence but I would add distorted also by the deep changes in the US product, labor, and financial markets caused by the unnecessary severe Covid era shutdowns, the impact of which will be felt for years. BLS and Commerce Dept. stats tend to lag to changes in the real economy but lag even more now. Plus the trend in govt stats has been for years to create ‘smoothing’ methodologies that dampen both inflation and unemployment (and in doing so boost real GDP estimates). US inflation as households know is running at least 5-6% per the CPI. But Govt uses the far more conservative GDP deflator index (around 2-3%) to adjust inflation to get real GDP. That yields a 2-3% reported real GDP, when it actually may be negative. Also, GDP was ‘redefined’ in 2013 to add new costs and questionable items (value of Company trademarks, logos, etc.) to add $500B to investment contribution to GDP, which has risen further since 2013. Thus, just the inflation adjustment methodology and the redefinition of what constitutes real investment’s contribution to business spending are two means by which GDP is grossly overestimated in quarterly reports. The mainstream media keeps hyping retail sales growth of 6% (and its boost to consumption), but that’s not adjusted for inflation. If using the CPI, real retail sales is flat; in turn consumption contribution to GDP is also much lower. Add that to the questionable redefinitions of business investment and US GDP is more likely flat at best in 2023. Then realize that it declined YoY in 2021 and rose only 1% in 2022–and all that after an $8 trillion fiscal and monetary stimulus occurred in 2020-21. Yet they tell us (Biden’s tour underway) that the US economy is doing so great. And mainstream economists like Krugman scratch their heads and wonder why the average American can’t see this obvious recovery. Maybe they can, and Krugman can’t because he’s blinded by the statistical distortions being reported